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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/01/30/pa-villspor-med-pal-prestrud/
På villspor med Pål Prestrud. Geir Aaslid. Fra Klimarealistene. (Hockekøllefiguren)
- januar 30, 2022
- 22:05
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Cicero, Climategate, Hockeykølla, Klimapolitikk, Steve McIntyre
Hockekøllefiguren er kjent som den største vitenskapssvindelen siden Piltdown-mennesket, men enkelte fortsetter forsvaret av den selv lenge etter at FNs klimapanel har erkjent at figuren ikke kan forsvares vitenskapelig. Her er noe av det du trenger å vite om Hockeykølla og noen av dens norske forsvarere.
Bakgrunn
Vi skrev 17.desember om Universitetsforlaget dype uforstand, når de ga ut læreboka Teknologi og Vitenskap, forfattet av Ronny Kjelsberg. Boka har et kapittel om klima og miljø, som er på et absolutt faglig og formidlingsetisk bunnivå, og boka er derfor uegnet til bruk som lærebok.
Forlaget fraskriver seg ethvert ansvar ved å vise til forfatterens kilder, hvor sekundærkilden er et kapittel skrevet av Tove Kolset og Pål Prestrud, i en rapport fra De Nasjonale Forskningsetiske komiteene: Forskning og penger (2012). Om forfatter Kjelsbergs forsøk på å rehabilitere den skandaløse Hockekøllefiguren ved å vise til kildene, skrev vi:
«Dette til tross for at USAs statistikere i to offentlige høringer under ed har uttalt at forskningen til Dr. Mann bruker så feilaktige statistikkmetoder at de alene ugyldiggjør forskningen – et sentralt element som det lyves om også fra Pål Prestrud i sekundærkilden Forskning og penger fra 2012.»
Dette falt ikke helt i god jord hos Pål Prestrud, biologiprofessor og forhenværende direktør for statens Institutt for Klimapolitikk – Cicero, som 18.desember i denne kommentaren mente seg krenket.
Han fikk svar: Problemstillingen blir da: Hva om det ikke er sant det meste Hr. Prestrud skriver i avsnittet «Klimaforskere under angrep» i sekundærkilden Forskning og penger fra 2012 ??? For å avklare dette vil jeg gå gjennom hans tekst, og dokumentere i løpet av januar at Prestrud i denne kilden vrir og vrenger, manipulerer og utelater. Oppsummert er det Prestrud skriver usant. Selvfølgelig var Prestrud i 2012 klar over de mange problemene med Manns forskning. og det usanne blir da til løgn siden jeg er tilhenger av å kalle en spade for en spade.
Institutt for klimapolitikk – Cicero – før og nå
I en normal forskningsinstitusjon ville ledelsen tatt ansvar og informert politiske beslutningstagere både om at Hockeykøllefiguren var ugyldig og om tvilen ellers i klimaforskningen. Men Cicero er ingen normal institusjon og de ansattes egentlige og for det meste politiske oppgave er, som vi skal vise, å diskreditere kjent naturvitenskap og etablere Cicero som den eneste tillatte klimavitenskapelige autoritet i Norge (medregnet allierte aktører i klimaindustrien).
Prestrud som leder for det politiske Cicero har sjelden forholdt seg til vitenskapelig integritet, men heller styrt skipet etter ønsket fra dets grunnlegger Gro Harlem Brundtland og hennes kjente rettesnor: Det er umoralsk å tvile.
Det eneste som teller er hva man kan innbille media og politikere i klimasaken, og det går en rød tråd av komplett uetterrettelighet fra Prestruds «Klimaforskere under angrep» i 2012, til Samsets «2070» i dag. Vi kan muligens kommentere Samsets «bok» senere, men objektive analytikere har forlengst registrert hva som i alle år har vært strategien i IPCC-leiren:
De som har et avvikene standpunkt skal svertes, mistenkeliggjøres og henges ut.
Fagredaktør Erik Tunstad, Forskning.no, juli 2007.
Prestruds krig mot naturvitenskapen
Denne krigen har en opprinnelse, nemlig i IPCC-leirens behov for å vise at oppvarmingen i dag er eksepsjonell og ikke kan være naturlig. Deres mandat forutsetter at det er vår skyld og hockeykølla Prestrud fortsatt forsvarer, lenge etter at IPCC har gitt opp å gjøre det, skal være kronbeviset på vår skyld.
Da er IPCCs første hovedrapport fra 1990 svært lite hjelpsom, noe vi illustrerer med figuren under, som viser varmeperioden i Middelalderen (MWP). WG1-rapporten fra 1990 var faktisk så lite hjelpsom at politikerne senere (1995) presset IPCC til å endre budskapet. Presset var så sterkt at IPCC-lederne Houghton og Bolin fryktet at politikerne ville koble vekk all naturvitenskap og gå videre med bare klimapolitikken.
Første del av Prestruds tekst er et forsvar for Ben Santer som måtte ta støyten for tekstendringer han gjorde bak forskernes rygg etter instruks fra ledelsen og etter at øvrige forskere hadde forlatt det omtalte Madrid-møtet, se avsnittet Hardt Vær, side 137. Men Prestrud utelukker nesten alt som er vesentlig for å forstå hva som skjedde. En bedre analyse av det som skjedde er i KN 264.
Det er usant som Prestrud skriver, at «Endringene ble gjennomført i samsvar med IPCCs prosedyrer og i forståelse med forfattergruppen». Endringen med at menneskets påvirkning nå var «discernible» var ikke øvrige forfattere med på, og enda verre, beviset for dette, som kom fra en påstand i en forskningsrapport med Ben Santer selv som medforfatter, kunne ifølge IPCC-prosedyrene ikke brukes fordi forskningen hverken var fagfellevurdet eller publisert.
Det er også uredelig å utelate at vår påvirkning som nå var «discernible», bare var det inni modellen Ben Santer brukte i sin forskning, og ikke ute i atmosfæren. At alle andre på Prestruds side i klimadebatten har fortsatt å utelate dette i senere år, fritar ikke Prestrud fra å opptre med vitenskapelig integritet, hverken i 2012 eller i dag.
Merk at når Prestrud skriver om teksten i SPM at forskerne har vetorett, så motsies han av IPCC-leder Bolin som dengang var klar på at når forskere og politikere er uenige, så har politikerne det siste ordet.
Legg til at Prestruds kilde både her og i avsnittet om oljebransjen, Naomi Oreskes «Merchants of Doubt» ikke inneholder noe av verdi. Prestrud utelater at Oreskes bok er brukt som bevis i flere rettsaker NGOer har reist mot selskaper i oljebransjen, saker NGOene har tapt, dels fordi Oreskes påstander er oppspinn.
IPCC skrev i 1990 følgende om denne figuren: «The late tenth to early thirteenth centuries (about AD950-1250) appear to have been exceptionally warm in western Europe, Iceland and Greenland (Alexandre 1987; Lamb, 1988). This period is known as the Medieval Climatic Optimum. China was, however, cold at this time (mainly in winter) but south Japan was warm (Yoshino 1978). This period of widespread warmth is notable in that there is no evidence that it was accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases.»
Legg merke til den siste setningen som er lite hjelpsom, man kan altså ha sterk global oppvarming uten at dette har noe som helst med CO2 å gjøre.
Steve McIntyre har sett på opprinnelsen til figuren ovenfor og fra hans blogg henter vi Lambs originale figur lagt sammen med IPCCs fortolkning av den. Som vi ser opererer IPCC med en langt svakere oppvarming for perioden 950 til 1250 enn det Lamb gjorde i sin tekst fra 1965 «THE EARLY MEDIEVAL WARM EPOCH AND ITS SEQUEL».
Lamb gjorde estimater over tidlige temperaturer i det sentrale England (50 års gjennomsnitt), som passet med den lengste temperaturserie vi har i dag, CET som starter i 1680. Lamb var overbevist om at både middelaldervarmen og den påfølgende lille istid, var et globalt fenomen. IPCC sådde tvil om dette i den siterte teksten ovenfor, men all nyere forskning viser at Lamb hadde rett.
Prof. Vahrenholt har samlet og systematisert nyere forskning (1300+ rapporter) som bekrefter MWP, og det er ikke omstridt at denne forskningen samlet viser at Lambs analyse var korrekt, MWP var et globalt fenomen, bare en av hele ti varme perioder etter siste istid, og mindre varm enn alle de andre bortsett fra nåtidens varmetopp.
Vi må kvitte oss med middelaldervarmen
Dette var holdningen blant ledende klimaforskere i IPCC-leiren, opprinnelig formulert i en epost til David Deming ved Oklahoma-universitetet i 1995 som «we have to “get rid of” the Medieval Warm Period.» En mer konkret referanse er «Climategate» epost (480. 1105670738.txt) fra 13. Januar 2005, fra Overpeck som Koordinerende hovedforfatter til IPCC hovedforfatterne Briffa og Osborn, med kopi til Eystein Jansen ved Bjerknessenteret, hvor budskapet er at Overpeck vil «deal a mortal blow» til MWP (og Holocene Optimum) “myths” (480. 1105670738.txt).
Climategate er en skandale hvor lekkede eposter fra IPCC-forskerne «reiser dypt forstyrrende spørsmål om måten klimaforskningen blir utført på, om forskernes vilje til å nekte tilgang til klimadata og nedtone feil i deres forskning, og om forskansningsmentaliteten og den vitenskapelige stammetilhørighet i et av de viktigste internasjonale spørsmål i vår tid». Ifølge klimajournalist Fred Pierce i The Guardian (side 19 i evalueringen). Se også Ellestads oppsummering av Climategate i KN 267 med nyttige referanser.
Situasjonen var altså at man i IPCC-leiren ikke bare ville kvitte seg med all kjent forskning som motsa dem, men de trengte også et bevis, Michael Manns hockekøllefigur, hovedskremsel i tredje hovedrapport i 2001. En figur som Prestrud og Jansen forsvarte i Norge med nebb og klør, samtidig som de og deres allierte gikk etter sine motdebattanter med til dels ufine metoder. Jfr Prestruds skittkasting mot Seitz og Singer (side 138) inngikk i samme tåkeleggingsstrategi, som var i bruk allerede i 2003.
Merk at Presturd mener at det er trakassering å be om å få utlevert klimaforskeres eposter iht pålegg i lov (side 140), mens hans kollega Samset i 2070 mener at det er uten betydning når klimaforskeres eposter (Climategate) viser at de mangler integritet, at de konspirerer for å undertrykke annen forskning og at de internt er enige med mye av den kritikk som reises mot IPCC-leiren.
Her er to referanser fra en klimadebatt i 2003, som viser at både journalister og SINTEF-forskere (Prestrud og Jansen tåkelegger i sitt tilsvar, skriver ingeniør Valland, jfr sitat under) finner at hockeykøllefiguren Prestrud og Jansen forsvarer, ikke holder mål. Men det var fra tiden før Forskning.no etablerte som prinsipp i en ensrettet redaksjon at man skulle aldri skrive om saker som deres oppdragsgivere ikke likte. Oppdragsgivere som muligens inkluderer Cicero og Bjerknessenteret.
Tilsvaret er stort sett et angrep på M&Ms; troverdighet, en mistenkeliggjøring av deres motiver og et forsøk på latterliggjøring av deres resultater.
Anders Valland, Forskning.no, desember 2003.
Gjennomført uetterrettelig
Alt annet enn saklig debatt, var altså strategien allerede i 2003. Prestrud skriver i 2012 om Manns hockeykøllefigur: Mann har publisert forskningen sin i forskningstidsskrifter som blir vurdert av forskningskollegaer før artiklene publiseres, såkalt fagfellevurdering, og det var ikke grunn til å tro at Mann hadde brutt normer for vitenskapelig redelighet.
Det går klart fram fra Steve McIntyres analyse av Manns forskning slik den ble publisert, at ingen kunne ha fagfellevurdert materialet. McIntyre selv var den første som gjorde jobben, til tross for at all IPCC-forskning SKAL være fagfellevurdert for å kunne benyttes i deres rapporter. Dette praktiseres åpenbart svært selektivt.
McIntyres og McKitricks tidlige kritikk – som var godt kjent allerede i 2003 – gikk på det samme som Wegman- og senere North-rapporten påpekte. Disse to ledende statistikere forklarte seg under ed i senatshøringer; statistikkmetodene til Mann var ugyldige, og dette alene ugyldiggjorde Manns klimaforskning uten at man trengte å se på denne.
Prestrud skriver: Den såkalte Wegman-rapporten har senere vist seg å inneholde feil, og dessuten er deler av den plagiat.
Det er uhørt at slike ting får plass i et tidsskrift om forskningsetikk. Det er godt kjent at Wegmans statistikk-konklusjon er korrekt og helt uberørt av bagatellene Prestrud peker på, som gjelder manglende sitering i en ubetydelig setning i teksten, gjort av en utvekslingstudent som jobbet med teksten som skulle publiseres.
To ganger nevner Wegmans sammendrag at Dr. Mann og hans kolleger ikke har noen kontakt med mainstream statistikk.
Statistiker Kjell Stordahl omtaler hockeykølla i KN 55, og konkluderer med at den «burde vært begravet for lenge siden!»
Åpenbart har flere i IPCC-leiren lenge hatt større behov for å villede om klima i det offentlige rom i Norge, enn de har hatt vilje til å praktisere vitenskapelig integritet.
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