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Vårt prosesskriv til høyesterett
Klimarealistene har avgitt et prosesskriv til Høyesterett, til anken Greenpeace, Natur og ungdom m.fl. har anlagt mot staten knyttet til tildelingsvedtaket om utvinningstillatelse i Barentshavet. Her er teksten, som viser at Samset og Jansen benytter klassisk sirkelargumentasjon når de forgjeves skal forsvare klimamodellene. Nederst et kort sammendrag av vårt naturfaglige bilag til retten. Høyesterett har satt av dagene 4-11.november til ankeforhandling.
Innledning
Klimarealistene viser til tvisteloven § 15-8 og vil benytte sin rett til å avgi innlegg i saken Greenpeace og Natur og Ungdom har anlagt mot staten for brudd på Grunnlovens § 112, etter tildelingsvedtak om utvinningstillatelse i Barentshavet (23. konsesjonsrunde).
Klimarealistene er en organisasjon for personer som ønsker å påvirke klimadebatten med realisme og vitenskapelig kunnskap. Organisasjonen har et vitenskapelig råd som består av 23 norske og utenlandske anerkjente vitenskapsmenn på klimarelaterte områder, hvorav én er nobelprisvinner i fysikk.
Foreningen har både relevant formål og betydelig kompetanse innen de faglige spørsmål som reises i saken. Siden rettsaken har betydelig allmenn interesse, ønsker Klimarealistene derfor å bidra med faglige innspill innen det vi oppfatter som det sentrale grunnlaget for anken.
Klimarealistene har derfor utarbeidet et omfattende klimafaglig bilag til dette prosesskrivet, med 7 kapitler og 9 understøttende appendikser, der blant annet fem spørsmål blir behandlet, som vi anser er av største betydning for opplysning av saken. Dette bilaget retter seg i hovedsak mot de ankende parters påberopelse av klimaskade og klimakrise.
I dette prosesskrivet vil vi særlig behandle presentasjonen i lagmannsretten fra seniorforsker Bjørn H. Samset fra CICERO. Hans hovedbudskap er at verdens og Norges utslipp må ned til null, at dette bør være grunn til ikke å tildele nye lisenser for oljeboring, og at null utslipp er krevende, men gjennomførbart. Vi påviser at dette er feilaktig.
Feil i ankeerklæringen
I ankeerklæringen til Høyesterett skriver de to nevnte organisasjonene at bakgrunnen for at vedtaket er i strid med Grunnlovens § 112 er at «Verden er enige om at det foreligger en klimakrise, og at CO2-utslippene må reduseres svært raskt og til netto null rundt 2050.»
Nærmere tusen vitenskapsfolk herunder to medlemmer av Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi, nobelprisvinner i fysikk Ivar Giæver, og den verdensledende atmosfærefysikeren Richard Lindzen, har undertegnet et opprop om at det ikke finnes en klimakrise. Påstanden om at det er enighet om dette er derfor usann. Klimarealistene vil med sitt innlegg også vise at påstanden om at CO2-utslippene må reduseres svært raskt og til null rundt 2050 også baserer seg på feilaktig grunnlag.
Samset og Jansen med uriktig argumentasjon i tingretten
Vitnemålene i tingretten fra seniorforsker Bjørn H. Samset fra CICERO og professor Eystein Jansen fra Bjerknessenteret bygger fullt og helt på en lang rekke modellbaserte klimascenarier fra IPCC. Men høyt meritterte forskere har for lengst påvist at klimamodellene feiler, som vi også påviser i Appendiks 2, og IPCC fastslo i sin tredje hovedrapport (AR3) at modellene ikke kan si noe sikkert om det fremtidige klima, fordi vi har å gjøre med et kaotisk, ikke-lineært system. Når Samset og Jansen likevel tviholder på at modellene er korrekte, påviser vi i vårt Appendiks 3 at de begge gjør en feilslutning bygget på uriktig argumentasjon.
Falsifisering av Samsets presentasjon i lagmannsretten
I lagmannsretten viste Samset en svært omfattende presentasjon på 65 sider, og hans budskap var også der basert helt og holdent på modellbaserte klimascenarier. Vi anser det som svært vanskelig for retten å kunne vurdere Samsets påstander i denne ensidige presentasjonen. Vi klargjør derfor situasjonen gjennom en enkel vitenskapelig analyse av Samsets budskap.
Tittelen på Samsets presentasjon i lagmannsretten er «Netto null: Sammenhengen mellom klimamål og utslippsbudsjett». Nobelprisvinneren i fysikk Richard Feynman insisterte på at en vitenskapsmann må presentere alle data, også de data som ikke underbygger hans idé eller hypotese. Samset gjør konsekvent det motsatte. Han bygger hele sin fremstilling på modellbaserte scenarier, og nevner aldri en overveldende og vitenskapelig veldokumentert, ofte motstridende klimaempiri.
Vår analyse gir en konsistent og dekkende kortversjon av Samsets detaljrike budskap, som kan formuleres i tre punkter:
- Vi vet at klimaendringene de siste 250 år skyldes utslipp av CO2
- Følgelig kan vi stoppe og stabilisere klimaendringene ved å kutte alle utslipp til null
- Hvor mye og hvor raskt vi kutter vil bestemme klodens sluttemperatur
Allerede i punkt 1 går det galt, der det forutsettes at klimaendringene skyldes våre utslipp. Her ser Samset helt bort fra naturlig variasjon. I løpet av de siste 450 000 år har vi hatt forskjeller mellom maksimum og minimum årlig middeltemperatur på opp mot 10 grader. Og i de siste 11 500 år etter den siste istiden har vi hatt temperaturvariasjoner på mer enn 3 grader.
De fleste kan se urimeligheten i påstanden om at en temperaturøkning på én grad de siste 250 år skal skyldes utslipp av CO2, mens temperaturvariasjoner på opp mot 10 grader skjer helt uten utslipp. Det er derfor høyst uvitenskapelig å hevde at vi kan stabilisere klimasystemet ved å gå til null utslipp. Det er bare de som tilhører modellforskernes land som kan tro på dette. Se Appendiks 1: ‘Klimaendringene domineres av naturlig variasjon’.
Det er også i denne sammenhengen verd å merke seg geologenes aktualiseringsprinsipp, som sier at de samme prosessene styrer klimaets utvikling i fortid, nåtid og fremtid.
Punkt 2 falsifiseres på samme måte som punkt 1. Her forutsettes at klimaet i utgangspunktet er stabilt, og at den pågående endringen kan stanses dersom utslippene går til null. Men veldokumenterte, store klimaendringer viser at klimaet aldri har vært stabilt. Samset bygger her på modellbaserte scenarier, som falsifiseres av en overveldende klimaempiri.
Punkt 3 er irrelevant, for dette gjelder bare om man kan bevise at modellbaserte scenarier trumfer veletablert empiri, og deretter legger punktene 1 og 2 til grunn. Som en kuriositet nevner vi at det i klimarapporten SR1.5 (IPCC 2018) kom en pinlig innrømmelse i en fotnote. Der dukket det plutselig opp 300 gigatonn ekstra CO2 i karbonbudsjettet, noe som gir oss 7 års utsettelse. Disse 7 årene burde jo Samset ha fortalt retten om. Eller var karbonbudsjettet riktig allikevel? Vi viser for øvrig i bilagets Appendiks 2 at klimamodellene feiler.
Andre relevante forhold
I vårt klimafaglige bilag påviser vi også at det ikke eksisterer noen konsistent og vedvarende empirisk årsakssammenheng der CO2 driver temperatur. Tvert imot er det slik at temperaturen stiger først, og så følger CO2 etter.
Samset hevder på side 10 i sitt innlegg i lagmannsretten at «Vi har god kjennskap til de ulike faktorene som har påvirket klimaet de siste 250 årene». Dette er grovt feilaktig. Klimaforskerne mangler forklaringer på blant annet den lille istiden, den markerte temperaturtoppen rundt 1940, og ikke minst ‘the grand hiatus’, altså perioden mellom 1940 og 1975, da temperaturen falt og klimaforskerne hevdet vi var på vei inn i en ny istid.
Parisavtalen
Samset viser også til Parisavtalen, men forteller ikke hvordan den vil virke eller hva den vil koste. Denne avtalen, med de forskjellige nasjonale utslippsmål, vil ifølge aktuell forskning redusere de globale utslippene med bare 1 % av det som trengs for å begrense den globale temperaturen til 1,5 grader. Avtalen vil således gi bare mindre enn 0,045 grader temperatur-reduksjon i år 2100. Samtidig vil kostnadene for avtalens signatarer bli meget betydelige, i 2030 mellom 800 og 1800 milliarder US dollar per år. Hver dollar investert i klimatiltak vil bare gi antatte klimafordeler verdt 11 cents (Se Appendiks 6).
Null utslipp er ikke realiserbart
Selv om retten skulle akseptere Samsets og Jansens modellscenarier, lar det seg ikke gjøre å redusere utslippene til netto null rundt 2050. Over 80 prosent av verdens energiforbruk kommer fra kull, olje og gass. Slik har det vært lenge til tross for at det er brukt enorme beløp på vindturbiner og solpaneler. Dersom vi skulle redusere den globale bruken av fossil energi med 90 prosent i 2050 uten å redusere energiproduksjonen for en voksende befolkning, må vi ferdigstille og installere 1 500 vindturbiner med en effekt på 2 MW eller 13 millioner solcellepaneler med effekten 300 W hver eneste dag de neste 12 000 dagene. I tillegg må det bygges kraftverk som kan levere strøm når det er vindstille og solen ikke skinner. Alternativt kan ett kjernekraftverk på 1,5 GW ferdigstilles daglig de neste tolv tusen dagene. Det ser altså ut som den sakkyndige seniorforsker fra CICERO, Bjørn Samset, slår en plate når han forsøker å innbille oss at en slik utslippsreduksjon er mulig (Se Appendiks 8.)
Nye letelisenser har ingen målbar klimaeffekt
De samlede CO2-utslippene fra norsk petroleumsindustri utgjør bare en drøy tredjedel av CO2-utslippene fra ett av de mange kullkraftverkene som bygges i verden i dag. Med klimamodellen MAGICC kan vi beregne den teoretiske virkningen av petroleumsindustriens utslipp. Selv om modellen sannsynligvis opererer med en for høy følsomhet for CO2, viser den en redusert global middeltemperatur i år 2100 på kun 0,000007 grader dersom vi kutter all produksjon i dag. Bortfallet av norsk petroleum vil imidlertid bli erstattet av andre lands produksjon, så utslippene reduseres ikke av den grunn, snarere tvert om, fordi vi produserer med lavere utslipp enn andre. Den eneste effekten vil være en ødelagt økonomi (Se Appendiks 7).
Det eksisterer ingen klimakrise
Den siste delen av Samsets presentasjon heter «Konsekvenser av å ikke klare klimamålene». Her kommer en lang rekke modellgenererte problemer, som vannmangel, skogbranner, flom, matmangel og ekstremvær. Samset forteller oss uten tydelige reservasjoner hvordan fremtiden vil bli. Dette kommenterer vi slik:
Dersom disse problemene relatert til klimaendringene vil manifestere seg i fremtiden, er det likegyldig om endringene er naturlige eller CO2-drevet. Vi må tilpasse oss endringene, og det har vi gjort i stor og stigende grad. Alt tyder imidlertid på at endringene vi har sett de siste 250 år er naturlige. Vi viser til vårt Appendiks 6 ‘Klima-endringene er ikke farligere nå enn før’.
Det er også viktig å kjenne til IPCC, WGII, AR5, Kap. 10 side 662. Dette kapitlet vurderer virkningen av klimaendringene på viktige samfunnssektorer og tjenester, og på velferd og økonomisk utvikling. Her heter det:
«For de fleste økonomiske sektorer, vil virkningene av klimaendringene være små i forhold til andre drivere. Endringer i befolkning, alder, inntekt, teknologi, relative priser, livsstil, reguleringer, styresett og mange andre aspekter av den sosioøkonomiske utviklingen vil ha en virkning på tilbud og etterspørsel av økonomiske goder og tjenester som er store i forhold til virkningene av klimaendringene.»
Dette betyr at eksempelvis den forventede befolkningsveksten etter alt å dømme vil bety mer for samfunnsutviklingen enn klimaendringene. Det er derfor antakelig viktigere å fokusere på andre faktorer enn å forsøke å bekjempe klimaendringene, som har en meget betydelig og etter all sannsynlighet dominerende naturlig komponent. Dette burde Samset opplyse om. Se også vårt Appendiks 6.
Forventet kritikk
Vi vil forvente kritikk av vårt prosesskriv med bilag. Dette kan anta forskjellige generelle former, som at alt er godt kjent og tidligere tilbakevist, at signatarene ikke er klimaforskere, at flertallet av forskerne mener vi tar feil, at vår situasjonsbeskrivelse er irrelevant, at klimakrisen allerede er en realitet, at klimamodellene er korrekte osv.
Vi oppfordrer derfor eventuelle kritikere til enkeltvis og under fullt navn å kommentere hvert enkelt utsagn i prosesskriv eller bilag som eventuelt hevdes å være feilaktig, nøyaktig og i den kontekst utsagnet forekommer. Vi forventer dessuten å få mulighet til tilsvar.
Avslutning
I retningslinjer for sakkyndigarbeid i domstolene utarbeidet av Dommerforeningen, Riksadvokaten, Regjeringsadvokaten og Advokatforeningen står det at retten bør sørge for omtale av faglige omstridte spørsmål en sak reiser, om det foreligger ulike retninger eller «skoler» i fagmiljøet, herunder hvordan den foreslåtte sakkyndige plasserer seg i denne debatten. Sakens dokumenter tyder ikke på at dette er gjennomført. Det synes heller ikke som sakkyndige i tilstrekkelig grad har redegjort for årsakssammenhenger og tvil. I tillegg skilles det ikke klart mellom faktiske forhold og modellbaserte påstander. Nettopp for å bøte på dette har en faggruppe utgått fra Klimarealistenes Vitenskapelige Råd utarbeidet og sendt inn dette faglige bilag med 9 understøttende appendikser som vedlegges.
Sammendrag av naturfaglig bilag
I oktober 2016 saksøkte Greenpeace og Natur og Ungdom den norske stat for å tildele nye lisenser for oljeboring i Barentshavet, med den påstand at tildelingen er ugyldig iht Grunnlovens § 112. Som det sentrale grunnlaget for søksmålet anføres trusselen nye letelisenser ville kunne medføre for det globale klimaet. Ettersom verken tingretten eller lagmannsretten fant grunnlag for at tildelingen ville medføre tilstrekkelig skade, har de ankende parter for Høyesterett i større grad vektlagt den påståtte faren for økede utslipp ved ny virksomhet og konsekvensene for det globale klimaet.
Vi viser i bilaget at grunnlaget for søksmålet er feilaktig. Norges eksisterende petroleumsvirksomhet har neglisjerbar virkning på klimaet, og nye letelisenser endrer ikke på dette. Dette begrunner vi blant annet slik:
Det er i hovedsak naturlig variasjon og ikke utslipp av CO2 som styrer jordens klima. Vårt klima har aldri vært stabilt og vil heller aldri bli det. En overveldende, godt underbygget og lite kontroversiell klimahistorikk gjennom de siste 450 000 år, viser en meget betydelig naturlig klimavariasjon, både over kortere og lengre perioder. Vi har hatt fire dype istider, og vi befinner oss nå i den siste av fem varmere mellomistider. Gjennom de 11 500 år i denne siste mellomistiden har det vært minst 6 perioder der det har vært varmere enn i dag. Godt kjent er den minoiske og den romerske varmeperioden, da det var langt varmere enn i dag, og da sivilisasjon, kultur og agrikultur blomstret. Historien gir oss ugjendrivelige bevis for at et varmere klima i fortiden ikke var forbundet med fare for menneskene eller varig skade på naturen, men tvert imot har vært til gunst for mennesker og natur. Skandinavia og Alpene var forøvrig totalt isfrie for 4000 år siden. Temperaturopphentingen etter den lille istiden er et eksempel på naturlig variasjon i vår tid.
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