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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/01/02/klimaoppspinn-aret-2021/
Klimaoppspinn-året 2021
- januar 2, 2022
- 20:07
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk, Miljødirektoratet, Sjette Hovedrapport AR6
Anno Domini 2021 var spesielt, fordi to hendelser falt sammen i tid – stortingsvalget og IPCCs sjette hovedrapport, og dette drev mange av de galeste grønne særinteressene inn i en tilstand av nihilistisk klimaekstase. Som alltid før har disse ubegrenset tilgang til de fleste norske medier, mens de som ønsker å skrive noe fornuftig om klima ikke får slippe til. Her er noen få saker som har fanget redaksjonens interesse.
Oppspinn eller noe annet?
IPCC-leiren vrir og vrenger, manipulerer og utelater, jukser og lyver, og deler ut diagnoser. Oppspinn er valgt i overskriften som uspesifikk samlebetegnelse på det som foregår i det gruppetenkende ekkokammeret, men vi oppfordrer leserne til selv å tenke på mer spesifikke betegnelser.
Det som skjer i spesielt NRK er påpekt før med glitrende ordbruk – av en NRK-veteran fra Dagsnytt-redaksjonen. Sammen med påpekningen av at 58 % av befolkningen i Norge er klimaskeptikere – ifølge en internasjonal gallup.
Klimapanelets sjette hovedrapport
Første del som kom i sommer er som vanlig WG1, arbeidsgruppen hvor IPCC-leiren later som om det naturfaglige styrer en vitenskapelig prosess. Virkeligheten er at alle prosesser og beslutninger i Klimapanelet er politiske, noe som ble bekreftet allerede i IACs analyse av IPCC i 2010 (KN 167). «Og det er ikke måte på hva man kan prøve å lure lekfolk med.» (Ellestad i KN 188)
Mens tredje hovedrapport med Hockeykølle-skandalen var den mest uredelige av de seks rapportene, var årets AR6 en snodig blanding av pinlige innrømmelser (KN 310 ekstremværkonklusjoner reversert) og politiske påstander frakoblet alle fysiske realiteter (Koonins «Unsettled», omtalt av prof. Hannesson her) . Roger Pielke påpekte i sommer at skremselsscenariet RCP8.5 er banen eller scenariet som før ble omtalt som mest sannsynlig, men nå blir ansett som så usannsynlig at det ikke bør brukes i medieomtalen. RCP 2.6 er eneste bane som er nær virkeligheten, mens RCP8.5 får all medieomtalen, fordi det er en dystopisk og usannsynlig bane designet for å skremme.
Modellene til årets rapport, CMIP6-versjonen, er enda varmere enn før, og avstanden til virkeligheten er økende. Omtalt av oss her i juni. Det nye i året 2021 er at ledende skikkelser i IPCC-leiren, nå tar avstand fra egne klimamodeller:
GISS-direktør Gavin Schmidt uttaler til Science Mag (juli 2021): «Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast.»
Samme sted leser man: «The models were also out of step with records of past climate».
Men intet av dette havner i media, det forties og fortrenges. Istedet får vi budskapet i neste avsnitt.
Hockeykøllefiguren i 2021-versjon
Figuren under fra SPM, her i norsk versjon fra klimaforvaltningen, ble diskutert i utkastene til SPM. Etter kraftig kritikk ble det besluttet at figuren var ubrukelig og måtte fjernes. Men etter dette fant noen ut at figuren skulle brukes likevel, bak ryggen på de som kvalitetssikret teksten. Det vi ser til venstre er en dobbelt så lang Hockekølle (2000 år, fra Pages 2k, og hvor deler av forskergruppen brøt ut i protest mot misbruket av deres forskning), som utelater den kjente varmetoppen i vikingetiden og i tidlig romersk keisertid. Dette er satt opp mot modellert effekt av mennesklig og naturlig påvirkning, til høyre. Se neste avsnitt for noen av problemene med å holde på slik.
B for bedrageri ?
Sammendraget av og for politikere (SPM) utelater som vanlig alt som er beroligende, mens man krisemaksimerer etter evne. Som før har man ingen hemninger med å formulere påstander i SPM, hvor man finner det motsatte i hovedrapporten eller i fagfellevurdert forskning. Den frekkeste politiske påstanden i året 2021 er at det i praksis ikke finnes naturlige klimaendringer etter starten av den industrielle revolusjon (Tilsvarende politikk i AR5 fra 2013 er at 50 % av klimaendringene etter 1950 er forårsaket av mennesket, null påvirkning før 1950), og istedet for å «vise» dette objektivt med temperaturer fra 1760-årene, bruker man et gjennomsnitt for perioden 1850-1900.
Forklaringen er at det var for varmt i 1760-årene, mens gjennomsnittet for 1850-1900 samarbeider bedre med klimapolitikerne. Naturfaglige begrunnelser for de to politiske påstandene eksisterer ikke, man bruker modeller som bevis, og grovt feilaktig statistisk analyse for å bevise (ved attribusjon/fingeravtrykkpåvisning) at oppvarmingen inni modellen skyldes våre utslipp.
Mer spesifikt, IPCCs metode for attribusjon av observerte klimaendringer (Jfr. Allen and Tett, 1999) er basert på gal statistikkforståelse, spesifikt en elementær misforståelse av Gauss-Markov teoremet i regresjonsanalyse. Professor Ross McKitrick publiserte sin kritikk i August, og påpekte i kommentarer at forfatterne av 1999-studien ikke var uenige i hans kritikk men oppfordret ham til å publisere den. McKitrick påpeker hos Judith Curry at feilen er så elementær at alle med statistikkutdanning lett vil se feilen. IPCC-leiren later som om McKitricks studie ikke eksisterer, slik de gjør med all annen kritisk forskning, tilsammen anslagsvis 500 studier i året.
Så vidt vi kan se i redaksjonen, er dette det mest interessante spørsmålet:
Jukser IPCC-leiren bevisst, eller skal vi tro på at ingen der med statistikk-kompetanse har vurdert holdbarheten i Allan og Tetts forskning i de 22 årene som har gått ???
Samme problemstilling hadde man i forbindelse med Dr. Manns Hockekølleforskning, som ikke lengre forsvares av naturvitenskapen.
Klimavalget som forsvant
Det er skrevet mye om grønne mediefolks mislykkede forsøk på å få Stortingsvalget i 2021 til å bli et klimavalg. Her i september, og her etter valget. I sistnevnte oppslag påtaler vi årets muligens dummeste medieoppslag om klima. Vi er ikke helt sikre, for konkurransen er intens og redaksjonen har garantert gått glipp av mye dumskap. Vi oppfordrer leserne til å bruke kommentarfeltet hvis dere har sett noe verre enn det Iselin «Ko-ko» Fjeld fra NRK har prestert med fis og promp.
Meteorologisk Institutt – nå med pseudovitenskap
Mange aktører har påpekt at man ved Meteorologisk Institutt ikke lengre holder den høye faglige standarden man var vant til fra den tiden meteorologien ikke ble forvaltet av Klimadepartementet. Klimaagendaen skinner klart gjennom. Ellestad skiver i Klimanytt 301:
Meteorologisk institutts faglige renommé har falmet med deres uvitenskapelige klimarelaterte utspill. Manipulering med start og endepunkter i tidsserier, manglende historisk perspektiv og sviktende vitenskapelig integritet bringer fremstillingen over i pseudovitenskap.
Ole Henrik Ellestad, Klimanytt 301.
Også andre aktører som Værstat, er svært kritiske til Meteorologisk Institutts klimaagenda. I deres ferske Årskavalkade for 2021 beskrives hvordan Meteorologisk institutt (MET) ga en misvisende fremstilling av nedbørsrekorder som ble satt på Tjøme 29. juli 2021, dette oppslaget ble deres mest leste i 2021.
Men ikke nok med det, Værstat går gjennom METs nye praksis rundt fargebruk og kartprojeksjon. De skriver saken var alvorlig, da en inkonsekvent farge og kartvisning gir misvisende bilder av faktiske forhold.
Faktisk.no – Dusteforbund eller bare sirkus ?
En oppsummering av 2021 må nødvendigvis bli ukomplett fordi det er så enormt mye klimaoppspinn der ute. Vi avslutter med en sjelden perle, hvor Norges nye sannhetsministerium Faktisk.no, vekselvis beskrevet som dusteforbund eller sirkus fra folk som fortviler over alt det rare de skriver om klima eller energipolitikk.
Nytt i 2021 er deres samrøre 29.desember med en tidligere perifer yrkesgruppe i Meteorologisk Institutt, klimatologene. En klimatolog er en mer eller mindre utdannet, men svært politisk korrekt person som villeder og manipulerer om klima. De har selv en mer politisk korrekt beskrivelse av egen jobb, og klimatologijobbenes fortsatte eksistens er i stor grad avhengig av at politikerne forblir klimaskremte. Denne gruppen har selvfølgelig fått en mer sentral rolle hos MET etter at Klimaministeriet overtok rollen som METs styrende forvalter, til stor, men svært uoffisiell fortvilelse for seriøse meteorologer som ikke ønsker å politisere værmeldingene.
I denne videoen opptrer Klimatolog Inger Hanssen-Bauer, med friske påstander. Vi har derfor funnet det nødvendig å stille noen spørsmål via epost til MET:
Er Klimatologen riktig sitert av Faktisk.no uten at noe viktig er utelatt ?
Mener både Met-Institutt offisielt og spesifikt Hanssen-Bauer fortsatt om klimamodellene, at de modellerer oppvarmingen vi har sett, ganske bra ???
Vi har spurt, siden Hanssen-Bauer later til å være i utakt med ledende klimatologer (modellerer..ganske bra vis-a-vis out of step er ikke kompatible uttalelser selv med dagens klimanytale), om en kommentar til opplysninger i Science Magazine, i et intervju med Gavin Schmidt, leder for GISS, der han påpeker:
«Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast.»
Og, om dagens eller gårsdagens klima: «The models were also out of step with records of past climate»
Avslutningsvis ønsker vi å få bekreftet at Met.Institutt og Hanssen-Bauer er enig i at det nå er
klart kaldere ift varmeste del av bronsealderen hvor det ikke var isbreer igjen i Norge.
Det vi egentlig spør om her i siste setning, men som måtte utelates i teksten sendt til Met, forvaltet som de er av klimaministre som har mistet all bakkekontakt, er hvor langt tilbake i tid Hockeykølla i versjon 2021 har fortrengt vitenskapelig integritet.
I en telefonsamtale med MET 30.desember ble telefonvakten noe indignert over henvendelsen fra Klimarealistene, og de var klare på at de ikke ville bruke statens penger på å diskutere klima med klimarealister. Eller med andre ord, klimatologene ved MET er ufeilbarlige, som Paven for ca 500 år siden. Det ble nødvendig å påpeke hele tre ganger, før de roet seg ned, at det vi ønsket svar på, primært var om klimatolog Nanssen-Bauer var korrekt sitert av Faktisk.no, eller ikke.
Vi ble lovet svar første uken i januar. Vi venter i spenning. I mellomtiden kan leserne lure på: Hva er en klimatolog og hva består arbeidet deres av?
Er modellene for varme eller er de til å stole på ???
OPPRINNELIG KUNNGJORT VERSJON
XML-versjon |
Vedtekter for Meteorologisk institutt |
| Dato | FOR-2021-12-10-3465 |
|---|---|
| Departement | Klima- og miljødepartementet |
| Ikrafttredelse | 11.01.2022 |
| Kunngjort | 10.12.2021 kl. 16.15 |
| Journalnr | 2021-2029 |
| Korttittel | Vedtekter for Meteorologisk institutt |
Hjemmel: Fastsatt ved kgl.res. 10. desember 2021. Fremmet av Klima- og miljødepartementet.
§ 1.Formål
Meteorologisk institutt står for den offentlige meteorologiske tjenesten for sivile og militære formål. Meteorologisk institutt skal overvåke, varsle og formidle været med høy kvalitet og regularitet og beregne klimaet i nåtid og framtid. Instituttet skal arbeide for at myndighetene, næringslivet, institusjoner og allmennheten best mulig kan vareta sine interesser for sikring av liv og verdier, for planlegging og for vern av miljøet. Meteorologisk institutt skal drive forskning og utvikling på relevante fagområder. Meteorologisk institutt skal kunne utføre oppdrag og yte tjenester etter bestilling.
§ 2.Instituttets ledelse
Meteorologisk institutt ledes av et styre. Ansvaret for den daglige ledelsen av instituttet legges til en direktør.
§ 3.Styret
§ 3-1.Sammensetning, oppnevning, funksjonstid og arbeidsform
Styret har sju medlemmer og fem varamedlemmer.
Styrets leder og samtlige styremedlemmer og varamedlemmer oppnevnes av Klima- og miljødepartementet. To av styremedlemmene, med personlige varamedlemmer, oppnevnes etter forslag fra og blant de ansatte. Videre oppnevnes tre numeriske varamedlemmer for de øvrige styremedlemmene.
Styrets medlemmer og varamedlemmer oppnevnes for fire år. Ingen kan oppnevnes for mer enn åtte år sammenhengende. Klima og -miljødepartementet fastsetter godtgjøring til styrets medlemmer.
Styret oppnevner selv nestleder. De ansattes representanter kan ikke oppnevnes som nestleder. Styret er beslutningsdyktig når minst fem medlemmer er til stede. Ved stemmelikhet har styrets leder dobbeltstemme. Instituttets direktør deltar i styremøtene uten stemmerett. For øvrig fastsetter styret selv sin arbeidsform.
§ 3-2.Styrets ansvar og oppgaver
Styret er Meteorologisk institutts øverste organ og er ansvarlig for instituttets samlede virksomhet.
Styret har følgende hovedoppgaver:
| – | ansette direktør for instituttet etter konsultasjon med Klima- og miljødepartementet |
| – | sikre strategisk utvikling på kort og lang sikt |
| – | påse økonomisk kontroll og effektiv drift |
| – | fastsette instituttets organisering |
| – | føre kontroll med at instituttet tilfredsstiller fastsatte krav, lover og regler. |
Styret gir selv nærmere retningslinjer for delegering innenfor rammene av vedtektene.
Prinsipielle spørsmål som måtte oppstå i instituttets arbeid, og som er av en slik karakter at de krever politisk avklaring, skal styret legge fram for Klima- og miljødepartementet.
§ 4.Direktør
Direktøren har den daglige ledelse av instituttet og har ansvar for at de vedtak som er truffet av styret og av overordnet myndighet settes i verk. Direktøren er ansvarlig for at instituttet drives i samsvar med vedtektene og gjeldende regler for statlig virksomhet. Direktøren har avgjørelsesmyndighet i alle saker som ikke avgjøres av styret eller overordnet myndighet. Avgjørelsesmyndigheten kan delegeres til andre ansatte ved instituttet etter retningslinjer gitt av styret.
Direktøren ansettes på åremål på seks år og kan sitte to perioder. Lønnen fastsettes av departementet etter forslag fra styret.
Nærmere instruks for direktøren fastsettes av styret.
§ 5.Status og fullmakter
Instituttet er et statlig forvaltningsorgan med særskilte fullmakter, administrativt underlagt Klima- og miljødepartementet. Instituttet skal finansieres og organiseres slik at faglig uavhengighet og økonomisk og administrativ fleksibilitet oppnås. Instituttet har følgende fullmakter:
| – | det oppretter selv de stillinger og ansetter det personale som anses nødvendig for å løse de oppgaver det er pålagt, og ut fra hensynet til at bemanning og organisasjon må tilpasses de gitte rammebetingelser. Ansettelsesforholdene reguleres av lov om statens ansatte med forskrifter. |
| – | det får unntak fra bevilgningsreglementets § 3 fjerde ledd. Instituttet omfattes følgelig ikke av bruttoprinsippet for budsjettering i statlig virksomhet. Regnskapet skal revideres av Riksrevisjonen. |
Økonomiforvaltningen ved instituttet skal følge «Hovedinstruks for Meteorologisk institutt», fastsatt av Klima- og miljødepartementet.
§ 6.Vedtekter
Vedtekter for instituttet fastsettes ved kongelig resolusjon. Forslag til endringer skal legges fram for styret til uttalelse.
Evaluering av Meteorologisk
institutts kommersielle virksomhet. 2020
METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT
For 2005 (Tidligere) Lovdata
https://lovdata.no/dokument/INS/forskrift/2005-12-09-1431
Fastsatt ved kgl.res. 9. desember 2005. Fremmet av Utdannings- og forskningsdepartementet.
I
§ 1.Formål
Meteorologisk institutt står for den offentlige meteorologiske tjeneste for sivile og militære formål.
Instituttet skal arbeide for at myndigheter, næringslivet, institusjoner og allmennheten best mulig kan vareta sine interesser for sikring av liv og verdier, for planlegging og for vern av miljøet. Instituttet skal blant annet:
| a. | utarbeide værvarsler |
| b. | studere Norges klima og gi klimatologiske utredninger |
| c. | innhente meteorologiske data i Norge, nærliggende havområder og på Svalbard |
| d. | drive forsknings- og utviklingsarbeid |
| e. | levere flyværtjenester |
| f. | formidle resultatene av sitt arbeid |
| g. | utføre oppdrag og yte spesialtjenester |
| h. | delta i det internasjonale meteorologiske samarbeid. |
§ 2.Instituttets ledelse
Meteorologisk institutt ledes av et styre. Ansvaret for den daglige ledelsen av instituttet legges til en direktør.
§ 3.Styret
§ 3.1. Sammensetning, oppnevning, funksjonstid og arbeidsform
Styret har sju medlemmer og fem varamedlemmer.
Styrets leder og samtlige styremedlemmer og varamedlemmer oppnevnes av Kunnskapsdepartementet. To av styremedlemmene, med personlige varamedlemmer, oppnevnes etter forslag fra og blant de tilsatte. Videre oppnevnes tre numeriske varamedlemmer for de øvrige styremedlemmene.
Styrets medlemmer og varamedlemmer oppnevnes for fire år. Ingen kan oppnevnes for mer enn åtte år sammenhengende.
Styret oppnevner selv nestleder. De ansattes representanter kan ikke oppnevnes som nestleder. Styret er beslutningsdyktig når minst fem medlemmer er til stede. Ved stemmelikhet har styrets leder dobbeltstemme. Instituttets direktør deltar i styremøtene uten stemmerett. For øvrig fastsetter styret selv sin arbeidsform.
§ 3.2. Styrets ansvar og oppgaver
Styret er Meteorologisk institutts øverste organ og er ansvarlig for instituttets samlede virksomhet.
Styret har følgende hovedoppgaver:
| – | ansette direktør for instituttet |
| – | trekke opp hovedlinjene for instituttets virksomhet |
| – | fastsette instituttets organisering |
| – | har ansvar for tilsetting av personale |
| – | vedta instituttets årsplaner |
| – | vedta instituttets budsjettforslag til bevilgende myndigheter |
| – | vedta fordelingen av midler innenfor retningslinjer fra bevilgende myndigheter |
| – | har ansvar for instituttets resultater, resultatoppfølging og budsjettkontroll |
| – | avgi årlig rapport og regnskap for virksomheten |
| – | påse at instituttets virksomhet undergis en forsvarlig faglig vurdering |
| – | påse at det foreligger vurderinger som identifiserer de viktigste risikofaktorene knyttet til virksomheten |
| – | behandle andre saker av betydning for instituttets virksomhet. |
Styret gir selv nærmere retningslinjer for delegering innenfor rammene av vedtektene.
§ 4.Direktør
Direktøren har den daglige ledelse av instituttet og har ansvar for at de vedtak som er truffet av styret og av overordnet myndighet settes i verk. Direktøren er ansvarlig for at instituttet drives i samsvar med vedtektene og gjeldende regler for statlig virksomhet. Direktøren har avgjørelsesmyndighet i alle saker som ikke avgjøres av styret eller overordnet myndighet. Avgjørelsesmyndigheten kan delegeres til andre tjenestemenn ved instituttet etter retningslinjer gitt av styret.
Nærmere instruks for direktøren fastsettes av styret.
§ 5.Status og fullmakter
Instituttet er et statlig forvaltningsorgan med særskilte fullmakter, administrativt underlagt Kunnskapsdepartementet. Instituttet skal finansieres og organiseres slik at faglig uavhengighet og økonomisk og administrativ fleksibilitet oppnås. Instituttet har følgende fullmakter:
| – | det oppretter selv de stillinger og tilsetter det personale som anses nødvendig for å løse de oppgaver det er pålagt, og ut fra hensynet til at bemanning og organisasjon må tilpasses de gitte rammebetingelser. Tilsettingsforholdene reguleres av lov om statens tjenestemenn med forskrifter. |
| – | det får unntak fra bevilgningsreglementets § 4 andre ledd. Instituttet omfattes følgelig ikke av bruttoprinsippet for budsjettering i statlig virksomhet. Regnskapet skal revideres av Riksrevisjonen. |
Økonomiforvaltningen ved instituttet skal følge «Hovedinstruks for økonomiforvaltningen ved Meteorologisk institutt», fastsatt av Kunnskapsdepartementet.
Prinsipielle spørsmål som måtte oppstå i instituttets arbeid, og som er av en slik karakter at de krever politisk avklaring, skal styret legge fram for Kunnskapsdepartementet.
§ 6.Vedtekter
Vedtekter for instituttet fastsettes ved kongelig resolusjon. Forslag til endringer skal legges fram for styret til uttalelse.
II
Vedtektene trer i kraft 1. januar 2006.
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