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https://www.tv2.no/nyheter/13960869/
POLFORSKEREN HAR VÆRT 15 GANGER PÅ SØRPOLEN:
– Det har vært dønn stabilt i 40 år
Siden slutten av 60-tallet har forskere fra Norge målt havstrømmer og temperaturene i Antarktis. Resultatene er overraskende.
Nå har han nettopp kommet hjem fra sin poltur nummer femten.
– Det startet vel med tilfeldigheter. Jeg synes at den problemstillingen som jeg jobber med er så sentral for klimaforskningen at jeg måtte bidra, sier Svein Østerhus, seniorforsker ved NORCE.
Han er en av de i landet som har vært i Antarktis flest ganger.
– Jeg har nok brukte en del år av mitt liv der. I starten før GPS-kom, måtte man gjette seg til hvor instrumentene våre lå, humrer 67-åringen.
Norge har vært verdensledende og først ute når det gjelder langtidsmålinger i Antarktis.
Siden slutten av 60-tallet har forskningsmiljøet i Bergen plassert ut mange instrumenter som måler både temperaturer, havstrømmer og saltinnhold i havet og under isen på Sørpolen.
Stabile målinger
Nå har man gode resultater fra 1980 og frem til i dag, og målingene de siste 40 årene er nok overraskende for mange.
– I enkelte områder ser vi sterk smelting, men i det området vi har fokus på og som vi tenker er noe av de viktigste områdene å studere, er det dønn stabilt, sier Østerhus.
– Du snakker litt mot dommedagesprofetiene nå?
– Ja, og jeg håper at jeg har rett, men det kan vi ikke ta for gitt, sier forskeren.
– Klimamodellene viser at det kommer til skje noe i de områdene vi måler, men så langt har vi altså ikke sett noen endringer av betydning. Den is-bremmen vi studerer er ikke blitt noe tynnere, snarere tvert imot, sier Østerhus.
– Mange snakker om at Antarktis vil smelte, tar de feil?
– Det er rett at det i enkelte områder er issmelting. I nord smelter sjøisen. Det gjør den på Grønland og i deler av Antarktis også, men det som virkelig betyr noe når det gjelder økning i havnivået, ja der skjer det heldigvis veldig lite, påpeker forskeren.
Han er forsiktig når det gjelder all skremselspropaganda om klimaet.
– Som forsker er jeg forsiktig med å komme med slike påstander uten å ha skikkelig god dekning for det. Det tror jeg kan slå kraftig tilbake på oss hvis vi fremstiller det som om at det skjer dramatisk store endringer, sier Østerhus.
Naturlige variasjoner?
– Det kan være naturlige variasjoner bortsett fra i noen områder, forteller han.
I Antarktis er det to gigantiske og svært viktige is-bremmer.
Dette er Ross og Filchner-Ronne, i tillegg til noen mindre.
En is-brem er typisk nok ett par hundre meter tjukk ved fronten, og kan være hele 2000 meter tjukk andre steder.
Inne på kontinentalsokkelen helt sør i Weddellhavet blir det gjennom vinteren dannet tungt bunnvann ved at overflatevannet blir kjølt ned til frysepunktet og fryser til is.
Når sjøis blir dannet, frigir isen salt til det omkringliggende vannet. Dette vannet som da blir ekstra salt blir på frysepunktet så tungt at det synker ned til bunnen.
Verdens kjøleboks
Nede på bunnen strømmer det innunder den gigantiske is-bremmen Filchner-Ronne.
Temperaturen på dette vannet er -1.9°C som er frysepunkttemperaturen til havvannet på overflaten, men saltvannet fryser med lavere temperatur når trykket blir høyere.
Det betyr at varmen fra dette vannet smelte undersiden av is-bremmen, og vannet får da en temperatur som er lavere enn frysepunktemperaturen på overflaten.
Når dette vannet strømmer ut fra undersiden av is-bremmen, er det superkaldt.
Derfor blir dette området kalt for Antarktis sin fryseboks og er derfor viktig for alle verdens hav.
Seniorforskeren er overrasket over at man ikke har ser større endringen de siste 40 årene, men han er også klar på at mye kan endre seg raskt og at man står ved et vippepunkt.
Frykter varmere hav
For man frykter at varmere vann vil strømme innunder is-bremmene.
Dette vil føre til at smeltingen av is-bremmene øker. Da vil mer av innlandsisen skli ut i havet med det resultat at havnivået stiger kraftig.
Varmere vinder er også helt avgjørende.
– Ja, det som vi er urolige for er såkalte vippepunkt saker. Hvis det blir endring i vindsystemene i havet helt sør i Atlanterhavet, så kan det føre til endring i dannelsen av sjøis som igjen vil føre til endringer i det tunge vannet som ligger på kontinental sokkelen og beskytter is-bremmen, sier Østerhus.
Klimamodeller kan hjelpe til med å varsle om store endringer i klimaet, men de er avhengige av gode observasjoner over lang tid.
Det har Norge og forskningsmiljøene i Bergen bidratt til.
Sammen om forskning
– Før disse modellresultatene kom så var det ikke så stor interesse for det arbeidet vi gjorde, sier forskeren.
– Vi var noen engelskmenn og nordmenn som holdt på i disse området med havstrømmer, men det endret seg dramatisk i 2014 for da kom tyskerne tilbake med full styrke, sier Østerhus.
– De sendte flere forskningsskip med masse instrumenter ned. Så nå har vi et datasett som vi virkelig kan bruke til å teste ut om klimamodellene viser rett eller ikke, forteller han.
I tillegg bidrar også Frankrike tungt inn klimaforskningen. På europeisk nivå er det et veldig tett samarbeid med felles ekspedisjoner.
Hos bedriftene Aanderaa i Bergen og Nortek utenfor Oslo bygger man mer hardføre og moderne måleinstrumenter som vil gi enda mer oppdatert og nøyaktig data.
– Vi trenger litt mer kunnskap om prosessene som får det varme vannet til å strømme inn under is-bremmen og så må vi ha lange nok måleserier som kan si noe mer om variasjoner i havstrømmer, temperatur og salt i havet, sier Svein Østerhus, oseanograf og seniorforsker ved NORCE.
– Vi skulle gjerne ha målt i enda større områder, men problemet er at det er veldig kostbart, sier forskeren.
For sent å snu
Hvis dagens dystre klimamodeller og anslag om høye temperaturer og is-smelting slår til, er det for seint å snu for områdene i Antarktis er helt sentrale.
– Hvis klimamodellene får rett i disse områdene, kommer havnivåene til å stige kraftig, sier Østerhus.
– Det er så ille at hvis det verste skulle skje så snakker vi om to til tre meter i løpet av noen hundre å, men vi har ingen målinger som viser at dette skal skje, sier Østerhus.
I løpet av fem til ti år kan man få et tydeligere varsel om klimaendringene for de største is-bremmene, sier 67-åringen.
– Jeg synes at dette er så spennende og sentralt at jeg ikke har tenkt å pensjonere meg på aldri så lang tid, forteller forskeren,
– Jeg håper å kunne leve lenge nok til å se om klimamodellene har rett eller feil. Jeg håper virkelig at de tar feil, men det kan vi ikke ta for gitt, sier Østerhus.
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