3. February 2023

After Hurricane Ian: No Trend in Florida Landfalls, Global Activity Trending Down. Hentet fra Roy Spencer Ph.d.

 

 https://www.drroyspencer.com/

After Hurricane Ian: No Trend in Florida Landfalls, Global Activity Trending Down

September 29th, 2022

Hurricane Ian approaches SW Florida on 28 September 2022.

With Hurricane Ian (now a tropical storm) exiting the east coast of Florida, there is no shortage of news reports tying this storm to climate change. Even if those claims actually include data to support their case, those data are usually for cherry-picked regions and time periods. If global warming is causing a change in tropical cyclone activity, it should show up in global statistics.

The latest peer-reviewed study (March 2022, here) of the accumulated wind energy in tropical cyclones since 1990 (when we started have sufficient global data) showed a decrease in hurricane activity. There was an increase in Atlantic activity, but this was matched by an even larger decrease in Pacific activity, due to a shift from El Nino to La Nina conditions during that time.

So, yes, there is climate change involved in the uptick in Atlantic activity in recent decades. But it’s natural.

Looking at just the numbers of global hurricanes since 1980, we see no obvious trends.

Global hurricane activity counts by year during 1980-2021.

Even if we did see an increase, the improvements in global satellite monitoring would be responsible for some of that. It is impossible to talk about meaningful global statistics (especially trends) before the 1980s due to a lack of satellite data. Ships of opportunity are insufficient for trend calculations, especially since ships try to avoid storms, not sample them.

A document-based study of hurricanes impacting the Lesser Antilles since the late 1600s found a downward trend (not statistically significant) in hurricane activity during 1690-2007.

In my 2017 Kindle book Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed on Global Warming, I looked at major hurricane landfalls in Florida, which showed no trends. With Hurricane Ian and Michael (2018) added to the dataset, there is still no statistically significant trends in either intensity or frequency of landfalling major hurricanes in Florida.

Major hurricane landfalls in Florida over the last 120 years.

Of course hurricane damages have increased dramatically during the same period, but this is due to the explosive growth in coastal infrastructure there. Miami had only 444 residents in 1896, and now the metro area has over 6,000,000 population. As seen in the following plot, Florida population has increased by a factor of over 40 since 1900.

Yearly population of Florida, 1900 through 2021.

Given that hurricanes will always be with us, what is the best defense against them? Wealth. Hurricane Ian came ashore with 150 mph sustained winds, but warnings from modern instrumentation and forecast tools led to mass evacuations. At this writing, only 5 deaths have been reported (I’m sure that will rise). Modern building codes help reduce wind damage. I watched storm chaser Reed Timmer live reporting from the eyewall of Hurricane Ian as it made landfall, and I didn’t see any roofs coming off the houses (but I’m sure there were some that did). Damage from storm surge flooding, however, will be extensive and costly.

27 thoughts on “After Hurricane Ian: No Trend in Florida Landfalls, Global Activity Trending Down. Hentet fra Roy Spencer Ph.d.

  1. After study a number of of the blog posts on your web site now, and I really like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark web site record and will be checking back soon. Pls try my web site as well and let me know what you think.

  2. Whats up very nice blog!! Guy .. Beautiful .. Amazing .. I’ll bookmark your blog and take the feeds additionally…I am satisfied to seek out so many useful info right here within the publish, we want work out more techniques in this regard, thanks for sharing.

  3. I precisely wanted to thank you so much all over again. I’m not certain the things that I would’ve tried in the absence of the type of aspects documented by you over this problem. It actually was a very depressing difficulty for me, but taking note of the well-written strategy you handled that forced me to leap over joy. Extremely happier for the guidance and thus believe you realize what a great job you have been putting in teaching most people using your webpage. Most likely you’ve never met all of us.

  4. Thx for your post. I’d prefer to write my opinion that the tariff of car insurance will vary from one coverage to another, mainly because there are so many different issues which give rise to the overall cost. Such as, the brand name of the auto will have an enormous bearing on the fee. A reliable outdated family automobile will have a lower priced premium when compared to a flashy racecar.

  5. Great work! This is the type of information that should be shared around the internet. Shame on the search engines for not positioning this post higher! Come on over and visit my site . Thanks =)

  6. Good ? I should certainly pronounce, impressed with your site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs and related information ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, web site theme . a tones way for your client to communicate. Excellent task..

  7. Thanks a lot for sharing this with all folks you actually recognise what you are talking about! Bookmarked. Please also talk over with my web site =). We can have a link exchange agreement between us!

  8. What i do not understood is actually how you’re not actually much more well-liked than you may be now. You are very intelligent. You realize thus considerably relating to this subject, produced me personally consider it from so many varied angles. Its like men and women aren’t fascinated unless it is one thing to accomplish with Lady gaga! Your own stuffs outstanding. Always maintain it up!

  9. hey there and thank you for your information ? I have certainly picked up anything new from right here. I did however expertise some technical points using this site, since I experienced to reload the website a lot of times previous to I could get it to load properly. I had been wondering if your web host is OK? Not that I’m complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and can damage your high quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I am adding this RSS to my email and could look out for much more of your respective exciting content. Ensure that you update this again very soon..

  10. Thanks for the helpful posting. It is also my opinion that mesothelioma has an extremely long latency phase, which means that warning signs of the disease might not exactly emerge until 30 to 50 years after the primary exposure to asbestos. Pleural mesothelioma, that is the most common sort and has effects on the area within the lungs, might result in shortness of breath, breasts pains, along with a persistent coughing, which may produce coughing up blood.

  11. hey there and thank you to your information ? I have definitely picked up something new from right here. I did alternatively expertise several technical points the use of this web site, as I skilled to reload the web site lots of times prior to I may just get it to load properly. I have been puzzling over in case your hosting is OK? Now not that I am complaining, but slow loading cases occasions will sometimes impact your placement in google and can harm your quality ranking if advertising and ***********|advertising|advertising|advertising and *********** with Adwords. Anyway I?m adding this RSS to my e-mail and can look out for a lot more of your respective interesting content. Ensure that you replace this again very soon..

  12. We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your website provided us with valuable info to paintings on. You’ve performed an impressive activity and our whole group might be grateful to you.

  13. Thank you for every other informative site. The place else could I get that type of information written in such a perfect way? I have a mission that I’m just now operating on, and I’ve been on the glance out for such info.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *