3. February 2023
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Temperaturer gennem 10.000 år. by Frank Ewald Lansner

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

https://klimarealisme.dk/2019/02/24/temperaturer-gennem-10-000-aar/

Temperaturer gennem 10.000 år

 by Frank Ewald LansnerViews: 1415

Liste af temperaturdata gennem den igangværende mellemistid. Samlingen vil nu og da blive opdateret. Udbuddet af forskningsresultater på dette felt er stort og vi vægter hvad vi finder mest relevant som følger:

  • Grundet det store udbud af resultater giver det mening at prioritere de nyeste arbejder først. Således har vi flest resultater med fra årene 2016-2018 i denne opgørelse.
  • Vi foretrækker resultater der til en vis grad gør det muligt at sammenligne nutidens temperaturer med fortidens
  • Vi foretrækker resultater der ikke er splejsning af flere forskellige data typer, men helst én fortløbende dataserie. En udbredt fejl i klimavidenskaben er at man sammensætter f.eks. træringe-data med målte temperaturer for de seneste år. Ofte endda til trods for at trædata faktisk findes for de senere år. Variationer i temperaturdata fra trædata kan være mindre end de faktiske temperaturvariationer. Derfor kan det give en kunstig “unik” variation i data idet man går fra trædata over i målte temperaturer med mere variation.
  • Vi er lidt forsigtige med at bruge multi-proxier af vidt forskellige datatyper. Forskellige datatyper kan peake med forskellig timing og sammenblandingen kan derfor give udtryk af for lidt variation.
  • Vi foretrækker ikke dataset hvor nogle år er udjævnet med 40-50 års gennemsnit mens nyere år kun er udjævnet med 5 års gennemsnit. Igen, dette giver kunstigt indtryk af mere “unik” variation i de seneste år.
  • Vi foretrækker data hvor de seneste år ikke er baseret på relativt få dataset som grundlag.
  • Vi foretrækker ikke dataset med kendte større kontroverser.

Vi har ikke mulighed for at gennemgå alle dataset i detaljer.

Hvorfor er der forskel på den måde forskellige data typer varierer på?

Som et lille tænkt eksempel kan vi se på en situation hvor vi har et køligt område med en moderat mængde træer. Tiderne skifter, det bliver varmere og træerne vokser bedre, træringene bliver større. Varmen detekteres rigtig fint i træringene. 30 år senere med endnu større varme og bedre levehvilkår, så har flere træer formået at skydde op, overleve og vokse sig store. Tætheden af træer bliver større. Således kan vores gamle træ nu stå mere i skygge eller være i større konkurence med de andre træer om vand og næringsstoffer. Således er væksthastigheden stagneret for det enkelte træ vi måler træringe på – trods mere varme. Træringe kan ikke længere illustrere temperturstigningen.

“The Divergence Problem” som det fremgår helt tilbage i Briffa 2002. De målte temperaturer stiger i de seneste dekader, men træringedata kan ikke bekræfte temperaturstigningen.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249869243_Tree-ring_width_and_density_data_around_the_Northern_Hemisphere_Part_1_local_and_regional_climate_signals

“Divergensproblemet” – at træringedata ofte ikke viser opvarmningen efter ca 1960 – giver naturligvis den bekymring at trædata heller ikke gengiver temeperaturstigninger i fortiden . Bekymringen er, at trædata over længere perioder giver for flade temperaturgrafer: En overgang fra temperaturer baseret på trædata til målte temperaturer kan derfor nemt give en “unik” variation i de målte temperaturer. En kunstig “hockey stick” graf.

Der findes ikke idag et veldokumenteret solidt “konsensus” mht. hvorfor trædata har disse problemer – endskønt forklaringer som foreslået herover er ret oplagte.

Nogle har foreslået at den manglende evne for enkelt-træer til at reflektere varmen efter 1960 skyldes sur nedbør fra menneskets udledninger.

Sur-nedbørs-forklaringen har dog det problem at trædata ganske ofte stammer fra afsides områder på kloden hvor den sure nedbør er særdeles beskeden.

Vi har i de senere år set temperatur-multiproxier hvor man så har brugt en mindre andel af trædataset. Disse multidata arbejder viser mere variation i fortiden og den varme middelalder bliver lidt mere synlig i disse grafer. Men at bruge “bare nogle få trædataset” i multiproxier svarer vel lidt til kun at “hælde lidt vand i benzinen”? Hvad er formålet med overhovedet at forringe data med træserier? Hvis man vil så tæt på korrekte historiske temperaturer som muligt?

IPCC:

Velvidende at der er problemer ved at sætte f.eks. trædata sammen med direkte måte temperaturer, så har IPCC gjort dette. Det kan begrænse fortidens udsving i forhold til nutidens der så kan forekomme “unike”.

IPCC har tilmed på nogle af deres vigtigste grafer for fortidens temperaturer udført “Gaussian 30-50 years” smoothing på gamle data alt imens man har vist de seneste års instrumental data med 5 års smoothing. Igen, dette danner kunstige “hockey-sticks”.

IPCC har i et påfaldende omfang (gen)brugt data fra blot en håndfuld forskere til at vise deres såkaldte “hockeystick” grafer. Visse af netop disse forskere har siden indgået i centrale IPCC funktioner såsom håndtering af indkommende kritik før udgivelse af nye IPCC rapporter samt i ledende roller.

SUMMA:

Herunder er listet nogle af de mange resultater for fortidens temperaturer der er til rådighed. Mange af disse er ikke brugt af IPCC. Der findes meget materiale både med og uden “hockeystick” form der ikke er vist i det følgende.

Nærværende liste omhandler rekonstruerede temperaturforløb for de sidste ca 10.000 år.

For rekonstruerede temperaturforløb de seneste 2000 år se: https://klimarealisme.dk/2019/02/24/temperaturer-gennem-2000-aar/

For rekonstruerede temperaturforløb de seneste 200 år se: https://klimarealisme.dk/2019/02/24/temperaturer-gennem-200-aar/

Thank you to Pierre Gosselin and Kenneth Richards from www.notrickszone.com for their great work. You guys are the best! 🙂

PS: Hvis i kender til et resultat der burde komme med – der opfølger grundkravene formuleret – så skriv det i kommentarerne. Helst af nyere dato, fra 2016 og frem om muligt. Altså helst fortløbende dataset med samme datatype og behandling hele vejen igennem, og helst så vi direkte kan se moderne tid også.

ALPERNE

Bernabei et al 2018
Observations on Holocene subfossil tree remains from high-elevation sites in the Italian Alps
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683618798149?journalCode=hola
Badino et al. 2018.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323150842_8800_years_of_high-altitude_vegetation_and_climate_history_at_the_Rutor_Glacier_forefield_Italian_Alps_Evidence_of_middle_Holocene_timberline_rise_and_glacier_contraction

Heiri and Lotter 2005.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andre_Lotter4/publication/227606714_Holocene_and_Lateglacial_summer_temperature_reconstruction_in_the_Swiss_Alps_based_on_fossil_assemblages_of_aquatic_organisms_A_review/links/56a39e5f08aef91c8c12c446.pdf

ANTARKTIS

Pearson et al 2011. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235534129_A_lacustrine_GDGT-temperature_calibration_from_the_Scandinavian_Arctic_to_Antarctic_Renewed_potential_for_the_application_of_GDGT-paleothermometry_in_lakes
Mikis et al 2018 . Taylor Dome Antarktis.
https://orca.cf.ac.uk/109233/1/2018mikisadphd.pdf
“B) Taylor Dome deuterium record (3-point average) from Ross Embayment, Antarctica indicating decreasing air temperatures across the Holocene (Steig et al., 1998). C) Multi-core reconstruction of Western Tropical Pacific SST (red) and δ18Osw(blue) based on Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca and δ18O (Scott et al., 2004)”

Fudge et al.,2016.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068356/full
Markle and Steig et al., 2017. Southern Ocean .
https://courses.eas.ualberta.ca/eas570/ngeo2848.pdf
Rella and Uchida 2014.
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep04046

ARKTIS

Tarasov et al. 2018. Letland, Norge, Svalbard og Barentshavet.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323595071_Postglacial_vegetation_and_climate_history_and_traces_of_early_human_impact_and_agriculture_in_the_present-day_cool_mixed_forest_zone_of_European_Russia

Fortin and Gajewski 2016.
“in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.”.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003358941600017X

ASIEN

Godad et al., 2011.
http://drs.nio.org:8080/drs/bitstream/handle/2264/3784/Mar_Micropaleontol_78_25a.pdf

ATLANTERHAVET

Kim et al., 2007.
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/35/5/387.abstract

AUSTRALIEN

Perner et al 2018.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322194602_Heat_export_from_the_tropics_drives_mid_to_late_Holocene_palaeoceanographic_changes_offshore_southern_Australia

CANADA

Bajolle et al. 2018. Moderne temperaturer vises med “0-linien”.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10933-018-0045-9
Lemmen and Lacourse, 2018
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10933-017-9998-3
An interval of warmer summers with MJAT of ~16 to 18 °C (2–3 °C warmer than modern) is inferred between ~10,500 and 8000 cal year BP.
Rosenberg et al. 2004

https://iowaclimate.org/2017/08/21/10000-to-5000-years-ago-global-sea-levels-were-3-meters-higher-temperatures-4-6-c-warmer/

EUROPA

Ramos-Roman et al. 2018
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818118301784
Leunda et al. 2018 Pyrenæerne.
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2745.13077
Simon et al. 2017
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2074-1
Thienemann et al. 2017
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683616683261
Krawczyk et al., 2017.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diana_Krawczyk/publication/311713919_Quantitative_reconstruction_of_Holocene_sea_ice_and_sea_surface_temperature_off_West_Greenland_from_the_first_regional_diatom_dataset/links/589b1e0492851c8bb6869571/Quantitative-reconstruction-of-Holocene-sea-ice-and-sea-surface-temperature-off-West-Greenland-from-the-first-regional-diatom-dataset.pdf
Jalali et al.,2016. Hav Vest for Grækenland.
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01297476/document
Moreno et al., 2016. Drue høst, Portugal.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ricardo_Trigo/publication/301338375_Grape_harvest_dates_as_indicator_of_spring-summer_mean_maxima_temperature_variations_in_the_Minho_region_NW_Portugal_since_the_19th_century/links/572c9e9108ae7a42e1334623.pdf
Mark 2016.
http://scarab.bates.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1184&context=honorstheses

GRØNLAND

Lasher et al 2017
“This paper presents a multi proxy lake record of NW Greenland Holocene climate. … Summer temperatures (2.5–4 °C warmer than present) persisted until ∼4 ka [4,000 years ago] … Continual cooling after 4 ka led to coldest temperatures after 1.2 ka, with temperature anomalies 2-3°C below present. Approximately 1000 km to the south, a 2-3°C July temperature anomaly(relative to [warmer than] present) between 6 and 5 ka was reported based upon chironomid assemblages near Illulisat and Jakobshavn (Axford et al., 2013). Across Baffin Bay on northeastern Baffin Island, HTM summer temperatures were an estimated ~5°C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene and 3.5°C warmer than present, based upon chironomid assemblages (Axford et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2007). … Following deglaciation, the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] retreated behind its present margins (by as much as 20-60 km in some parts of Greenland) during the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] (Larsen et al., 2015; Young and Briner, 2015).”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116305650
Dahl-Jensen 1998.

file:///C:/Users/fel/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.IE5/ACTCDYS9/Dahl_Jensen.pdf

McFarlin et al 2018. NØ Grønland, Wax Lip Lake.
LIG = Last Inter Glacial – varmere end vores mellemistid.
Midge-inferred July air temperature at WLL as anomalies relative to modern.
Holocene and LIG lake sediments preserved in situ in the extant lake that we informally designate Wax Lips Lake (WLL) (76.85°N, 66.96°W) – Northeast Greenland.
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6357.short
Li et al 2017.
Her sammenlignes Li et al., 2017 SST data med GISP2 serien. Der har været en diskussion om hvordan GISP2 kan tolkes. Nogle hævder at moderne temperaturer er 1-1,5 grader over niveau for sidste GISP2 datapunkt. Men Li et al., 2017 synes at give et andet bud idet Li et al., fortsætter uden en sådan temperatur peak.
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/704/h
Kobashi 2017
https://static-curis.ku.dk/portal/files/182154134/s41598_017_01451_7.pdf
“the warmest decades occurring during the Holocene (2.9 °C warmer than the recent decades) at 7960 ± 30 years B.P.””
Levy et al. 2018.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15230430.2017.1414477
Perner et al 2018.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bor.12263
Yau et al 2016.
Spændende data fra forrige mellemistid for 115-130.000 år siden. Perioden var væsentligt varmere end noget tidspunkt i Holocene, de seneste 10.000 år.

https://www.pnas.org/content/113/35/9710

ISLAND

Geirsdóttir et al. 2018 . Islandske søer, BSi er et temperatur index for sommer varme.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330242114_The_onset_of_neoglaciation_in_Iceland_and_the_42_ka_event
Geyrsdottir 2018. BSi er et index for sommertemperatur.
https://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2018-130/cp-2018-130.pdf
Andersen et al 2004.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228769230_Nonuniform_response_of_the_major_surface_currents_in_the_Nordic_Seas_to_insolation_forcing_Implications_for_the_Holocene_climate_variabilit
Harning et al., 2016.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Harning/publication/309006686_Early_Holocene_deglaciation_of_Drangajokull_Vestfirdir_Iceland/links/5800e53d08ae5b91e39d48c6.pdf

JAPAN

Kawatha et al 2017
“The maximum SST during Bølling–Allerød period is comparable to the modern SST despite its short duration (of approximately a century or less).”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116306771

KINA

Wang et al. 2018.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Canfa_Wang/publication/325674523_Holocene_temperature_and_hydrological_changes_reconstructed_by_bacterial_3-hydroxy_fatty_acids_in_a_stalagmite_from_central_China/links/5b1d06b9aca272021cf50a03/Holocene-temperature-and-hydrological-changes-reconstructed-by-bacterial-3-hydroxy-fatty-acids-in-a-stalagmite-from-central-China.pdf

Li et al. 2018.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3664-3
Zheng et al 2017.
“Following the early Holocene, temperatures at Hani gradually decreased to values of ~5 °C, close to the observed temperature at Hani across the past 60 yr (4–7.5 °C). [Modern temperatures are about 5-6°C colder than 6,000 to 8,000 years ago.]”
https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/files/136793193/1031.pdf
Li et al 2017
http://link.springer.com./article/10.1007/s00382-017-3664-3

SKANDINAVIEN

Helsinki Commision 2013. Syd-Sverige.

http://www.helcom.fi/Documents/Ministerial2013/Associated%20documents/Supporting/Climate%20change_BSEP137.pdf

Andersen et al 2004. Havoverfladetemperaturer ud for Norges kyst.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228769230_Nonuniform_response_of_the_major_surface_currents_in_the_Nordic_Seas_to_insolation_forcing_Implications_for_the_Holocene_climate_variabilit

SAHARA mv.

Lüning and Vahrenholt, 2018
Figurer med grønt illustrerer mere vand i fortiden i Sahara og Mellemøsten i form af f.eks. søer der idag er udtørrede. Figurer med pink farve illustrerer temperatur serier i samme område. Varmen og frodigheden gik hånd i hånd.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327823688_Holocene_Climate_Development_of_North_Africa_and_the_Arabian_Peninsula

STILLEHAVET

Rosenthal et al. 2017
“Here we review proxy records of intermediate water temperatures from sediment cores in the equatorial Pacific and northeastern Atlantic Oceans, spanning 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record.
These records suggests that intermediate waters were 1.5–2 °C warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than in the last century.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379116304802
Lembke-Jene et al 2018.
Rød: Havoverflade Nordlige Stillehav. Grøn: 500 m dybde, Vestlige Stillehavs ækvator.
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/05/01/1714754115.full.pdf

Zhang et al. 2017.
Western Tropical Pacific områdets temperaturudvikling er tæt forbundet til hyppigheden af El Ninos. Dette at vi har højere temperaturer i dette område tidligere peger på at vore dages El Nino temperaturer næppe er noget usædvanligt.
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0959683617721321
Yamamoto et al., 2016.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Masanobu_Yamamoto/publication/271539853_Climate_reconstruction_based_on_GDGT-based_proxies_in_a_paleosol_sequence_in_Japan_Postdepositional_effect_on_the_estimation_of_air_temperature/links/54ec46bf0cf27fbfd76f0a7f.pdf

TIBET

Liang et al. 2018 ( Hou et al. 2016 )
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00334-018-0697-4
Saini et al. 2017
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116307478

USA

Oswald et al 2018
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/jbi_13407_Rev_EV.pdf

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