by
https://klimarealisme.dk/2019/02/24/temperaturer-gennem-10-000-aar/
Temperaturer gennem 10.000 år
Liste af temperaturdata gennem den igangværende mellemistid. Samlingen vil nu og da blive opdateret. Udbuddet af forskningsresultater på dette felt er stort og vi vægter hvad vi finder mest relevant som følger:
- Grundet det store udbud af resultater giver det mening at prioritere de nyeste arbejder først. Således har vi flest resultater med fra årene 2016-2018 i denne opgørelse.
- Vi foretrækker resultater der til en vis grad gør det muligt at sammenligne nutidens temperaturer med fortidens
- Vi foretrækker resultater der ikke er splejsning af flere forskellige data typer, men helst én fortløbende dataserie. En udbredt fejl i klimavidenskaben er at man sammensætter f.eks. træringe-data med målte temperaturer for de seneste år. Ofte endda til trods for at trædata faktisk findes for de senere år. Variationer i temperaturdata fra trædata kan være mindre end de faktiske temperaturvariationer. Derfor kan det give en kunstig “unik” variation i data idet man går fra trædata over i målte temperaturer med mere variation.
- Vi er lidt forsigtige med at bruge multi-proxier af vidt forskellige datatyper. Forskellige datatyper kan peake med forskellig timing og sammenblandingen kan derfor give udtryk af for lidt variation.
- Vi foretrækker ikke dataset hvor nogle år er udjævnet med 40-50 års gennemsnit mens nyere år kun er udjævnet med 5 års gennemsnit. Igen, dette giver kunstigt indtryk af mere “unik” variation i de seneste år.
- Vi foretrækker data hvor de seneste år ikke er baseret på relativt få dataset som grundlag.
- Vi foretrækker ikke dataset med kendte større kontroverser.
Vi har ikke mulighed for at gennemgå alle dataset i detaljer.
Hvorfor er der forskel på den måde forskellige data typer varierer på?
Som et lille tænkt eksempel kan vi se på en situation hvor vi har et køligt område med en moderat mængde træer. Tiderne skifter, det bliver varmere og træerne vokser bedre, træringene bliver større. Varmen detekteres rigtig fint i træringene. 30 år senere med endnu større varme og bedre levehvilkår, så har flere træer formået at skydde op, overleve og vokse sig store. Tætheden af træer bliver større. Således kan vores gamle træ nu stå mere i skygge eller være i større konkurence med de andre træer om vand og næringsstoffer. Således er væksthastigheden stagneret for det enkelte træ vi måler træringe på – trods mere varme. Træringe kan ikke længere illustrere temperturstigningen.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249869243_Tree-ring_width_and_density_data_around_the_Northern_Hemisphere_Part_1_local_and_regional_climate_signals
“Divergensproblemet” – at træringedata ofte ikke viser opvarmningen efter ca 1960 – giver naturligvis den bekymring at trædata heller ikke gengiver temeperaturstigninger i fortiden . Bekymringen er, at trædata over længere perioder giver for flade temperaturgrafer: En overgang fra temperaturer baseret på trædata til målte temperaturer kan derfor nemt give en “unik” variation i de målte temperaturer. En kunstig “hockey stick” graf.
Der findes ikke idag et veldokumenteret solidt “konsensus” mht. hvorfor trædata har disse problemer – endskønt forklaringer som foreslået herover er ret oplagte.
Nogle har foreslået at den manglende evne for enkelt-træer til at reflektere varmen efter 1960 skyldes sur nedbør fra menneskets udledninger.
Sur-nedbørs-forklaringen har dog det problem at trædata ganske ofte stammer fra afsides områder på kloden hvor den sure nedbør er særdeles beskeden.
Vi har i de senere år set temperatur-multiproxier hvor man så har brugt en mindre andel af trædataset. Disse multidata arbejder viser mere variation i fortiden og den varme middelalder bliver lidt mere synlig i disse grafer. Men at bruge “bare nogle få trædataset” i multiproxier svarer vel lidt til kun at “hælde lidt vand i benzinen”? Hvad er formålet med overhovedet at forringe data med træserier? Hvis man vil så tæt på korrekte historiske temperaturer som muligt?
IPCC:
Velvidende at der er problemer ved at sætte f.eks. trædata sammen med direkte måte temperaturer, så har IPCC gjort dette. Det kan begrænse fortidens udsving i forhold til nutidens der så kan forekomme “unike”.
IPCC har tilmed på nogle af deres vigtigste grafer for fortidens temperaturer udført “Gaussian 30-50 years” smoothing på gamle data alt imens man har vist de seneste års instrumental data med 5 års smoothing. Igen, dette danner kunstige “hockey-sticks”.
IPCC har i et påfaldende omfang (gen)brugt data fra blot en håndfuld forskere til at vise deres såkaldte “hockeystick” grafer. Visse af netop disse forskere har siden indgået i centrale IPCC funktioner såsom håndtering af indkommende kritik før udgivelse af nye IPCC rapporter samt i ledende roller.
SUMMA:
Herunder er listet nogle af de mange resultater for fortidens temperaturer der er til rådighed. Mange af disse er ikke brugt af IPCC. Der findes meget materiale både med og uden “hockeystick” form der ikke er vist i det følgende.
Nærværende liste omhandler rekonstruerede temperaturforløb for de sidste ca 10.000 år.
For rekonstruerede temperaturforløb de seneste 2000 år se: https://klimarealisme.dk/2019/02/24/temperaturer-gennem-2000-aar/
For rekonstruerede temperaturforløb de seneste 200 år se: https://klimarealisme.dk/2019/02/24/temperaturer-gennem-200-aar/
Thank you to Pierre Gosselin and Kenneth Richards from www.notrickszone.com for their great work. You guys are the best! 
PS: Hvis i kender til et resultat der burde komme med – der opfølger grundkravene formuleret – så skriv det i kommentarerne. Helst af nyere dato, fra 2016 og frem om muligt. Altså helst fortløbende dataset med samme datatype og behandling hele vejen igennem, og helst så vi direkte kan se moderne tid også.
ALPERNE
Observations on Holocene subfossil tree remains from high-elevation sites in the Italian Alps
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683618798149?journalCode=hola
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323150842_8800_years_of_high-altitude_vegetation_and_climate_history_at_the_Rutor_Glacier_forefield_Italian_Alps_Evidence_of_middle_Holocene_timberline_rise_and_glacier_contraction
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andre_Lotter4/publication/227606714_Holocene_and_Lateglacial_summer_temperature_reconstruction_in_the_Swiss_Alps_based_on_fossil_assemblages_of_aquatic_organisms_A_review/links/56a39e5f08aef91c8c12c446.pdf
ANTARKTIS
https://orca.cf.ac.uk/109233/1/2018mikisadphd.pdf
“B) Taylor Dome deuterium record (3-point average) from Ross Embayment, Antarctica indicating decreasing air temperatures across the Holocene (Steig et al., 1998). C) Multi-core reconstruction of Western Tropical Pacific SST (red) and δ18Osw(blue) based on Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca and δ18O (Scott et al., 2004)”
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068356/full
https://courses.eas.ualberta.ca/eas570/ngeo2848.pdf
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep04046
ARKTIS
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323595071_Postglacial_vegetation_and_climate_history_and_traces_of_early_human_impact_and_agriculture_in_the_present-day_cool_mixed_forest_zone_of_European_Russia
“in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.”.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003358941600017X
ASIEN
http://drs.nio.org:8080/drs/bitstream/handle/2264/3784/Mar_Micropaleontol_78_25a.pdf
ATLANTERHAVET
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/35/5/387.abstract
AUSTRALIEN
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322194602_Heat_export_from_the_tropics_drives_mid_to_late_Holocene_palaeoceanographic_changes_offshore_southern_Australia
CANADA
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10933-018-0045-9
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10933-017-9998-3
An interval of warmer summers with MJAT of ~16 to 18 °C (2–3 °C warmer than modern) is inferred between ~10,500 and 8000 cal year BP.
https://iowaclimate.org/2017/08/21/10000-to-5000-years-ago-global-sea-levels-were-3-meters-higher-temperatures-4-6-c-warmer/
EUROPA
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818118301784
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2745.13077
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2074-1
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683616683261
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diana_Krawczyk/publication/311713919_Quantitative_reconstruction_of_Holocene_sea_ice_and_sea_surface_temperature_off_West_Greenland_from_the_first_regional_diatom_dataset/links/589b1e0492851c8bb6869571/Quantitative-reconstruction-of-Holocene-sea-ice-and-sea-surface-temperature-off-West-Greenland-from-the-first-regional-diatom-dataset.pdf
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01297476/document
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ricardo_Trigo/publication/301338375_Grape_harvest_dates_as_indicator_of_spring-summer_mean_maxima_temperature_variations_in_the_Minho_region_NW_Portugal_since_the_19th_century/links/572c9e9108ae7a42e1334623.pdf
http://scarab.bates.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1184&context=honorstheses
GRØNLAND
“This paper presents a multi proxy lake record of NW Greenland Holocene climate. … Summer temperatures (2.5–4 °C warmer than present) persisted until ∼4 ka [4,000 years ago] … Continual cooling after 4 ka led to coldest temperatures after 1.2 ka, with temperature anomalies 2-3°C below present. Approximately 1000 km to the south, a 2-3°C July temperature anomaly(relative to [warmer than] present) between 6 and 5 ka was reported based upon chironomid assemblages near Illulisat and Jakobshavn (Axford et al., 2013). Across Baffin Bay on northeastern Baffin Island, HTM summer temperatures were an estimated ~5°C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene and 3.5°C warmer than present, based upon chironomid assemblages (Axford et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2007). … Following deglaciation, the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] retreated behind its present margins (by as much as 20-60 km in some parts of Greenland) during the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] (Larsen et al., 2015; Young and Briner, 2015).”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116305650
file:///C:/Users/fel/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.IE5/ACTCDYS9/Dahl_Jensen.pdf
LIG = Last Inter Glacial – varmere end vores mellemistid.
Midge-inferred July air temperature at WLL as anomalies relative to modern.
Holocene and LIG lake sediments preserved in situ in the extant lake that we informally designate Wax Lips Lake (WLL) (76.85°N, 66.96°W) – Northeast Greenland.
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6357.short
Her sammenlignes Li et al., 2017 SST data med GISP2 serien. Der har været en diskussion om hvordan GISP2 kan tolkes. Nogle hævder at moderne temperaturer er 1-1,5 grader over niveau for sidste GISP2 datapunkt. Men Li et al., 2017 synes at give et andet bud idet Li et al., fortsætter uden en sådan temperatur peak.
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/704/h
https://static-curis.ku.dk/portal/files/182154134/s41598_017_01451_7.pdf
“the warmest decades occurring during the Holocene (2.9 °C warmer than the recent decades) at 7960 ± 30 years B.P.””
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15230430.2017.1414477
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bor.12263
Spændende data fra forrige mellemistid for 115-130.000 år siden. Perioden var væsentligt varmere end noget tidspunkt i Holocene, de seneste 10.000 år.
https://www.pnas.org/content/113/35/9710
ISLAND
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330242114_The_onset_of_neoglaciation_in_Iceland_and_the_42_ka_event
https://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2018-130/cp-2018-130.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228769230_Nonuniform_response_of_the_major_surface_currents_in_the_Nordic_Seas_to_insolation_forcing_Implications_for_the_Holocene_climate_variabilit
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Harning/publication/309006686_Early_Holocene_deglaciation_of_Drangajokull_Vestfirdir_Iceland/links/5800e53d08ae5b91e39d48c6.pdf
JAPAN
“The maximum SST during Bølling–Allerød period is comparable to the modern SST despite its short duration (of approximately a century or less).”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116306771
KINA
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Canfa_Wang/publication/325674523_Holocene_temperature_and_hydrological_changes_reconstructed_by_bacterial_3-hydroxy_fatty_acids_in_a_stalagmite_from_central_China/links/5b1d06b9aca272021cf50a03/Holocene-temperature-and-hydrological-changes-reconstructed-by-bacterial-3-hydroxy-fatty-acids-in-a-stalagmite-from-central-China.pdf
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3664-3
“Following the early Holocene, temperatures at Hani gradually decreased to values of ~5 °C, close to the observed temperature at Hani across the past 60 yr (4–7.5 °C). [Modern temperatures are about 5-6°C colder than 6,000 to 8,000 years ago.]”
https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/files/136793193/1031.pdf
http://link.springer.com./article/10.1007/s00382-017-3664-3
SKANDINAVIEN
http://www.helcom.fi/Documents/Ministerial2013/Associated%20documents/Supporting/Climate%20change_BSEP137.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228769230_Nonuniform_response_of_the_major_surface_currents_in_the_Nordic_Seas_to_insolation_forcing_Implications_for_the_Holocene_climate_variabilit
SAHARA mv.
Figurer med grønt illustrerer mere vand i fortiden i Sahara og Mellemøsten i form af f.eks. søer der idag er udtørrede. Figurer med pink farve illustrerer temperatur serier i samme område. Varmen og frodigheden gik hånd i hånd.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327823688_Holocene_Climate_Development_of_North_Africa_and_the_Arabian_Peninsula
STILLEHAVET
“Here we review proxy records of intermediate water temperatures from sediment cores in the equatorial Pacific and northeastern Atlantic Oceans, spanning 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record.
These records suggests that intermediate waters were 1.5–2 °C warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than in the last century.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379116304802
Rød: Havoverflade Nordlige Stillehav. Grøn: 500 m dybde, Vestlige Stillehavs ækvator.
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/05/01/1714754115.full.pdf
Western Tropical Pacific områdets temperaturudvikling er tæt forbundet til hyppigheden af El Ninos. Dette at vi har højere temperaturer i dette område tidligere peger på at vore dages El Nino temperaturer næppe er noget usædvanligt.
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0959683617721321
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Masanobu_Yamamoto/publication/271539853_Climate_reconstruction_based_on_GDGT-based_proxies_in_a_paleosol_sequence_in_Japan_Postdepositional_effect_on_the_estimation_of_air_temperature/links/54ec46bf0cf27fbfd76f0a7f.pdf
TIBET
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00334-018-0697-4
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116307478
USA
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/jbi_13407_Rev_EV.pdf
I have been checking out a few of your articles and i must say nice stuff. I will make sure to bookmark your site.
I rattling happy to find this website on bing, just what I was searching for : D too saved to my bookmarks.
Hi there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.
What i do not realize is if truth be told how you’re not actually a lot more well-appreciated than you may be now. You’re very intelligent. You recognize thus significantly when it comes to this subject, made me for my part believe it from a lot of various angles. Its like men and women are not involved until it is one thing to do with Lady gaga! Your personal stuffs nice. Always deal with it up!
Yay google is my world beater aided me to find this great site! .
When I originally commented I clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thanks!
Your article helped me a lot, is there any more related content? Thanks!
Pretty! This was a really wonderful post. Thank you for your provided information.
What i do not understood is if truth be told how you are now not actually much more neatly-preferred than you may be right now. You’re very intelligent. You realize therefore considerably on the subject of this matter, made me in my opinion consider it from a lot of numerous angles. Its like men and women don’t seem to be involved except it’s one thing to accomplish with Woman gaga! Your individual stuffs great. All the time care for it up!
There is visibly a lot to realize about this. I believe you made various nice points in features also.
Glad to be one of many visitants on this awful site : D.
I really like your writing style, wonderful info, regards for posting :D. “The superfluous is very necessary.” by Francois Marie Arouet Voltaire.
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good.
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me.
whoah this blog is wonderful i love reading your posts. Keep up the good work! You know, lots of people are hunting around for this info, you could aid them greatly.
It’s in point of fact a nice and useful piece of info. I am glad that you just shared this helpful info with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
There is apparently a bunch to identify about this. I feel you made various good points in features also.
I conceive this site contains some really great info for everyone : D.
I very happy to find this website on bing, just what I was looking for : D likewise saved to bookmarks.
Definitely, what a great website and illuminating posts, I definitely will bookmark your site.Have an awsome day!
Hi! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be okay. I’m absolutely enjoying your blog and look forward to new updates.
Have you ever considered creating an e-book or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based on the same topics you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my audience would enjoy your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e mail.
Wohh exactly what I was searching for, appreciate it for posting.
Usually I don’t read post on blogs, but I wish to say that this write-up very forced me to try and do it! Your writing style has been surprised me. Thanks, very nice article.
I got what you mean ,bookmarked, very nice internet site.
Some genuinely excellent info , Glad I noticed this.
Saved as a favorite, I really like your blog!
Excellent web site. Plenty of useful information here. I?¦m sending it to several buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And naturally, thanks to your effort!
Thanks a bunch for sharing this with all of us you actually know what you are talking about! Bookmarked. Kindly also visit my site =). We could have a link exchange contract between us!
I am so happy to read this. This is the type of manual that needs to be given and not the random misinformation that’s at the other blogs. Appreciate your sharing this best doc.
I’ll immediately grasp your rss as I can not in finding your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Kindly allow me realize in order that I may just subscribe. Thanks.
Your home is valueble for me. Thanks!…
I’ve been absent for some time, but now I remember why I used to love this website. Thanks, I will try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your site?
I like this post, enjoyed this one appreciate it for posting. “Abortion is advocated only by persons who have themselves been born.” by Ronald Reagan.