Banebrytende forskning peker på tvilsomme temperaturdata.
Denne forskningen peker på «fake» homogenisering i det mest brukte datasettet (GHCN fra NOAA) for global temperatur, tallrike endringer som kommer og går fra dag til dag, og som ikke har noen kjent vitenskapelig forankring. Her er noen av de pinlige detaljene.
Hva er homogenisering?
Homogenisering er en prosess som skal sørge for at temperaturdata er sammenlignbare over lengre tidsperioder. De eldste målestasjonene for temperatur kan ha data som strekker seg opptil flere hundre år tilbake, og underveis har man skiftet instrumenter, hatt varierende skjerming av termometeret mot vind og sollys, flyttet på målestasjonen, endret på tidspunktet for måling av temperatur, og i økende grad kan ha hatt en urbanisering rundt termometeret som har skapt utbane varmeøyer. Alt dette vil seriøse meteorologer korrigere for, og de vil dokumentere hva som er gjort. Dette skjer hos de som er ansvarlige for målingene, så homogenisering av norske temperaturdata gjøres av Meteorologisk Institutt, for Island av meteorologene på Island, og så videre.
Et godt eksempel på hvordan man skal homogenisere slik at urbane varmeøyer ikke forurenser landlige dataserier, er når man homogeniserer urbane og landlige temperaturer i to adskilte grupper. Homogeniserer man alle dataene samlet, så forurenser man landlige temperaturdata med urbane varmeøyer, og får dermed en administrativ global oppvarming som ikke eksisterer i virkeligheten.
Men i økende grad behandles temperaturdata av klimatologer, forskere som utgjør en integrert del av klimaindustrien og derfor i mindre grad opptrer objektivt og kan foreta mer enn tvilsomme justeringer av eldre temperaturdata. Der dette skjer helt uten noen dokumentasjon, har vi her ofte omtalt dette som juksteringer. Her kan man se og lytte til prof. Humlum kommentere hvordan GISS juksterer temperaturdata fra Island, data hvor islendingene selv ikke kan se noe behov for det GISS foretar seg.
Evaluering av homogenisering
Denne forskningen fra prof. Peter O’Neill og 16 medforfattere (tittel: «Evaluation of the Homogenization Adjustments Applied to European Temperature Records in the Global Historical Climatology Network Dataset») evaluerer homogenisering foretatt av NOAA på 800 europeiske målestasjoner i datasettet GHCN («Global Historical Climatology Network») over de siste 10 årene. Den homogeniserte versjonen av GHCN er det mest brukte datasettet internasjonalt når man skal finne ut hvor mye global oppvarming kloden har opplevd, og man burde derfor kunne forvente at dette datasettet (både versjon 3 og 4) forvaltes på ansvarlig vis.
NRK, NTB og de andre store mediene her hjemme bruker oftest en temperaturgraf fra GISS, som igjen benytter homogeniserte GHCN-data, og hvor GISS har foretatt ekstra juksteringer i dataene som har resultert i administrativ oppvarming. Inntil nå har de fleste regnet med at dataene GISS får inn fra NOAA har vært troverdige før de foretar egne juksteringer.
NOAA har et dataprogram («Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm» (PHA)) som sammenligner hver målestasjon med 40 nabostasjoner for å identifisere ikke-klimatiske hopp i dataene. Dette er homogenisering av temperatur, og inntil nå har de fleste antatt at NOAA gjør dette på et ryddig vis som kan forsvares vitenskapelig. Forskerne har gjort følgende funn:
- Justeringene for hver stasjon varierer drastisk for hver gang NOAAs dataprogram kjøres
- NOAA har kjørt sitt dataprogram nesten hver dag gjennom 10 år
- Bare 16 % av NOAAs justeringer av temperatur har vært konsistente i perioden på 10 år
- Mindre enn 20 % av NOAAs justeringer stemmer med dokumentert homogenisering utført av de enkelte stasjonene
Studien finner at mange av homogeniserings-justeringene som er utført på dette viktigste datasettet for global temperatur i løpet av de siste 10 årene kan ha vært «spurious». Webster har relativt mange synonymer for «spurious», og få eller ingen av disse bidrar til å styrke tilliten til NOAA.
Forskning ifjor på solas klimapåvirkning viste to helt forskjellige påvirkninger, avhengig av hvem sine data man stolte på. Ved bruk av bare landlige temperaturdata uten udokumentert homogenisering og det beste estimat for TSI (ACRIM) fant forskerne at sola var den suverent viktigste temperaturdriveren, mens de ved bruk av andre temperaturdata, herunder homogeniserte GHCN-data, og IPCC-leirens TSI-påfunn for å bortforklare solas påvirkning (PMOD) fant at sola ikke hadde noen praktisk betydning for klodens klima. For detaljer i denne forskningen se den utmerkede analysen fra Håkon Skaarud Karlsen her.
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