27. September 2023
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De varme 1930-årene er manipulert bort fra debatten

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

De varme 1930-årene er manipulert bort fra debatten

Klimanytt 224, forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad

De varme 1930-årene var blitt et begrep som generelt ble omtalt som klimaforbedring. Den lille istid med sine klimaproblemer hadde virkelig sluppet taket. Oppvarmingen var så markant at da det ble kaldere i 1945–75 var det i 1960–70-årene offentlig frykt for en ny istid.

Varmeperioden i 1930-årene er veldokumentert på alle bauer og kanter. Ut over den langsomme oppvarmingen fra den kaldeste delen av Den lille istid (1660–1720) foreligger det god dokumentasjon på at den er en del av en ca 60-års syklus med 30-årige varme og kalde perioder slik IPCCs benyttede temperaturserie HadCRU også viser. Med særlig markant oppvarming i 20 år gjennom 1860–80, 1920–40 og nå fra 1980–2000. I et BBC-intervju i 2010 beskrev lederen for HadCRU, professor Phil Jones de tre oppvarmingsperioder som tilnærmet identiske. Fauerskov Nielsen et al. (2012) har funnet liknende syklus 8000 år tilbake i Arktis.

Vi har på vår nettside og i foredrag ofte omtalt oppvarmingsperioden 1920–40. Da var forholdene i Arktis omtrent like varme som nå ifølge HadCRU i 2007 (KN 123), Grønland med bl.a. Nuuk (KN 128), isen i Arktis (KN 53, 74, 82, 121) og temperaturene omtalt i KN 217 og KN 221. Atlanterhavstrømmens betydning var velkjent og omtalt i bl.a. rapporten til Fiskeridepartementet i 1990 (KN 217).

Det var omtrent like lite is i området Grønland til Novaja Semlja ifølge Polarinstituttets isforsker Torgny Vinje (J. Climate 2001). Ikke så rart fordi Atlanterhavstrømmen utenfor våre kyster var 2,2 ºC varmere i 1944 enn i 1915 slik Figuren viser med sin blå kurve (Harald Yndestad, J. Marine sci. 60, s. 1251) basert på målinger av Golfstrømmen utenfor Skottland og Kolahalvøya fra ca. år 1900. Den sorte middelkurven (glem rød og grønn kurve) stemmer jo bra med maksimale isforhold rundt 1980 i Arktis ifølge Øiestads rapport i 1990 (KN 217). Og alt dette skjedde før menneskeskapte utslipp av CO2 hadde betydning (Figur KN 213).

For Aftenposten som i dagens klimadebatt utelater omtale av varmeperioden, må det være pinlig å bli minnet om sine tidligere skriverier på 1930-tallet. Den gang var avisen seg bevisst et omdømme som en kvalitetsavis med riktig og relevant informasjon. Her gjengis omtaler jeg fant på nettet. Det finnes sikkert flere:

Aftenposten 17. august 1937 side 3: «Professor Kurt Wegener på gjennomreise fra et “isfritt” Svalbard……Jeg la selv merke til adskillige forandringer på Svalbard. Fjorder og sund som det var umulig å komme inn i på grunn drivisen, er nu helt isfrie – Hornsund, Bellsund, Isfjord for eksempel. Et par av mine reisekamerater drog på en lengre rundtur hvor de konstaterte isfritt vann de fleste steder. 14-juli-breen i Cross Bay har trukket seg adskillig tilbake – et lignende fenomen som jeg hører man har konstatert flere andre steder i nordområdene. Med meteorologien som bakgrunn kommer vi inn på den varmeperioden som i de senere år hjemsøker Nord-Europa og som ikke minst viser sig i en stadig sterkere oppvarming».

Aftenposten 18. oktober 1937: «Hva isforholdene angår har det visstnok ikke i manns minne været som iår. Selv nu i oktober var det isfritt i alle fjorder. Samtlige isbreer på Spitsbergen er i år gått voldsomt tilbake…Fortalt av skipper Gustav Jensen (“Blåsel”).»

Aftenposten 25. august 1938 side 3: Spitsbergens kystlinjer forandrer sig merkbart. Ikke bare har isbreene hatt en veldig tilbakegang de siste årene, men selve kystlinjen har forandret sig flere steder, så det er nesten ikke til å kjenne seg igjen der oppe. Det store omslaget fant sted i 1918 og siden da har det stadig blitt mildere. Middeltemperaturen om vinteren fra november til mars er siden omslaget i 1912 og 1918 steget med hele 7 grader og sommertemperaturen har steget med 1 grad. Adolf Hoel (red.anm, lesertips, også omtalt i avisen februar 1925).

Dagbladet omtalte høsten 1945 i en bagatellmessig 6-linjers spalte om at det «snart var isfritt til Nordpolen» ifølge Pravda. Firdaposten hadde også på slutten av 1930-tallet innslag om isbreene på Svalbard som var gått sterkt tilbake. Sunnmørsposten den 2. januar 1940: «Sia den store snøvinteren i 1931 … har det vært så lite snø at det har vært heilt ubetydelig trafikk av skiløpere…». I boken om Snø i Nordmarka fremstår varmeperioden i 1930-årene med reduserte snømengder og muligheter for skigåing.

Varmeperioden er helt i tråd med den mye omtalte rapporten fra Adolf Hoel (1923, KN 121 og andre internasjonale rapporter) om et mye varmere Arktis allerede i 1922 med samme karakteristikker i tillegg til at vannet ble målt til 9–15 ºC nord for Svalbard mot normalt 3 ºC.

Det er påfallende hvorledes dette har gått helt i glemmeboken. Først i 2016 skrev Aftenpostens Ole Mathismoen om at økte vinder drev vesentlig større ismengder ut av Framstredet (KN 121), men ikke et ord om Atlanterhavstrømmens variasjoner som påpekt i KN 121 og 217 som omtaler tidligere rapporter med bred dokumentasjon for dominerende naturlige endringer. NRK er jo helt fraværende. Norske oseanografer som bekjenner seg til IPCC omtaler bare målinger av Atlanterhavsstrømmen i Svinøyrenna utenfor Måløy (fra 1996). Tidsserien er da så kort at man ‘slipper’ å omtale målingene ved Skottland og Kola fra år 1900 der naturlige variasjoner fremstår entydig.

Disse fakta passer ikke inn i den politiske agenda om at CO2 styrer klima, så da byttes fakta med hersketeknikker. Det er slik man må forklare at Norges delegasjon ved godkjenning av IPCC-rapporten i 2007 stemte for Canadas forslag om å sløyfe referanser til varmeperioden i 1930-årene. Og de fleste norske medier følger opp – ikke av uvitenhet, men som en redaksjonell linje. Uvitenskapelig og pinlig.

scientist dubietas

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