by
Ytring:
Det grønne skiftet er ugjennomførlig. Universitetsavisa.no
Det sies og snakkes mye om det såkalte «grønne skiftet» hvor verden i 2050 skal være fri for bruk av «fossil» energi, dvs. olje, gass og kull.
Det grønne skiftet vil aldri bli gjennomført fordi det er for ødeleggende for verdens økonomi og miljø, argumenterer Geir Hasnes i denne ytringen.. Foto: Privat
Geir HasnesUNIVERSITETSLEKTOR II, INSTITUTT FOR TEKNISK KYBERNETIKK, NTNU
PUBLISERT Tirsdag 02. februar 2021 – 16:07 SIST OPPDATERT Onsdag 10. februar 2021 – 13:53
Antallet vindturbiner i teksten kom feil ut. Det er nå rettet opp fra 263 millioner vindturbiner til 28,750 000 vindturbiner.
Jeg har derfor regnet på behovet for energikilder i 2050.
En ekstrapolering fra verdens energiforbruk siden 1980 gir et behov for 242 petawatt-timer i 2050, hvorav 193 petawatt-timer vil komme fra «fossile» energiformer. Ved å gå over til «fornybar» energi må vi kunne generere 22 terawatt kontinuerlig i 2050 for å erstatte «fossil» energibruk.
Starter vi i dag, 1. februar 2021, og skal være i mål 1. januar 2050, må det hver dag installeres 2,08 gigawatt kapasitet. (Merk at jeg ikke tar med ledig kapasitet for å ta unna effekt-topper da disse er vanskelige å beregne for hele verden. Man kan sikkert gange med to, og dette er altså minimumskrav.)
Setter vi opp vindturbiner på 2,5 megawatt med 40% kapasitetsfaktor betyr det at det må settes opp 2080 slike vindturbiner hver dag i 30 år. Disse må i tillegg ha backup i form av enorme batterier eller mer stabile kraftverk. Med en gjennomsnittlig levetid på 20 år må altså antallet dobles fra 2041 til 2050. Deretter – med utflating av energiforbruket i 2050 – må det tas ned og settes opp 2080 slike turbiner hver dag i all evighet.
Legger vi ut solpaneler, og bruker 10W pr kvadratmeter som sannsynlig produksjon, må vi dekke et område på 208 kvadratkilometer hver dag. Med en gjennomsnittlig levetid på 25 år må vi i 2046 doble antallet, og fra 2050 – igjen med antatt utflating av energibehovet – må vi fjerne og legg ut nye 208 kvadratkilometer solpaneler hver dag i all evighet.
Setter vi opp atomkraftverk med en gjennomsnittlig produksjon på 1 gigawatt, må det bygges to atomkraftverk hver dag fremover.
Fortsetter vi å bygge vannkraftverk, med størrelse i snitt som Alta-kraftverket som genererer 150 megawatt, må det bygges 14 slike kraftverk om dagen.
I dag finnes det 400-500 000 vindturbiner i verden. Vi trenger 28,750 000 vindturbiner hvis vind skal løse det grønne skiftet, frem til 2050. De vil alene dekke mer enn halve Norge. For å unngå turbulens opererer man med 5 ganger rotordiameter. Dette gir et areal på minst 3,7 millioner kvadratkilometer, så stort som India eller halve Australia.
I dag finnes det 440 atomkraftverk i verden. Vi trenger 21 000 atomkraftverk hvis disse skal løse det grønne skiftet.
I dag produserer ca 50 000 vannkraftverk 1,3 terawatt. Vi trenger da ca 650 000 vannkraftverk hvis disse skal løse det grønne skiftet.
Når det gjelder solpanelene vil disse måtte dekke et areal på størrelse med Saudi-Arabia, med tillegg for infrastruktur osv.
El-nettet verden over overfører i dag omkring 25 petawatt-timer pr år. Hvis el-nettet skal overføre 242 petawatt-timer må det tidobles over hele kloden.
Sementproduksjonen som også bidrar til CO2-økningen i atmosfæren, må nå økes betraktelig for å lage vannkraftverk og atomkraftverk samt baser for vindturbiner.
Energibruken for å fremstille disse fire fornybare kraftproduksjonsmidlene, vil være ufattelig. De er ikke regnet på her.
Det er heller ikke regnet på om det er nok sjeldne metaller i verden til å produsere alle disse kraftproduksjonsmidlene og batteriene som trengs.
Når det gjelder vannkraft er det tvilsomt at det finnes nok utnyttbart areal. Når det gjelder solkraft vil avfallsproblemet bli ufattelig. Når det gjelder vindkraft er det også et spørsmål om det er nok areal og avfallsproblemet vil bli enormt. Når det gjelder kjernekraft er det et spørsmål om det finnes nok uran.
En 2,5 megawatt vindturbin koster gjennom livsløpet omkring 4,65 millioner dollar. Disse vil koste 3,5 billioner dollar per år.
Kjernekraftverkene koster omkring 7,5 millarder dollar å bygge. De vil koste 5,4 billioner dollar per år. Fordelen med dem er at de varer 3-5 ganger så lenge som vindturbiner.
Norges bruttonasjonalprodukt ligger på 33. plass i verden. 99 land har mindre enn 10% av Norges BNP, hvorav 35 land har mindre enn 1% av Norges BNP. Hvor er pengene?
Fire land har mer enn ti ganger så stort BNP som Norge. Av disse fortsetter Kina å bygge kullkraftverk og Tyskland vil ikke ha kjernekraft og er fullt av vindturbiner allerede.
I all debatt om det «grønne skiftet» ser jeg ingen rasjonalitet i debatten omkring økonomi, logistikk, industrialisering, gruvedrift, og den generelle rasering av miljøet.
Det grønne skiftet er kort sagt ikke gjennomførbart. Det vil aldri bli gjennomført fordi det er for ødeleggende for verdens økonomi og miljø.
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time – amid a torrent of rumors he and Jennifer Lopez are going through a rough patch in their marriage.
The pair had not been seen together for 47 days until this Thursday, when they
put on a united front to attend a school production for Ben’s 15-year-old child Fin.
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Ben Affleck has been spotted without his ring for the first time – amid a torrent of rumors he and Jennifer Lopez are
going through a rough patch in their marriage
One day after his first sighting with Jennifer in seven weeks, Ben was glimpsed driving his car in the evening in Los Angeles
– and strikingly, his left hand was completely bare
Ben Affleck has been spotted without his ring for the first time – amid a torrent of rumors he and Jennifer
Lopez are going through a rough patch in their marriage;
pictured February
Ben’s sighting came on the heels of claims that
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their first engagement – were together to attending a school production for Fin Affleck, who uses the pronoun ‘they.’
An eyewitness told DailyMail.com that ‘Ben did not
look happy to see JLo as she arrived at a show for one of his kids.’
‘When he saw her get out of her car, they did
not hug or kiss,’ the observer noted of the actor,
51, and his wife, 54, who arrived separately and met
up in a parking lot.
Despite not engaging in any public displays of affection, Jennifer brought Ben’s child a beautiful bouquet of sunflowers to celebrate their performance.
Read More
Jennifer Lopez fuels divorce rumors as she LIKES scathing break-up post
about ‘lack of integrity and respect’
The two-time Oscar winner also brought flowers.
An insider told Perez Hilton that ‘nothing would have stopped
them coming together for the kids’ and that ‘the marriage drama comes second.’
‘They are putting on a united front. Jen showed up with Emme to
support Fin. Emme’s super attached to Fin, so it’s only natural that Jen, no matter what she’s going through
with Ben, was there,’ the source said.
The insider noted that Lopez’s 16-year-old,
Emme, ‘was super excited’ and ‘jumping for joy over Fin’s performance.’
There seemed to be no tension between Lopez and Affleck’s son Samuel,
12, as she walked with her arms around his shoulders, at one
point.
For the occasion, the Marry Me actress rocked a
beige button-down, tucked into a pair of light-wash flared jeans,
and a pair of stilettos.
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been staying at a home in Brentwood without her.
Affleck wore a dark blue flannel, grey graphic t-shirt,
jeans and a pair of Nike sneakers.
Claims circulated this week that Ben has been living separately from Jennifer and is
currently ensconced in a $100,000 a month rental property (pictured)
The pair had not been seen together for 47 days until this Thursday, when they put
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child Fin
While Samuel was present for the majority of the pair’s time together, Affleck and
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and she put on her aviator sunglasses.
The trio ultimately walked over to the school together as
a family.
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Affleck is said to have driven his wife and Emme back to their
home, but ‘returned alone to his rental.’
This comes amid a TMZ report on Thursday which claims that Affleck and Lopez have
been living apart.
An eyewitness told DailyMail.com that ‘Ben did not look happy to see JLo as she arrived at a show for one of his kids’
on Thursday; the pair are pictured in May 2023
Another source told People that Ben hasn’t been staying at their home and instead staying another
one of their homes in LA so he can film The Accountant
2.
Jennifer has recently been in New York a lot – to
film her movie Kiss of the Spider Woman, her promotional tour for her movie Atlas and
also for the Met Gala, which she went solo.
Ben attended the Roast of Tom Brady earlier this month during a break from filming.
DailyMail.com has reached out to representatives for both
Affleck and Lopez for comment.
On Thursday morning, Ben was seen driving near the home he is
reportedly staying in once again without J-Lo.
Prior to their latest sighting, the celebrity couple known as ‘Bennifer,
‘ were last seen together seven weeks ago, at the end of March, while grabbing lunch in New York
City.
On Wednesday, it was reported that the pair ‘just couldn’t make it work’
and are headed for a split after less than two years of marriage.
A source who spoke with In Touch claimed Affleck has already
moved out of their marital home.
‘The writing is on the wall – it’s over,’ the insider stated, adding, ‘They’re headed for a divorce – and
for once, [Ben’s] not to blame!’
On Wednesday, it was reported that the pair ‘just couldn’t make it work’
and are headed for a split after less than two years of marriage;
the pair are pictured in December
The source alleged the actor has moved out from the $60 million home he shares with Lopez.
The mother-of-two was seen house hunting in Beverly Hills without Ben on Tuesday.
‘He’s focusing on his work and his kids now. Ben already moved out and they’ll likely have to sell the dream house
they spent two years searching for,’ the insider went on to say.
‘They’ll never stop loving each other, but she can’t control
him, and he can’t change her. There’s no way it
could have lasted.’
Jennifer’s decision to release her Amazon Prime documentary, The Greatest Love Story Never Told, in February, which chronicled her love story
with Ben, seemingly put a strain on the pair’s marriage.
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Jennifer Lopez breaks down in tears as she reveals what husband
Ben Affleck made her ‘see’ in herself in new documentary
The candid show was the third part of her very public
$20 million tribute to Ben, which also consisted of ‘his Is Me… Now: A Love Story,
a semi autobiographical ‘musical rom-com action sci-fi’ film and her single, This Is Me…
Now.
The source said, ‘Ben would never try to stifle [Jennifer]’s dreams
or tell her she can’t do something that advances her career, even though she can be quite controlling of him.’
On Wednesday Lopez wore a sporty look while heading to a dance studio.
She kept comfortable in a cropped sweater, beige pants and
sneakers.
Her honey-toned tresses were pulled into a ponytail and she rocked
a pair of hoop earrings.
The day prior the multi-hyphenate appeared to be looking at new mega-mansions.
It has only been a year since Lopez and Affleck bought the $60.85 million, 46,000-square foot abode they
currently own.
The home — referred to as the ‘Wallingford estate’
— sits on a five-acre promontory and boasts 12 bedrooms and 24
bathrooms.
Lopez was solo for her co-chairing duties at the glitzy Met Gala in New York on May 6, with many surprised that
Affleck skipped the event
Fans have pointed out that the pair have been spending a
lot of time apart lately, and attending events without each other.
Lopez was solo for her co-chairing duties at the glitzy Met
Gala in New York on May 6, with many surprised that Affleck
skipped the event.
Ben is said to have been working on The Accountant 2, but the source said he ‘decided to call it quits’ on his marriage to the singer.
Meanwhile Affleck was on his own while appearing at The Roast of Tom Brady
on May 5th.
During their last outing together the pair appeared
strained, with neither cracking a smile as they grabbed lunch
at Cecconi’s.
Tensions were seemingly starting to bubble to the surface in Lopez’s recent documentary, where Affleck admitted he wasn’t comfortable with
having such a public relationship.
The director confessed, ‘Getting back together,
I said, “Listen, one of the things I don’t want is a relationship on social media.’ Then I sort of realized it’s not a fair thing to ask. It’s sort of, like, you’re going to marry a boat captain and you go, “Well,
I don’t want the water.” We’re trying to learn to compromise.’
Throughout the show, Ben makes it clear that he doesn’t like shining the spotlight on their love life, calling their private moments ‘sacred’ and rolling his eyes when he recalls Jennifer sharing all their old love notes with her friends and colleagues.
Meanwhile the Jenny from the Block hitmaker added, ‘I don’t think [Ben] is very comfortable with me doing this, [but] he doesn’t want to stop me.
Prior to their latest sighting, the celebrity couple known as ‘Bennifer,’ were last seen together seven weeks ago, at the end of March, while grabbing lunch in New York City (seen in January 2024)
Affleck made it apparent in the documentary that the intense scrutiny in the early scrutiny when they were first dating in 2003 caused the couple to split just before they were se to get married.
The actor blamed it on ‘the massive amount of scrutiny around our private life.’
The couple’s love story started in 2002 when they dated while filming the movie Jersey Girl. They became engaged the following year but broke up in 2004. They then rekindled their romance in the spring of 2021.
The duo married in a Las Vegas ceremony in July 2022, followed by a lavish wedding at his Georgia estate on August 2022.
They detailed the highs and lows of their rekindled romance in J Lo’s new documentary, yet while she is hellbent on publicly declaring her love, she openly admits Ben is ‘uncomfortable’ being her muse.
Ben shared: ‘Things that are private, I’d always felt are sacred and special because in part they’re private… So this was something of an adjustment for me.’
It’s not the first time fans have speculated about there being trouble in paradise in the couple’s marriage.
In May of last year Ben appeared to slam the car door after Jennifer sat in the passenger seat, causing fans to go in a frenzy on social media.
Fans took to Twitter to comment on the viral clip, noting that he looked ‘miserable.’
That same month they were caught having yet another tense exchange in public.
Lopez is hitting the road next month with a string of dates across North America in support of her ninth studio album, This is Me… Now; seen in February 2024
The couple were driving in Beverly Hills when they stopped at a red light and engaged in a heated conversation.
Photos taken by a European tourist and obtained exclusively by DailyMail.com showed a visibly frustrated Ben, who was behind the wheel, talking to Jennifer as she sat in the passenger seat of his Rivian electric SUV, with the windows rolled down.
The two also looked serious as they hit the red carpet at the premiere for her movie The Mother in May. The Get Loud songstress had a frown on her face and was gesticulating at her husband while he looked angry.
The pair also raised eyebrows at the 2023 Grammy awards, when they were captured sharing an awkward moment where the star seemingly snapped at her partner.
Jennifer shares twins Emme and Max, 16, with ex-husband Marc Anthony. Upon tying the knot with Ben, she also became stepmother to his children whom he welcomed with ex-wife Jennifer Garner: Violet, 18, Seraphina, 15, and Samuel, 12.
Garner was notable for her absence at Affleck’s wedding in Georgia, with his brother Casey also declining to attend after saying he had prior parental commitments in Los Angeles.
It’s been a stormy month for Lopez, who was reportedly at the center of crisis talks over her upcoming tour, with organizers keen to pull the plug over poor ticket sales to stave embarrassment – but the singer and her manager refused, insiders have claimed.
Read More
EXCLUSIVE
Meet Fin! Jennifer Garner and Ben Affleck’s 15-year-old daughter, formerly Seraphina Rose, debuts new name during grandfather’s funeral
Lopez is hitting the road next month with a string of dates across North America in support of her ninth studio album, This is Me… Now.
But with only a matter of weeks to go, she is still facing a worrying lack of sales, with blocks of seating still available at multiple venues, according to official seat maps on Ticketmaster, and resale sites scalping tickets for as little as $10.
Now, multiple insiders have claimed Live Nation, the promoter behind the tour, recently suggested canceling all 30 dates – but no one, including her long term manager Benny Medina, was able to convince her.
Medina urged Lopez to create her latest album This Is Me.. Now, which centers around the rekindling of her relationship with Affleck 20 years after the two separated.
Affleck and Matt Damon’s company Artists Equity financed the documentary, while Lopez self financed her film This Is Me…Now: A Love Story for $20 million.
Lopez’s former publicist, Rob Shuter, uttered similar sentiments during an interview with the The New York Post, claiming her mistake was thinking people still care about her love story with Affleck.
‘Jennifer’s always been a marketing and PR genius but her biggest miscalculation here is that she thinks the world is still interested in Ben and Jennifer’s love story,’ he said.
‘But no one cares about Bennifer anymore. The world has moved on.’
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