28. May 2023

Global temperatur juni 2021

 

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/07/02/global-temperatur-juni-2021/

Global temperatur juni 2021

Vi har temperaturdata for juni fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for juni er med –0,01 C lite ned fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.

UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren

UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Juni 2021 er med (-0,01 C) lite ned fra forrige måneds (0,08 C).

  • Nordlige halvkule noe opp til 0,30 o C, fra 0,14 C forrige mnd.
  • Sydlige halvkule klart ned til -0,32 o C, fra 0,03 C forrige mnd.
  • Tropene litt ned til -0,14 C, fra 0,06 C forrige mnd.
  • USA48 kraftig opp til 1,44 C, fra -0,41 C forrige mnd.
  • Arktis klart opp, til 0,63 C, fra -0,04 C forrige mnd.
  • Australia klart ned til -0,76 C, fra 0,02 C forrige mnd.

Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære, men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære. Dr. Spencer kommenterer måneden med at USA hadde høyeste junitall, mens Antarktis hadde nest laveste.

Figuen viser at det er Ingen global oppvarming denne måneden heller.

Temperaturtrend

Dette med trend er et tema som de troende elsker å kommentere, med henvisning til Dr. Spencers tall, lineær varmetrend siden januar 1979 på +0.14 C/tiår (+0.12 C/tiår over hav, og +0.18 C/tiår over). Da hopper man lite elegant over FNs klimapanel som bekrefter i siste hovedrapport opphøret («hiatus») i global oppvarming fra 1998. Det har altså funnet sted et trendskifte rett før tusenårsskiftet, og Klimapanelet gir oss også tallene, som enkelte ikke liker: WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010: «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012»

Interessant her er at statistisk usikkerhet i observasjonene er større enn den gjenværende trenden, som da sannsynligvis representerer støy. Det tier klimapanelet om, pussig nok. Klimapanelets tall er for bakkeobservert temperatur, men flere analytikere inklusive prof. Ross McKitrick har vist at opphøret av signifikat oppvarming også fant sted i ulike høyder i troposfæren, men ikke samtidig alle steder.

Det er derfor interessant når professor Jan-Erik Solheim i vedlegget til Klimanytt 294 (kan leses i sin helhet her) har følgende kommentar til sin figur 6, gjengitt her:

Trenden i oppvarmingen blir altså mer og mer bagatellmessig med de nye tallene, 0,02 °C pr tiår, med samme usikkerhetsintervall. Det er i beste fall et syltynt grunnlag for symbolske men kostbare klimatiltak.

ENSO-varsler

ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña  (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.

NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (28. juni) på en svak La Niña sesong fra senhøsten og gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. La Niña-sesongen vi meldte om i april, men som ble borte i mai, er altså tilbake igjen. Men hva skjer når høsten kommer?

Meteorologene  i Australia melder nøytrale forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet (sydlige halvkule). De viser i en analyse 22. juni til at de fleste internasjonale klimamodeller viser nøytrale forhold med langsom nedkjøling av havtemperatur de neste seks månedene.

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  162. خودارضایی سالم چیست؟ Four راز نگفته شده

    محققان می‌گویند در مردان بالای 50 سال انجام خودارضایی باعث تخلیه پروستات از مایعی که دارای مواد سرطان زا
    است خواهد شد. به طور کلی، جامعه پزشکی
    خودارضایی را یک عمل طبیعی و از نظر جنسی عملی بی‌خطر برای مردان و
    زنان می‌داند. اگر خودارضایی باعث شود شخص تمایلی به شریک
    جنسی خود نداشته باشد یا باعث ایجاد استرس
    برای فرد شود، یک مشکل به حساب
    می‌آید. اگر خودارضایی به طور اجباری انجام شود یا با زندگی
    و فعالیت‌های روزانه فرد تداخل داشته باشد، باعث ایجاد استرس برای فرد می‌شود.
    خود ارضایی در میان دختران و
    پسران و متأسفانه حتی در میان زنان و مردان آمار تلخی دارد و تلخ تر از
    آن عوارض بسیار بد این مشکل است که در مجله سلامت نمناک می خوانید.

    ورزش را جزء برنامه های لاینفک زندگی روزمره خود قرار دهید.
    علاوه بر خواندن نمازهای واجب،
    خواندن قرآن و ادعیه و نماز شب در ترک اعمال و عادات بد
    موثر است. اطلاعات مندرج در این پایگاه فقط جهت مطالعه کاربران با رعایت شرایط اعلام شده
    است. نسخه‌برداری و بازنشر اطلاعات
    به هر روش، در هر نوع رسانه و با هر هدفی ممنوع و پیگرد قانونی دارد.

    همچنین، اگر شما نیز به انجام این کار
    گرایش دارید، می توانید با کارشناسان و رواشناسان دکتر فکر تماس
    گرفته و برای ترک درست و با ثبات آن
    مشاوره تخصصی دریافت نمایید. در زمانی که شما این عمل را با احساس گناه انجام دهید نه تنها به رفع نیاز جنسی نمی پردازید
    و بلکه دچار مشکلات دیگری هم می شوید.
    خودارضایی در نزد مردان و به خصوص نوجوانان، یک امر شایع است؛ اما دختران و زنانی نیز هستند که ناخودآگاه به این عمل آشنا و در دام عوارض
    پس از انجام آن گرفتار می‌شوند.
    لذت خود ارضایی دختران تنها براي چند دقیقه است و پس از
    آن دوباره عین حالت قبل می شوید و فقط
    عوارض خود ارضایی است که براي شما باقی مانده است.
    در دختران خود ارضایی ممکن است با تخیلات جنسی، دیدن تصاویر و فیلم صورت گیرد
    که فرد با دیدن این تصاویر
    به هیجان می رسد و دچار خود ارضایی یا
    استشها می شود. تفاوت استمنا و استشها این است که به خودارضایی مردان، استمنا و به خودارضایی
    در زنان ، استشها گفته می شود. ترک خودارضایی نیاز به مقدمات و پروسه های
    خاصی دارد و مشاوران دکتر فکر می توانند شما را در فضایی دوستانه یاری دهند.
    اما این فواید در صورتی خود را نشان می دهند که ذهنیات و
    روحیات نیز با آنها در یک جهت باشد.
    یعنی شادمانی که پس از این عمل از نظر کارشناسان به وجود
    می آید به دلیل احساس گناه سرکوب شده و منجر به ایجاد تنش هایی در درون
    فرد می گردد.
    به دلیل حساسیت های فرهنگی موجود بررسی و تحقیق در این مورد کمی
    سخت به نظر می رسد به این علت که خانم ها خودارضایی
    خود را پنهان می کنند. اما آماری که به دست آمده است بین ۴۰
    تا ۸۰ درصد در جوامع مختلف متغییر است.

    این مسئله در سنین متفاوت هم شیوع مختلفی دارد ولی
    همین آمار نشان می دهد درصد زیادی از آن ها
    خود ارضایی می کنند ولی به علت دستورات دینی و عرف نبودن در جامعه و فرهنگ
    همچنین احساس گناهان را بازگو نمی کنند.
    در مقابل، افراد و منابعی هم هستند که عمل خودارضایی را
    تائید کرده و آن را راه حلی برای دور ماندن از بسیاری از مشکلات و گرفتاری ها می دانند.
    چیزی که واقعیت دارد این است که خودارضایی
    عملی بین این دو حالت است.
    یعنی همان طور که نمی توان مضرات و آسیب
    های خودارضایی را نادیده گرفت، نمی توان خط بطلان
    بر موارد مثبتی کشید که با خودارضایی همراه هستند.

    شاید یکی از مهم ترین مشکلاتی که در خودارضایی دختران
    و عوارض آن وجود دارد اختلالات زندگی روزمره زناشویی است.
    یکی از عمده ترین این اختلالات عدم به اورگاسم رسیدن دختر از طریق دخول و رابطه جنسی بین زن و شوهر است.
    این امر باعث می شود که دختر در ابتدا
    نسبت به رابطه جنسی سرد شده و نیاز جنسی خود را همانند دوران مجردی
    با خودارضایی رفع نماید و در راستای همین سرد شدن، رابطه بین زن و مرد نیز سرد می شود که این نقطه ای برای
    شروع مشکلات زناشویی است.
    تفاوت خودارضایی در خانم ها و آقایان به شکل جزئی تر
    نیز مطرح بوده و در جنس یکسان نیز افراد مختلف به شکل های مختلفی خودارضایی می کنند.

    اما اگر خود ارضایی منجر به جنابت داشته اید، در صورتی که قبل …
    اگر یقین به جنابت دارد، تمام
    اعمالی که بعد آن در عمره انجام داده است، چون مشروط به طهارت است،
    اشکال پیدا می‌کند ولی در
    صورتی که شک داشته باشد از این جهت، مشکلی
    متوجه او نیست. از طرفی مجرد
    سربرگرداندن در طواف موجب بطلان طواف نمی‌شود.
    سعی دادن با ویلچر نیز در فرض سؤال که میتوانسته شخصاً انجام دهد باطل است، بنابراین توصیه شده است قبل از ازدواج مجددا
    به عمره رفته و اعمال آن را به جا آورد
    و در امکان نداشتن چنین سفری؛ به شخصی نیابت دهد تا به جای
    او این اعمال را به جا آورد.

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