21. March 2023

Global temperatur november 2020

 

Vi har temperaturdata for november fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for november er med +0,53 C nær uendret fra forrige måned. November ifjor var på +0,55 C så dette er heller ikke varmeste november – noensinne som de pleier å formulerer det i propagandaen. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer hvordan man beregner klimaet. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.

UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren

UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1981-2010. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. November 2020 er med (+0,53 C) nær uendret fra forrige måneds (+0,54 C).

Med en blomstrende La Niña i Stillehavet som også er offisielt anerkjent i land som USA, vil det ta opptil flere måneder før lav overflatetemperatur forplanter seg til troposfæren. Merk at temperaturavviket for tropene (20N-20S) har sunket for tredje måned på rad og nå er det laveste på ca to år. Man ser den kjølende effekten av La Niña klarest i månedene februar, mars eller april, ifølge Dr. Spencer.

  • Nordlige halvkule noe ned til 0,67 o C, fra 0,71 C forrige mnd.
  • Sydlige halvkule noe opp til 0,39 o C, fra 0,37 C forrige mnd.
  • Tropene videre ned til 0,29 C, fra 0,37 C forrige mnd.
  • USA48 klart opp til 1,57 C, fra 1,10 C forrige mnd.
  • Arktis noe opp, til 1,38 C, fra 1,23 C forrige mnd.
  • Australia kraftig opp til 1,41 C, fra 0,24 C forrige mnd.

Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære, men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.

ENSO-varsler

ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña  (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.

NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (23. november) «La Niña» forhold på nordlige halvkule. Sannsynligheten for La Niña i vinter er 95 %, med 65 % sjanse for våren (mars – mai).  Som man ser av figuren til venstre, hvor den tykke sorte linjen er gjennomsnittet av de ulike modellene, har havtemperaturen sunket under normalen, og dette gjelder ikke bare overflaten, men også for de øverste 300 metrene av havet.

Meteorologene  i Australia melder La Niña forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet. De viser i en analyse 24. november til at klimamodellene forutsier La Niña forhold minst inn i februar.

Først i månedene februar til april vil de kjølige forholdene i Stillehavet vise seg klarest i UAHs globale temperaturobservasjoner.

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