3. February 2023

Hvor skråsikre kunne forskerne egentlig være om klimaendringene før 90-tallet?

 

Hva kunne disse herrene ved Meteorologisk institutt si med sikkerhet om de forestående klimaendringene da de inspiserte denne topp moderne datamaskinen i 1961?

Hva kunne disse herrene ved Meteorologisk institutt si med sikkerhet om de forestående klimaendringene da de inspiserte denne topp moderne datamaskinen i 1961? (Foto: NTB)

Hvor skråsikre kunne forskerne egentlig være om klimaendringene før 90-tallet?

DEBATT: Lars Sandved Dalen overdriver datidens kunnskapsgrunnlag, skriver innsenderne.

Trond IversenPROFESSOR EMERITUS, METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT, UNIVERSITETET I OSLO

Anton EliassenTIDL. DIREKTØR FOR METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT OG PROFESSOR VED UNIVERSITETET I OSLO

Øystein HovTIDL. FORSKNINGSDIREKTØR METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT OG PROFESSOR VED UNIVERSITETET I OSLO

Søndag 31. januar 2021 – 11:37

Forskning.no publiserte 11. januar 2021 artikkelen «Hvorfor varslet ikke norske forskere om klimaendringene tidligere?» basert på studien Forsiktige forskere, engasjerte journalister av Lars Sandved Dalen om pressestoff om drivhuseffekten i tre norske riksaviser 1959-1988.

En stor andel av pressestoffet Dalen fant var ikke skrevet av forskere, og mens journalister karakteriseres som «modigere» i formidlingen, var forskere opptatt av usikkerheter eller avviste menneskeskapte klimaendringer. Dalen siteres på at forskernes tvil og uenighet har forsinket allmennhetens erkjennelse av klimaendringene, og at oppfatningene i dag ikke først og fremst er forskernes fortjeneste.

Ikke grunnlag for skråsikkerhet

Dalen overdriver datidens kunnskapsgrunnlag og er trolig farget av det vi vet nå. Det var ikke faglig grunnlag for å avvise tanken om menneskeskapte klimaendringer, men det var heller ikke grunnlag for skråsikkerhet. I de siste 2-3 tiår har imidlertid norske klimaforskere bidratt betydelig til dagens allmenne forståelse.

ANNONSE

Naturvitenskap utvikles når rådende sannheter utfordres, og det er tvil om tolkninger og hypoteser. Journalister vil ofte uttale seg uten forbehold, men nyheter og beslutningsgrunnlag blir dårligere om vitenskapelig tvil underslås. Nye funn vil stadig måtte avkreftes av enda nyere, med allmenn forvirring som resultat. I ettertid er de gale hypotesene som regel glemt.

Avkjøling etter andre verdenskrig

Hva kunne formidles om klimaendringer 1959-1988?

For 30-60 år var det knapt noen norske forskere som arbeidet med å utvikle forståelse med sikte på å beregne globale klimaendringer. Det var i god tid før vitenskapens status ble sammenstilt av FNs Klimapanel (IPCC), og kunnskapsgrunnlaget for formidling var mangelfullt.

Observasjonsgrunnlaget for global oppvarming antydet snarere en langsom avkjøling de første tretti år etter andre verdenskrig. At avkjølingen kunne skyldes svovelforurensing ble først beregnet på 90-tallet. På 80-tallet begynte temperaturen å øke ut over det som var observert tidlig i århundret (FNs klimapanel, 1990 og 1992), men ikke før rundt årtusenskiftet kunne man med en viss grad av sikkerhet registrere global oppvarming utover tilfeldig variasjon.

Drivhuseffekten var gammel kunnskap

ANNONSE

Økende mengder CO2 i atmosfæren var observert ved Mauna Loa, Hawaii, og man visste en del om andre gasser som bidrar til varmestråling. At drivhuseffekten var avgjørende for temperaturforholdene på jordoverflata var gammel kunnskap, men vitenskapen bak datidens beregninger av hvor mye varmere kloden kunne bli av økt drivhuseffekt var svak.

Modellene beregnet f. eks. ikke hvor mye varme som fraktes ned i dyphavet. Så sent som på 90-tallet måtte modellenes beregning av varmetransport i havet korrigeres kunstig for å unngå uakseptable feil i beregningene av det observerte klima. Skyenes varmeregulerende rolle ved økt drivhuseffekt er ennå dårlig forstått.

Norske klimaforskere har bidratt betydelig til den allmenne forståelsen av globale klimaendringer vi har i dag.

.

Forståelsen av karbonets kretsløp var også ufullstendig. Først i FNs klimapanels rapport fra 2013 var det med modellresultater basert på et fullstendig karbonkretsløp. I den neste rapporten som kommer i april 2021 beregnes for første gang vegetasjon og isbreer dynamisk i noen modeller.

Naturlig at journalister skrev tross tvil

Selv om forskere den gang med rette uttrykte tvil, var det naturlig at journalister skrev om muligheter for klimaendringer mot år 2000. En tidlig beregning fra 1972 antydet en slik global oppvarming på 0.6 grader celsius. Charney-rapporten fra et ad hoc-seminar i 1979 viste en beregnet global oppvarming etter fordoblet CO2 på mellom 1,5 grader og 4,5 grader, med 3 grader som mest sannsynlig.

Allikevel kan det hevdes at det er et større tankekors at forskeren James Hansen varslet den amerikanske kongresshøringen så klart i 1988, enn at mange andre forskere var tilbakeholdende. Men at enkelte kunne avvise menneskeskapte klimaendringer er vanskelig å forstå.

Hva var norske forskere opptatt av den gang?

Norske atmosfære- og havforskere på 1960-70-80-tallet arbeidet med miljøproblematikk som var dagsaktuelle for Norge og Europa, med betydelig formidling nasjonalt og internasjonalt. Dette handlet mest om lokale og regionale forurensninger av luft og vann. Globale klimaendringer var til sammenligning både usikre og med konsekvenser som neppe ville merkes før om flere tiår.

Ozonlagsproblematikken var imidlertid global, og den norske forskningen ble tidlig knyttet til spørsmålet om klimaendringer. Ivar Isaksen ved UiO er behørig nevnt i Dalens studie, men Øystein Hov og andre formidlet også om dette, bl.a. i en kronikk i Aftenposten i 1984.

Norge hadde flere verdensledende forskere innen meteorologi og oseanografi etter Vilhelm Bjerknes, med anvendelser for værvarsling og forvaltning av ressurser. Relevansen for globale klimaendringer er nå åpenbar, men den gang var det ikke mulig eller klart behov for å utvikle dette til bedre beregninger av globalt klima.

Viktig forskning og formidling etter 90-tallet

Og hva er situasjonen nå?

Vi nevner her viktige eksempler på norsk klimaforskning og formidling siden 1990-tallet. Perioden var ikke omfattet av Dalens studie. Med økte bevilgninger til klimaforskning, bl. a. gjennom Norges allmennvitenskapelige forskningsråd (før 1993, red. anm.) og Norges forskningsråd, kom eksisterende kompetanse fra ulike fagfelt raskt til nytte. Utdanning av mange klimaforskere, mer regnekraft, bedre prosessforståelse og lengre observasjonsrekker har gitt et nytt paradigme for forskning og formidling. Siden årtusenskiftet har formidlingen et stadig bedre vitenskapelig grunnlag for mindre tvil og usikkerhet.

Cicero ble grunnlagt i 1990 som et flerfaglig institutt, inklusive naturvitenskap. De har mandat til å formidle klimaforskning og er særdeles aktive. I 2000 ble Bjerknessenteret stiftet som Senter for fremragende forskning. De er et fyrtårn for norsk klimaforskning og flere av forskerne er aktive formidlere.

RegClim ble et nasjonalt koordinert klimaprosjekt i 1997 som siden 2006 er videreført i andre koordinerte prosjekter. Det samarbeidet med tilsvarende svenske og danske prosjekter og med internasjonalt ledende klimasentre. Forskerne formidlet i tidsskriftet «Cicerone» (nå «Klima») med 6 utgivelser årlig, i tre fagbrosjyrer med opplag 10.000, to pressekonferanser, og utallige foredrag, intervjuer og artikler i presse og media. De første publiserte resultatene førte til innslag i NRK Dagsrevyen (11. mai 2000), intervjuer i NRK TV Nyhetsmorgen og talkshow (Skavlan), mange avisartikler og radio-intervjuer, og ble referert i en kronikk av Miljøvernministeren og i Stortingets spørretime.

Norske klimaforskere har bidratt betydelig

Med Bergen Climate Model var Bjerknessenteret de første i Norden som leverte globale beregninger til FNs klimapanels rapport AR4 i 2007. Siden har de sammen med Meteorologisk institutt, Universitetet i Oslo, Universitetet i Bergen og forskningsinstituttet NORCE bygget jordsystemmodellen NorESM som bidro til FNs klimapanels AR5-rapport i 2013, og nå til den forestående rapporten i april. Modellen fremheves i internasjonale evalueringer som viktig for norsk klimaforskning.

Meteorologisk institutt analyserer observerte og modellberegnede klimadata, og forskerne har lenge vært aktive formidlere. Siden 2008 har de ledet samarbeidet Norsk klimaservicesenter som publiserer synteserapporter og råd til myndigheter og allmennhet.

Lars Sandved Dalens studie har gitt oss en fin mulighet til å reflektere over forskeres bidrag til den allmenne opplysning om fagfelt som kan ha betydelige konsekvenser for folk. Menneskeskapte klimaendringer er et eksempel der både verdens kunnskap og den norske forskningsinnsatsen har økt voldsomt siden slutten av 1990-tallet. Norske klimaforskere har bidratt betydelig til den allmenne forståelsen av globale klimaendringer vi har i dag. Det vitenskapelige grunnlaget 1959-88 ga verken grunnlag for å underslå betydelig usikkerhet eller å avvise mulighetene for menneskeskapt global oppvarming.

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