https://resett.no/2021/09/19/kraftig-vekst-i-sjoisen-rundt-antarktis/
Kraftig vekst i sjøisen rundt Antarktis
Etter et dramatisk fall i utbredelsen av sjøis rundt Antarktis i 2016-2017 vokser isen gradvis tilbake til tidligere nivåer.
Ferske data fra US National Ice Centre viser at utbredelsen i august var den fjerde største for måneden siden satellittmålingene startet i 1978.
Sjøis påvirker ikke havnivået, men utbredelsen er ofte en indikator på vær, klima og sykliske hendelser. I Antarktis er sjøisen viktig for temperaturen i atmosfæren, havsirkulasjonen og økosystemet i regionen. Mindre sjøis vil over tid kunne bidra til at varme fra havet overføres til den betydelig kaldere atmosfæren. Livssyklusene til alger, plankton og krill påvirkes av syklusene til sjøisen.
Les også: Har stått i stormen før – nå er Hans Borge blitt daglig leder i Klimarealistene (+)
Det vakte derfor oppsikt når den jevne veksten i sjøisen siden 1978 ble avbrutt av et voldsomt fall mot slutten av 2016 og gjennom den australske sommeren i 2017. På det meste forsvant opptil 80.000 km2 med sjøis om dagen og det oppsto åpne råker på isen i Weddell-havet.
Hovedstrømsmediene var raskt ute med å knytte hendelsen til menneskeskapte klimaendringer. På Yr.no brakte NRK-journalist Astrid Rommetveit en artikkel hvor hendelsen ble presentert som et «vippepunkt» i den globale oppvarmingen. Flere andre medier fulgte opp, og Dagbladet rapporterte hendelsen som «Forskernes skrekkfunn i Antarktis».
Siden hendelsen påvirket den langsiktige trenden i dataene, har mediene i de etterfølgende årene også fortsatt å rapportere hendelsen som et negativt trendskifte. NRK Urix kunne i 2019 melde at «sjøisen i Antarktis smelter i rekordfart».
Les også: Velkommen til kunnskap og fornuft – stopp den menneskeskapte klimakrisen (+)
Flere studier viser imidlertid at hendelsen i 2016-2017 var et resultat av en sjelden kombinasjon av værhendelser, også beskrevet av forskere som «Den perfekte stormen». Allerede i juni 2017 publiserte Turner et al. ved British Antarctic Survey en studie i Geophysical Research Letters som viste at en sjelden serie med stormer brakte forbigående, men varme luftmasser etter La Niño ned til Antarktis. Stormene bidro til å smelte- og bryte opp isen.
To måneder senere publiserte Stuecker et al (2017) ved University of Washington en studie som i tillegg viste hvordan de unormale værhendelsene svekket luftstrømmene over Antarktis. Det førte til at sjøisen ikke ble skjøvet fra land slik at ny sjøis kunne dannes på innsiden.
I 2020 kom en ny studie fra Turner et al. ved British Antarctic Survey som sammenfattet hendelsene i 2016/2017 og hvordan det har påvirket økosystemene og isutbredelsen i ettertid. Studien viser at sjøisen vokser fra år til år og trolig er på vei tilbake til nivåene før 2016.
Det har derfor vært spenning knyttet til hva de etterfølgende observasjonene vil vise, og satellittdataene til US National Ice Center viser nå at isutbredelsen – en snau måned før toppen nås i det australske vinterhalvåret 2021, er den fjerde høyeste siden målingene startet i 1978, drøyt 18,2 millioner km2 eller 2,4 ganger størrelsen til Australia.
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