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Global temperatur april 2021
- mai 2, 2021
- 16:58
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Roy Spencer, Temperatur
Vi har temperaturdata for april fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for april er med -0,05 o C nær uendret fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer hvordan man beregner klimaet. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. April 2020 er med (-0,05 o C) nær uendret fra forrige måneds (-0,01 o C).
Med aprildataene har det meste av effekten fra vinterens La Niña forplantet seg til troposfæren, ifølge Dr. Spencer.
- Nordlige halvkule noe ned til 0,05 o C, fra 0,12 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule nær uendret med – 0,15 o C, fra – 0,14 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene nær uendret med – 0,28 o C, fra – 0,29 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 klart ned til -0,02 o C, fra 0,59 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis klart opp, til 0,02 o C, fra – 0,78 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia kraftig opp til 0,29 o C, fra – 0,79 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære, men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.
NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (26. april) «La Niña» forhold på nordlige halvkule, mens det for tropene er nøytrale forhold allerede nå.
For sommeren (mai til juli) er det 80 % sannsynlig med nøytrale forhold, mens modellene viser en retur til La Niña til senhøsten eller kommende vinter).
Det kan altså bli mer av de samme temperaturfallene som vi har sett denne vinteren.
Svak solaktivitet gir ustabilt vær
Både solfysikere og meteorologer har lenge varslet at vi for tiden har en jetstrøm over Arktis, som bukter seg mye mer i nord-syd retning enn det som er vanlig når man har en sterkere solaktivitet. Dette kan føre til uvanlig varme i Arktis, mens det kan bli tilsvarende kaldere lengre syd. April måned brakte uvanlig kulde til Frankrike, med katastrofale konsekvenser for fruktdyrkere og årets vinavling.
Ved starten av mai faller det uvanlig mye snø i fjellstrøkene i Norge, og i store deler av Russland, hvor det nå er uvanlig kaldt så langt syd som på Krim-halvøya. Kraftig med snø er det også i Syd-Korea, og i Syd-Afrika.
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