Fra Resett.no:
Stor økning i klimarelaterte miljøkatastrofer, sier FN og NTB. Men stemmer det?

Natt til tirsdag dumper det en NTB-sak inn i postkassen til Resett. «FN: Stor økning i klimarelaterte katastrofer siden år 2000». Jeg bestemte meg for å se nærmere på den.
La meg erklære at det selvfølgelig forekommer klimaendringer. Det har det alltid gjort. At det også har blitt noe varmere, omtrent 1 grad siden slutten av 1800-tallet, er nok også tilfellet selv om det ikke er noen lett oppgave å måle gjennomsnittstemperaturen på kloden, og måleinstrumentene var ikke særlig presise før. Noen steder er endringene litt større, kanskje opp mot 2 grader, andre steder mindre.
Hvor mye av endringene som skyldes økte mengder CO2 i atmosfæren, er uvisst, for temperaturen har vært høyere både i middelalderen og i perioder for flere tusen år siden da CO2 nivåene var under 280 ppm, mens de er ca 410 ppm nå. Men at CO2 er en drivhusgass er et faktum, så noen innvirkning på temperaturen fra fossile brennstoff synes rimelig.
Men samtidig har det oppstått en hel industri av alarmister som har gjort det til sitt levebrød og/eller livsstil å kun fokusere på menneskenes bidrag gjennom CO2, samt å spå de verste konsekvenser hvis vi ikke gjør noe for å redusere bruken av kull, olje og gass. Det har derfor blitt slik at vi ikke kan stole på noe av det som kommer fra FN, fra angivelige klimaforskere eller fra de etablerte mediene. Det er trist.
Jeg påstår ikke at alt som kommer ut er feil, men det er så mye manipulert at i det minste jeg har mistet tiltroen til nærmest alt som kommer. Jeg stoler ikke på det før jeg har sjekket selv. Og det har vi da ikke alltid tid til.
Men vi tok oss tid til akkurat denne artikkelen, fordi jeg kom i hu en artikkel skrevet i Aftenposten i oktober 2019 av Bjart Holtsmark fra Statistisk sentralbyrå, som så vidt jeg kunne bedømme etter å ha lest NTB-saken motsa FN-rapporten og endog brukte det samme underliggende tallmateriale. Hvordan kunne Holtsmark ha tatt så feil!
I FN-rapporten, som NTB lagde sin artikkel på, var det ikke måte på hvor ille det var blitt. I ingressen til NTB sto det at «Det har blitt registrert en stor økning i klimarelaterte miljøkatastrofer de siste 20 årene sammenlignet med de to foregående tiårene, ifølge en FN-studie.»
Studien skulle ha kommet fra FNs kontor for kriserisikoreduksjon (UNDRR).
– Vi er ødeleggende med vilje. Det er den eneste konklusjonen man kan komme til når man går gjennom katastrofene som har skjedd over de siste 20 årene, sier UNDRR-sjef Mami Mizutori.
Og NTB siterer ham videre:
– Oddsen går mot oss når vi ikke handler ut fra forskning og advarsler om å investere i forebygging, tilpasse oss til klimaendringer og redusere risiko i forbindelse med katastrofer.
NTB bruker videre overskriftene «Kan se mørkt ut» og «Flom rammer mange» nedover i artikkelen.
– Hvis økningen i ekstremvær fortsetter over de neste 20 årene, ser framtiden til menneskeheten svært mørk ut, sier Debarati Guha-Sapir, som leder det belgiske forskningsinstituttet CRED, til nyhetsbyrået DPA.
FN brukte i studien en database som CRED-instituttet har utviklet, skriver NTB.
Men hva har folk dødd av?
Selv før jeg har konsultert Holtsmarks artikkel var det en opplysning som reiste noen alarmbjeller. For var ikke dette en alarmerende artikkel om klimaendringer? Hvorfor var det da slik at de to største naturkatastrofene som FN hadde regnet inn i dødstallene, vel knapt hadde noe som helst med klimaet å gjøre? Som NTB skrev:
«Tsunamien i Sørøst-Asia i 2004, som kostet 230.000 mennesker livet, syklonen Nargis i Myanmar i 2008 som førte med seg 140.000 dødsfall og jordskjelvet i Haiti i 2010, der 220.000 ble drept, er de alvorligste katastrofene de siste 20 årene.»
Tsunamien i 2004 og jordskjelvet i Haiti, som til sammen tok livet av 450.000 mennesker kan vel knapt ha noe med menneskelige utslipp av CO2 å gjøre. Og av de til sammen 1,23 millioner menneskene som døde av naturkatastrofer mellom 2000-2019 utgjorde disse to hendelsene, som ikke hadde noe med klimaet å gjøre, hele 37 prosent. Legger vi til jordskjelvene i Pakistan i 2005 og i Kina i 2008, kommer vi opp i 680.000 døde i disse ikke-værerelaterte hendelsene, og det er 55 prosent av det totale antallet døde gjennom hele perioden!
Les også: Enda mer propaganda fra NRK om klimaet
NTB skriver ingenting om hvor mange som døde fra 1980-1999, men det står i FN-rapporten. Og det tallet er på 1,19 millioner mennesker, altså bare 40.000 færre enn i de to tiårene etter, hvor altså 680.000 var drept av tsunami og jordskjelv.
Hvor var det altså blitt av den «store økningen» og hva var grunnlaget for de alarmistiske spådommene fra FN-folk og forskere om at:
«Vi er ødeleggende med vilje,» og «oddsen går mot oss,» og «Hvis økningen i ekstremvær fortsetter over de neste 20 årene, ser framtiden til menneskeheten svært mørk ut.»
FN baserte seg altså på en database som CRED-instituttet har utviklet. La oss konsultere Holtmark, som kom til en helt annen konklusjon basert på samme database.
«Aldri har færre omkommet i naturkatastrofer,» var tittelen på Holtmarks artikkel i Aftenposten. Og videre i ingressen skrev han «Statistikk fra de siste 120 årene viser at stadig færre omkommer i værrelaterte naturkatastrofer. I inneværende tiår er tallene så langt spesielt lave.»
Holtsmark viser til CRED-instituttets database som har tall tilbake til 1900. Han mener fortiden i hovedsak underrapporterte dødsfall, men trenden er likevel slående. I perioden 1920–70 var det ifølge CRED-statistikken i gjennomsnitt 330.000 omkomne i værrelaterte hendelser pr. år, skriver han. Men fra 1970 til 2010 var dette falt til 40.000 per år. Og spesielt lavt er det for perioden 2010 til 2018, da det kun var 13.312 omkomne i snitt.
Og det som skyver på tallene i perioden 2000-2010 er jordskjelv. Som Holtsmark skriver:
«I dette tiåret var det også uvanlig mange store jordskjelv, med skjelvet på Haiti i januar 2010 som den nest verste jordskjelvkatastrofen i nyere tid. Jordskjelvene i Kina og Pakistan i henholdsvis 2008 og 2005 og den jordskjelvfremkalte tsunamien utenfor Indonesia i 2004 krevde tilsammen minst 680.000 menneskeliv.»
Hvor tendensiøs denne FN-rapporter er, som NTB siterer fra, kommer frem i de oversiktene Holtsmark og Aftenposten har laget om saken. For hvordan ser det ut når statistikken føres tilbake til 1900 og den også brytes ned i værrelaterte hendelser og andre naturkatastrofer?
Jo, da ser det slik ut:
Artikkelen fortsetter.

Her ser vi at det siste tiåret viser det laveste antallet døde i naturkatastrofer i noe tiår siden 1900, og at den kombinerte økningen fra 2000 i sin helhet skyldes uvanlig mange dødelige jordskjelv og vulkaner fra 2000-2010. Altså katastrofer som ikke har noe med klimaet å gjøre. Og hvorfor rapporterte ikke FN tilbake til 1900? Skal vi tro at det er «tilfeldig» at FN startet ved år 1980?
Og hva så med antallet døde sett i forhold til antallet mennesker som lever. Er det virkelig grunn for de dystre spådommene om at fremtiden «ser mørk ut» hvis det angivelige «ekstremværet» fortsetter?
Igjen har Holtsmark gjort en god jobb. Her tallene for antallet døde per million mennesker fra «værrelaterte hendelser»:
Artikkelen fortsetter.

Det disse tallene brutt ned på værrelaterte hendelser viser, er det stikk motsatte av det FN og NTB prøver å formidle. Antallet døde går ned, selv fra det tendesiøse referansetidspunkten 1980-1999. Fra 13-6-6-2 døde per millioner i hvert tiår, med en kraftig reduksjon de siste ti år.
FNs ser ut til å kamuflere sin alarmistiske overskrift med å legge frem tall som angivelig viser en økning i antallet klimarelaterte hendelser. Som NTB skriver:
«De siste 20 årene har 6.700 klimarelaterte miljøkatastrofer – som oversvømmelser, tørker, stormer og skogbranner – blitt registrert, fastslår FNs kontor for kriserisikoreduksjon (UNDRR). (…) I perioden 1980–1999 ble det til sammenligning registrert 3.700 klimarelaterte katastrofer som førte med seg dødsfall og ødeleggelse. Denne økningen er drevet av katastrofer som knyttes til klimaendringer, ifølge FN.»
Men hvordan har disse katastrofene blitt registrert? Kan det simpelthen være at mer er registert de siste tiårene fordi flere er ansatt for å gjøre det og for å «lete etter katastrofer å registere». For økningen i hendelser har så visst ikke latt seg måle på antallet døde, for det har sunket i perioden. Er det ikke påfallende at det har blitt mange flere klimarelaterte hendelser, men færre døde?
«Dramatisk økning i klimakatastrofer de siste 20 år», er overskriften til FNs kontor for kriserisikoreduksjon (UNDRR) i sin rapportering. NTB har kjøpt innholdet med hud og hår. Samtidig er det den mest skandaløse og tendensiøse rapporten jeg har sett på lang tid. Og den kommer fra FN, som vi nordmenn har blitt innprentet er en slik kraft for det gode i verden.
FN beviser med denne rapporten at de hengir seg til skamløs propaganda. Jeg synes det er trist at vi ikke kan stole på forskere, FN, NGO-er og media lenger om et så viktig felt som klimaendringer og deres konsekvenser. Folk lever i frykt, enorme pengesummer overføres til ennå ikke lønnsomme «grønne» prosjekter, og så er det basert i stor grad på villedende statistikk og ren skremselspropaganda.
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