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Villsporene i klimadebatten. November 24, 2021. Geir Aaslid

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/11/24/villsporene-i-klimadebatten/

Villsporene i klimadebatten

IPCC-leiren etablerte tidlig premissene for klimadebatten. Alle som skal delta er nødt til å akseptere disse og denne gjetingen av debattantene har kommet så langt at selv redaktørstyrte medier stempler alle avvik som klimafornektelse. Underforstått, stiller man spørsmål ved premissene er man spedalske eller dissidenter som er enda ondere enn nazistene. Vi analyserer her hvor tvilsomme premissene faktisk er.

Veien til helvete og intensjonene

Som alltid før er også klimaveien til helvete brolagt med de aller beste intensjoner. Og litt til, for alle som nøler på veien hindrer en selvoppnevnt elite i å lede lemenflokken videre dit man skal for å redde kloden vår fra en menneskeskapt dommedag. Mediene som før har vært vaktbikkja mot kleptokratiske særinteresser og bedrageri, medvirker nå til kleptokrati og bedrageri. Neste generasjon av advokater og dommere vil få den interessante oppgaven å finne ut av om noen kan gjøres strafferettslig ansvarlig for det som har foregått.

Vendepunktet

I den første tiden innbilte IPCC-leiren seg at de kunne vinne klimadebatten, først med en serie politiske avtaler (Kyoto og FNs klimarammeverk), og deretter – tro det eller ei – ved å arrangere og vinne en saklig klimadebatt med seriøs møteledelse.

Debatten fant sted i USA, 14.mars 2007, med temaet «Er global oppvarming en krise». Publikum svarte ja, nei eller vet ikke på dette spørsmålet i meningsmålinger både før og etter debatten. Andelen som svarte nei økte etterpå fra 30% til 46%, mens ja-svar gikk fra 57% til 42%.
Debattantene var Michael Crichton, og professorene Richard Lindzen (MIT), og Philip Stott (University of London), og for IPCC-leiren Brenda Ekwurzel (Union of Concerned Scientists), Gavin Schmidt (GISS), og Professor Richard Somerville (Scripps Institution of Oceanography).

Etter dette mistet IPCC-leiren all interesse for klimadebatt og det ble bestemt at debatten var over. Det var konsensus, og premissene ble spikret for hvem som heretter fikk lov å ytre seg i vestlige land. Klimaindustriens nasjonale ledere hadde oppgaven å ensrette medier og politikere, støttet av FN-byråkratiet. For Norge var dette Bjerknessenteret i Bergen og Institutt for Klimapolitikk i Oslo, som nettopp hadde skiftet navn til Cicero for lettere å skjule at de ansatte arbeidet med klimapolitikk.

Klimaensrettingen i vestlige land fulgte gamle mønstre.

Trosbekjennelsen

De mange spirituelt engasjerte aktivistene sørget raskt for at det ble etablert en trosbekjennelse, som sørget for å stemple avvikerne. Alle ytringer i klimadebatten må innledes med trosbekjennelsen. Den har i klimaforskningen et ekstra formål, hvis man ønsker å argumentere rasjonelt eller med nyansering, som forskerens vern mot beskyldningen klimafornekter. Her er de tre sentrale pillarene i trosbekjennelsen:

  • Ja, det eksisterer menneskeskapte klimaendringer og de kan føre til global oppvarming.
  • Ja, menneskeheten har et klimaproblem, og det må løses.
  • Ja, drivhusgassene i atmosfæren gjør at kloden har en høyere global temperatur.

Merk at alt dette er uproblematisk og ukontroversielt så lenge detaljene er utelatt og tallverdiene er udefinerte. Ingen seriøse aktører er uenige om de tre punktene over.

Premissenes bakteppe

FNs klimapanel (IPCC) er et mellomstatlige panel, et politisk FN-organ som har politiske prosesser og tar politiske beslutninger (se Klimanytt 167). Fra starten var det et sterkt naturvitenskapelig fundament i arbeidsgruppe 1, men IPCC-mandatet forutsatte også, for første gang i menneskehetens historie, at det eksisterte et menneskeskapt klimaproblem. Her var det begrenset med plass for alle som mente klimaendringer i hovedsak var naturlige og at klimapolitikken måtte bygges på vitenskap, men disse hadde fra 1990 styringen i IPCCs WG1.

Farvel til naturvitenskapen i 1996

Fundamentet av vitenskap førte raskt til stor irritasjon blant vestlige politikere som hadde klimakrisen som eget politisk ståsted, og landenes forvaltning som administrerte politikernes behov for en klimakrise som en sikker karrierevei, mislikte også all vitenskapen. Noe av grunnen finner vi i rapporten WG1 fra 1990:

«The enhanced greenhouse effect has not yet been detected unequivocally in the observational record.» og «The fact that we have not yet detected the enhanced greenhouse effect leads to the question when is this likely to occur?»

IPCC 1990:Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 212 pp.

Dette førte til etablering av nasjonale kvasi-forskergrupper, som forutsatte at det eksisterte et klimaproblem, og hadde fokus på å utvike klimamodeller som skulle fastslå når mennests klimapåvirkning ble sterk nok til å være observerbar i atmosfæren. Leser man videre etter side 212 i lenken over, ser man at det første estimatet for når dette ville skje, ville være i 2040-årene forutsatt at den klare globale oppvarmingen fra ca 1977 fortsatte.

Ingen av de viktigste klimapolitikerne på 1990-tallet var villige til å vente så lenge på naturen. Eller effekten av våre utslipp. Behovet var en klimakrise der og da, og ikke mye senere etter at egen karriere var over. IPCC-leder Houghton fryktet at politikerne ville gå videre alene, helt uten naturvitenskapen i WG1. Han valgte å gi etter.

IPCC sa i 1996 farvel til vitenskapen etter politisk press fra USA (se Klimanytt 264, eller mer detaljert tekst her). Heretter kunne man skjelne menneskets påvirkning – inni en klimamodell, som fabulerte i at våre utslipp ville vise seg i en varmeboble i 10-12 km høyde i troposfæren ved ekvator.

Dette ble budskapet i alle år etter dette – hvor det var utelatt i alle medier at vår påvirkning bare eksisterte inni en modell, og ikke i vår virkelige verden. Det ble raskt umulig å komme til orde med opplysningen om at denne varmeboblen ikke eksisterer ute i atmosfæren. Fra nå av måtte forskerne skrive om alt innhold i WG1 som ikke stemte med politikernes vedtatte innhold i sammedragene for politikerne. Forskerne selv mener når de blir presset av kritiske spørsmål, at dette bare er nødvendig korrekturlesning.

Farvel til global oppvarming

Siden klimaproblemet var vedtatt menneskeskapt, så var det ingen i IPCC-leiren som kunne tenke seg muligheten av at oppvarmingen stanset så lenge våre utslipp økte. De så da helt bort ifra «The Grand Hiatus», den store varmepausen fra 1941 til 1976. Men den klare oppvarmingen stanset, som alle nå vet, før tusenårsskiftet. Siden stansen ikke passet seg for bukkene som passet havresekken, kom ikke innrømmelsen av dette før i 2013-rapporten – ny observert trend er på 0,06 grader pr tiår, altså knappe 0,5 grader fra nå til år 2100.

Ikke mye å skremme med altså, spesielt siden den nye trenden ikke er statistisk signifikant, den kan like godt være støy i observasjonene. Det er derfor ikke lov for en klimaforsker å diskutere observert temperaturtrend, og egeninteressen for klimaforskere tilsier at man snakker om alt annet.

Den første indikasjonen på at oppvarmingen var slutt, kom ved at budskapet endret seg, fra kamp mot global oppvarming, til kamp mot klimaendringer. Siden klima alltid endrer seg som et kaotisk, ikke-lineært og uforutsigbart fenomen i et koblet hav-og-atmosfære-system, kunne man heretter skremme med alle endringer i været. Dette ble raskt et eldorado for klimajournalistene.

Klimaforskerens ufeilbarlighet

Det første premisset er at du må være klimaforsker for å kunne uttale deg om klima. Enhver kritikk settes sjakk matt med påstanden at du ikke er klimaforsker, som da er definert som at du deltar i IPCC-prosessene, med holdningen at alt som står i IPCC-rapportene er korrekt. Og nær ufeilbarlig, uansett hvilket naturfaglig professorat kritikeren innehar. Ingen kritiker av IPCC er derfor anerkjent som klimaforsker. Dette er også kjent som konsensuspremisset, et logisk villspor kjent siden de greske filosofene.

Klimapolitikken vi ser i mediene formidles som konsensusforskning til folk flest via SPM – Sammendrag for beslutningstagere, og enhver påpekning fra redelige forskere av at SPM avviker fra eller motsier innholdet i WG1-rapportene medfører stempling, utkastelse fra klimaforskerlauget og sjikane over tiår. (Se tilfellet Roger Pielke Jr.)

Roger Pielke jr er klimaforskeren som ble ekskludert fra klimaforskerlauget. Grunn: for mye redelighet.

En klimaforsker ser på Parisavtalen som en politisk avtale, hvor forskerens oppgave er å legitimere politikken. En klimapolitiker ser på Parisavtalen som en vitenskapelig avtale der politikerne handler etter råd fra forskerne. Begge grupper later som om de ikke vet at IPCC er et politisk organ som har politiske prosesser og tar politiske beslutninger (se Klimanytt 167).

Dermed har begge parter ryggen fri om noe skulle feile, og dolkene er klare til bruk ved ethvert avvik som truer leirens lukrative eksistens. Selv de troende er ikke trygge. Jfr Erik Solheims raske sorti som omreisende FN-profet for Klima.

Den forbudte klimagass

Neste premiss er at vår CO2 styrer klima, og at den dominerende drivhusgassen vanndamp (med skyer) som står for 90-95 % av drivhuseffekten kun opptrer som en passiv forsterker av CO2-effekten. Dette med at vanndampen kan utelates og at CO2 som utgjør 0,04 % av atmosfæren styrer temperaturen der, er å påstå at halen logrer med bikkja. At man mener dette er nå en forutsetning for å få ytre seg om klima i redaktørstyrte medier. Men det er observert at vanndamp virker dempende på effekten av mer CO2.

Dette forbudspremisset har mange flere elementer, illustrasjonen viser aktøren som ifølge IPCCs 2013-rapport stod for inntil 50 % av oppvarmingen etter 1950, mens den i 2021-rapporten ikke har hatt merkbar betydning siden førindustriell tid. Ekskludert fra deltagelse i IPCCs prosesser er også alle solfysikere, biologer, geologer og geokjemikere, med mindre de kan misbrukes til å legitimere at alt er vår skyld.

Ufeilbarlige modeller

Modellene er IPCC-leirens aller svakeste punkt – de er derfor opphøyd til å være ufeilbarlige.

Modellene er for varme, bruker politiske projeksjoner istedet for vitenskapelige prognoser, bruker politisert sikkerhet istedet for et statistisk konfidensintervall, og de er helt ubrukelige til å kunne forutsi noe om framtidig klima. For å få lov å debattere klima, må du akseptere modellene og scenariene modellene beskriver, til tross for at IPCC selv skriver hvordan modellene feiler:

«For perioden fra 1998 til 2012, viser 111 av 114 tilgjengelige modellsimuleringer av klimaet en oppvarmingstrend som er større enn observasjonene»

IPCC Synteserapport 2014, side 41

En Klimaforsker vil alltid hevde at modellene stemmer med observasjonene, på samme vis som presten i kirken vil hevde at Gud eksisterer. Sjeldnere vil en presset klimaforsker anta at at observasjoner kan være feil fordi det er noe man ikke har observert, og dette noe vil senere vise at modellene er korrekte. I all annen vitenskap forkastes hypotesen når observasjoner viser at den er feil.
Andre forskere tilfører observasjonsdataene administrativ menneskeskapt oppvarming, slik at observasjonene passer bedre til modellene og alt dette har til nå lurt mediene trill rundt.

Utslippskutt og rasjonalitet

Det styrende premiss for tiltak i klimadebatten er at alt må dreie seg om å kutte i våre utslipp. Det spiller ingen rolle at det meste av menneskeheten øker sine utslipp, og tillater man seg å stille rasjonelle spørsmål:

  • Rundt størrelsen av våre utslipp i forhold til naturens egne
  • Rundt samtidig observert oppvarming på Mars og Jupiters måner
  • Rundt atmosfærens optimale innhold av CO2
  • Rundt grunnlaget for fornybarpolitikken

Så forstår man raskt at sterke krefter i IPCC-leiren bevisst har skapt et fryktens klima hvor rasjonell debatt er utelukket og hvor det derfor ikke er mulig å etablere en rasjonell klima- eller energipolitikk i vestlige land.

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