by
De varme 1930-årene er manipulert bort fra debatten
- mai 8, 2018
- 23:13
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Aftenposten, Dagbladet, Klimanytt, Temperatur
Klimanytt 224, forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad
De varme 1930-årene var blitt et begrep som generelt ble omtalt som klimaforbedring. Den lille istid med sine klimaproblemer hadde virkelig sluppet taket. Oppvarmingen var så markant at da det ble kaldere i 1945–75 var det i 1960–70-årene offentlig frykt for en ny istid.
Varmeperioden i 1930-årene er veldokumentert på alle bauer og kanter. Ut over den langsomme oppvarmingen fra den kaldeste delen av Den lille istid (1660–1720) foreligger det god dokumentasjon på at den er en del av en ca 60-års syklus med 30-årige varme og kalde perioder slik IPCCs benyttede temperaturserie HadCRU også viser. Med særlig markant oppvarming i 20 år gjennom 1860–80, 1920–40 og nå fra 1980–2000. I et BBC-intervju i 2010 beskrev lederen for HadCRU, professor Phil Jones de tre oppvarmingsperioder som tilnærmet identiske. Fauerskov Nielsen et al. (2012) har funnet liknende syklus 8000 år tilbake i Arktis.
Vi har på vår nettside og i foredrag ofte omtalt oppvarmingsperioden 1920–40. Da var forholdene i Arktis omtrent like varme som nå ifølge HadCRU i 2007 (KN 123), Grønland med bl.a. Nuuk (KN 128), isen i Arktis (KN 53, 74, 82, 121) og temperaturene omtalt i KN 217 og KN 221. Atlanterhavstrømmens betydning var velkjent og omtalt i bl.a. rapporten til Fiskeridepartementet i 1990 (KN 217).
Det var omtrent like lite is i området Grønland til Novaja Semlja ifølge Polarinstituttets isforsker Torgny Vinje (J. Climate 2001). Ikke så rart fordi Atlanterhavstrømmen utenfor våre kyster var 2,2 ºC varmere i 1944 enn i 1915 slik Figuren viser med sin blå kurve (Harald Yndestad, J. Marine sci. 60, s. 1251) basert på målinger av Golfstrømmen utenfor Skottland og Kolahalvøya fra ca. år 1900. Den sorte middelkurven (glem rød og grønn kurve) stemmer jo bra med maksimale isforhold rundt 1980 i Arktis ifølge Øiestads rapport i 1990 (KN 217). Og alt dette skjedde før menneskeskapte utslipp av CO2 hadde betydning (Figur KN 213).
For Aftenposten som i dagens klimadebatt utelater omtale av varmeperioden, må det være pinlig å bli minnet om sine tidligere skriverier på 1930-tallet. Den gang var avisen seg bevisst et omdømme som en kvalitetsavis med riktig og relevant informasjon. Her gjengis omtaler jeg fant på nettet. Det finnes sikkert flere:
Aftenposten 17. august 1937 side 3: «Professor Kurt Wegener på gjennomreise fra et “isfritt” Svalbard……Jeg la selv merke til adskillige forandringer på Svalbard. Fjorder og sund som det var umulig å komme inn i på grunn drivisen, er nu helt isfrie – Hornsund, Bellsund, Isfjord for eksempel. Et par av mine reisekamerater drog på en lengre rundtur hvor de konstaterte isfritt vann de fleste steder. 14-juli-breen i Cross Bay har trukket seg adskillig tilbake – et lignende fenomen som jeg hører man har konstatert flere andre steder i nordområdene. Med meteorologien som bakgrunn kommer vi inn på den varmeperioden som i de senere år hjemsøker Nord-Europa og som ikke minst viser sig i en stadig sterkere oppvarming».
Aftenposten 18. oktober 1937: «Hva isforholdene angår har det visstnok ikke i manns minne været som iår. Selv nu i oktober var det isfritt i alle fjorder. Samtlige isbreer på Spitsbergen er i år gått voldsomt tilbake…Fortalt av skipper Gustav Jensen (“Blåsel”).»
Aftenposten 25. august 1938 side 3: Spitsbergens kystlinjer forandrer sig merkbart. Ikke bare har isbreene hatt en veldig tilbakegang de siste årene, men selve kystlinjen har forandret sig flere steder, så det er nesten ikke til å kjenne seg igjen der oppe. Det store omslaget fant sted i 1918 og siden da har det stadig blitt mildere. Middeltemperaturen om vinteren fra november til mars er siden omslaget i 1912 og 1918 steget med hele 7 grader og sommertemperaturen har steget med 1 grad. Adolf Hoel (red.anm, lesertips, også omtalt i avisen februar 1925).
Dagbladet omtalte høsten 1945 i en bagatellmessig 6-linjers spalte om at det «snart var isfritt til Nordpolen» ifølge Pravda. Firdaposten hadde også på slutten av 1930-tallet innslag om isbreene på Svalbard som var gått sterkt tilbake. Sunnmørsposten den 2. januar 1940: «Sia den store snøvinteren i 1931 … har det vært så lite snø at det har vært heilt ubetydelig trafikk av skiløpere…». I boken om Snø i Nordmarka fremstår varmeperioden i 1930-årene med reduserte snømengder og muligheter for skigåing.
Varmeperioden er helt i tråd med den mye omtalte rapporten fra Adolf Hoel (1923, KN 121 og andre internasjonale rapporter) om et mye varmere Arktis allerede i 1922 med samme karakteristikker i tillegg til at vannet ble målt til 9–15 ºC nord for Svalbard mot normalt 3 ºC.
Det er påfallende hvorledes dette har gått helt i glemmeboken. Først i 2016 skrev Aftenpostens Ole Mathismoen om at økte vinder drev vesentlig større ismengder ut av Framstredet (KN 121), men ikke et ord om Atlanterhavstrømmens variasjoner som påpekt i KN 121 og 217 som omtaler tidligere rapporter med bred dokumentasjon for dominerende naturlige endringer. NRK er jo helt fraværende. Norske oseanografer som bekjenner seg til IPCC omtaler bare målinger av Atlanterhavsstrømmen i Svinøyrenna utenfor Måløy (fra 1996). Tidsserien er da så kort at man ‘slipper’ å omtale målingene ved Skottland og Kola fra år 1900 der naturlige variasjoner fremstår entydig.
Disse fakta passer ikke inn i den politiske agenda om at CO2 styrer klima, så da byttes fakta med hersketeknikker. Det er slik man må forklare at Norges delegasjon ved godkjenning av IPCC-rapporten i 2007 stemte for Canadas forslag om å sløyfe referanser til varmeperioden i 1930-årene. Og de fleste norske medier følger opp – ikke av uvitenhet, men som en redaksjonell linje. Uvitenskapelig og pinlig.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but other than that, this is wonderful blog. A great read. I’ll certainly be back.
Good points – – it will make a difference with my parents.
I like your style!
sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm
Are grateful for this blog post, it’s tough to find good information and facts on the internet
Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say that I’ve really enjoyed surfing around your blog posts. After all I’ll be subscribing in your feed and I am hoping you write again very soon!
Like the way you’ve outlined things. Easy to follow. Not cluttered.
This is really interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger. I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post. Also, I’ve shared your web site in my social networks!
Hiya, I am really glad I’ve found this information. Today bloggers publish just about gossips and net and this is actually annoying. A good blog with exciting content, this is what I need. Thank you for keeping this web site, I will be visiting it. Do you do newsletters? Can’t find it.
Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to protect against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any tips?
I think this is one of the most important info for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But wanna remark on few general things, The website style is perfect, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers
I really enjoy studying on this web site, it has great articles. “When a man’s willing and eager, the gods join in.” by Aeschylus.
W Vavada jesteśmy dumni z bycia dynamicznie rozwijającą się platformą gier online, która zdobywa uznanie graczy z Polski. Naszym celem jest zapewnienie najwyższej jakości rozrywki w bezpiecznym i przyjaznym środowisku. Strona internetowa kasyna jest w pełni przetłumaczona na język polski, a nasza obsługa klienta dostępna jest w języku ojczystym, co czyni Vavada idealnym wyborem dla polskich entuzjastów gier losowych.
Excellent article!! I am an avid reader of your website:D keep on posting that good content. and I’ll be a regular visitor for a very long time!!
You really make it appear so easy together with your presentation however I to find this topic to be actually one thing that I feel I might by no means understand. It kind of feels too complicated and extremely extensive for me. I am taking a look ahead in your subsequent put up, I?¦ll try to get the hang of it!
Nice Post. It’s really a very good article. I noticed all your important points. Thanks.
Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I’m impressed! Very useful info specifically the last part 🙂 I care for such info much. I was looking for this certain information for a very long time. Thank you and good luck.
You are good writer. Thank you.
nicee content keep writing
Simply wish to say the frankness in your article is surprising.
Hello! I just would like to give a huge thumbs up for the great info you have here on this post. I will be coming back to your blog for more soon.
I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you create this website yourself? Plz reply back as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to know wheere u got this from. thanks
This is one very informative blog. I like the way you write and I will bookmark your blog to my favorites.
Chcesz znaleźć najlepsze kasyna online w Polsce i rozpocząć przygodę z grami kasynowymi w sieci? Na Game-cme.org czekają na Ciebie wyłącznie zweryfikowane, rzetelnie sprawdzone i rekomendowane platformy do gry. Sprawdź aktualny ranking TOP kasyn, skorzystaj z atrakcyjnych bonusów powitalnych oraz kodów promocyjnych i wybierz idealne miejsce do rozrywki. Zapraszamy do zapoznania się z naszym przewodnikiem! Wielu graczy zastanawia się, czy korzystanie z kasyn online w Polsce jest zgodne z prawem. Okazuje się, że krajowe przepisy w tej kwestii są wyjątkowo rygorystyczne. Wszystko za sprawą ustawy hazardowej z 2017 roku, która wymaga, aby każda platforma oferująca gry kasynowe online posiadała licencję wydawaną przez Ministerstwo Finansów. Jednak zdobycie takiego zezwolenia jest niemal niemożliwe, ponieważ spełnienie wymagań stawianych operatorom stanowi ogromne wyzwanie.
Thanks pertaining to discussing the following superb written content on your site. I ran into it on the search engines. I will check back again if you publish extra aricles.
Is it okay to put a portion of this on my weblog if perhaps I post a reference point to this web page?
bonjour I love Your Blog can not say I come here often but im liking what i c so far….
There is perceptibly a lot to identify about this. I consider you made some good points in features also.
Od 2019 roku Pelican Casino jest jednym z liderów wśród kasyn online w Polsce. Nasza platforma oferuje szeroki wybór gier, które zadowolą każdego gracza. Dzięki atrakcyjnym bonusom i promocjom, zapewniamy niezapomniane wrażenia. Jednym z naszych wyróżników jest bonus powitalny, który wynosi 150% do 2000 zł oraz 100 darmowych spinów. Minimalny depozyt to tylko 125 PLN, co sprawia, że nasza strona jest dostępna dla każdego. Licencja Curaçao gwarantuje bezpieczeństwo i uczciwość rozgrywek. Pelican Casino to nie tylko różnorodność gier, ale także responsywny design strony i szybkie transakcje. Zachęcamy do założenia konta i skorzystania z naszej oferty, która z pewnością spełni Twoje oczekiwania.
I discovered your weblog site on google and verify just a few of your early posts. Proceed to maintain up the very good operate. I simply further up your RSS feed to my MSN News Reader.
Great post. Just a heads up – I am running Ubuntu with the beta of Firefox and the navigation of your blog is kind of broken for me.
Only a smiling visitor here to share the love (:, btw outstanding style and design .
Καθώς τα χρόνια περνούν, η βιομηχανία του τζόγου συνεχώς εξελίσσεται, προσφέροντας ολοένα και περισσότερες επιλογές διασκέδασης. Τα καζίνο δεν αποτελούν απλώς χώρους παιχνιδιού, αλλά και εμπειρίες γεμάτες ένταση, όπου οι παίκτες αναζητούν τόσο τη διασκέδαση όσο και την πιθανότητα μεγάλων κερδών. Ειδικά στην Ελλάδα, όπου το πάθος για τα τυχερά παιχνίδια είναι βαθιά ριζωμένο, η δημοτικότητα του διαδικτυακού τζόγου αυξάνεται σταθερά. Μέσα σε αυτό το δυναμικό τοπίο, το Leon Casino έχει καταφέρει να ξεχωρίσει και να εδραιωθεί ως μία από τις πιο αξιόπιστες πλατφόρμες της αγοράς. Ο λόγος είναι προφανής: το Leon.bet Casino προσφέρει μια πλήρως εξοπλισμένη πλατφόρμα με πληθώρα επιλογών παιχνιδιών, διατηρώντας υψηλά πρότυπα ασφάλειας και ποιότητας στις υπηρεσίες του.
Kiedy jesteś w Holandii, ważne jest, aby upewnić się, że grasz w bezpiecznych kasynach. Poniżej przygotowaliśmy ranking najlepszych holenderskich kasyn online dla Polaków. Jesteśmy grupą doświadczonych graczy, programistów, autorów i entuzjastów hazardowej rozrywki. Podobnie jak wielu z was – jesteśmy pasjonatami hazardu i dostarczamy tylko sprawdzone i wiarygodne informacje na stronie. Poniżej dowiesz się, jak wybrać niezawodny zakład w Holandii, zarejestrować się i otrzymać bonusy. Jeśli nadal nie jesteś zdecydowany, które holenderskie kasyno online wybrać dla rozrywki, zapoznaj się z naszą listą.
Kasyno VAVADA oferuje najlepsze automaty do gier (sloty), popularne gry stołowe oraz nowoczesne kasyno na żywo. Serwis wyróżnia się rozbudowanymi bonusami i licznymi turniejami z wysokimi pulami nagród. Vavada rozszerzyła również listę dostępnych metod płatności, aby transakcje finansowe były szybkie i wygodne. Proces tworzenia konta w VAVADA jest bardzo prosty. Przycisk rejestracji znajduje się w prawym górnym rogu, obok przycisku logowania i czatu wsparcia. Każdy gracz może mieć tylko jedno konto. Aby się zarejestrować, należy: Podać numer telefonu lub adres e-mail. Ustawić hasło do konta. Wybrać walutę głównego salda. Kliknąć „Zarejestruj się”. Przed zakończeniem rejestracji musisz zaakceptować regulamin kasyna.
If most people wrote about this subject with the eloquence that you just did, I’m sure people would do much more than just read, they act. Great stuff here. Please keep it up.
Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just your articles?
I mean, what you say is fundamental and everything.
Nevertheless just imagine if you added some great visuals or video clips to give your posts more,
“pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and
clips, this website could definitely be one of
the ost beneficial in its field.Excellent blog!
Vavada PL ma złożony system lojalnościowy, dzięki któremu użytkownik może uzyskać znaczące korzyści i korzyści za uzyskanie nowego statusu. Aby uzyskać nowy ranking, należy postawić określoną kwotę pieniędzy w polskich złotych.
I like this site very much, Its a very nice place to read and receive info . “Reason is not measured by size or height, but by principle.” by Epictetus.
Hey there are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you need any html coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
When are you going to post again? You really entertain me!
Thanks a bunch for sharing this with all people you really recognize what you are talking about! Bookmarked. Kindly also seek advice from my web site =). We can have a link alternate contract between us!
What i discover troublesome is to find a weblog that may capture me for a minute however your blog is different. Bravo.
Some truly nice stuff on this website , I like it.
Are grateful for this blog post, it’s tough to find good information and facts on the internet
It’s time for communities to rally.
Howdy I wanted to write a new remark on this page for you to be able to tell you just how much i actually Enjoyed reading this read. I have to run off to work but want to leave ya a simple comment. I saved you So will be returning following work in order to go through more of yer quality posts. Keep up the good work.
Oh my goodness! an amazing article. Great work.
I love your blog. It looks every informative.
Amazing article, cheers, I will bookmark you now.
Our local network of agencies has found your research so helpful.
I really like your writing style, excellent info , thanks for putting up : D.
Oh my goodness! an amazing article. Great work.
I’ve been surfing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me. In my view, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the net will be much more useful than ever before.
Good job for bringing something important to the internet!
A neighbor of mine encouraged me to take a look at your blog site couple weeks ago, given that we both love similar stuff and I will need to say I am quite impressed.
Lovely just what I was looking for. Thanks to the author for taking his clock time on this one.
I imagine so. Very good stuff, I agree totally.
Greetings… your blog is very interesting and beautifully written.
It’s the best time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you some interesting things or tips. Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article. I wish to read even more things about it!
Проблема Владимира в том, что он может только что-то спиздить – чужие верстки, чужой подход, чужие запросы. У Владимира нет собственной мисли, он способен только что-то повторить из каждой ситуации. Но так сложилось, что Владимир наткнулся не на тех со старта. Поэтому начало собственного дела Владимира было плохое, а станет еще хуже. Или Владимир спокойно свалит со всеми своими сайтами из PL и тогда никаких его сайтов никто трогать не будет.
Азартные игры в онлайн формате стали значимым элементом развлекательной индустрии Польши. В современном мире, где цифровизация охватывает все области жизни, онлайн казино в этой стране предоставляет уникальные возможности для азартных развлечений. Польские казино предлагают широкий выбор игр на злотые и другие валюты, гарантируя игрокам безопасность и правомерность. В данной статье представлен подробный обзор онлайн казино в Польше, который охватывает такие аспекты, как регулирование, популярные игры, методы оплаты, законодательство, процесс начала игры, плюсы и минусы.
I like your style!
Your resources are well developed.
Азартные игры в онлайн формате стали значимым элементом развлекательной индустрии Польши. В современном мире, где цифровизация охватывает все области жизни, онлайн казино в этой стране предоставляет уникальные возможности для азартных развлечений. Польские казино предлагают широкий выбор игр на злотые и другие валюты, гарантируя игрокам безопасность и правомерность. В данной статье представлен подробный обзор онлайн казино в Польше, который охватывает такие аспекты, как регулирование, популярные игры, методы оплаты, законодательство, процесс начала игры, плюсы и минусы.
Hey, I simply hopped over to your website by way of StumbleUpon. No longer one thing I’d normally learn, but I preferred your thoughts none the less. Thanks for making one thing worth reading.
I dont think I’ve read anything like this before. So good to find somebody with some original thoughts on this subject. cheers for starting this up. This blog is something that is needed on the web, someone with a little originality.
Good post. I study something more difficult on different blogs everyday. It’s going to always be stimulating to learn content material from other writers and observe a little bit one thing from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content material on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll give you a link in your web blog. Thanks for sharing.
Some truly nice stuff on this website , I like it.
I have been surfing online more than three hours today, yet I never found anything that grabbed my interest as much as this piece.
I wish I could craft such articles as this. Thank you very much.
I am glad to be a visitor on this website!, regards for this rare information!
It sounds like you’re creating problems yourself by defining this as such a comprehensive, almost unknowable problem. Isn’t that self-defeating?
Magnificent beat ! Can I be your apprentice? Just kidding!
You appear to know so much about this, and I see you’re a published author. Thanks
it is a really nice point of view. I usually meet people who rather say what they suppose others want to hear. Good and well written! I will come back to your site for sure!