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“Dette er en artikkel hentet fra Værstat, og er publisert etter tillatelse. Den ble først publisert 04.09.2021. Les flere slike artikler og følg værstatistikk på verstat.no“.
https://verstat.no/2021/09/04/fikk-alarmistene-rett-om-havisen/
Fikk alarmistene rett om havisen i Arktis? Se hva som faktisk skjedde!
Det er vært stort fokus på polhavisen i Arktis etter at sommerisnivået viste en akselererende fallende trend på midten av 2000-tallet.
Det kulminerte i 2009 med en oppsiktsvekkende påstand (se video nedenfor) fra Nobels fredsprisviinner og tidligere visepresident Al Gore, som refererte til forsker Dr. Wieslav Maslowski.
Påstanden ble fremmet i en presentasjon som ble holdt sammen med den daværende norske utenriksministeren, Jonas Gahr Støre.
Påstanden fritt oversatt til norsk:
Noen av modellene antyder for Dr. Maslowski at det er 75% sjanse for at hele Nordpolens iskappe kan bli fullstendig isfri gjennom deler av sommermånedene de neste fem til syv årene.
Al Gore, 2009
Ifølge National Review så dementerte Dr. Maslaowski senere at han skal ha estimert sannsynligheten for et slikt utfall med en slik nøyaktighet.
Al Gore mottok Nobels fredspris sammen med FNs mellomstatlige klimapanel (IPCC) i 2007. Dette kan ha bidratt til å gi vekt til påstandene.
Værstat har ikke vært fornøyd med visningen av statistikk som viser utviklingen i havisen i polare strøk, og har utarbeidet egne statistikker som viser utviklingen slik at man kan få et overblikk over utviklingen.
Følg daglig oppdatert statistikk fra Værstat på Polar Ice Extent – Arctic and Antarctic Statistics.
Nedenfor viser utdrag fra statistikken per 3. september 2021, og egne analyser. Viktig – man begynte satellittmåling av polarhavis i 1979, vi har derfor ikke tilgang til sammenlignbar statistikk før 1979.
Hvordan står det egentlig til med havisen i polare strøk?
Statistikk på dagsbasis – Arktis og Antarktis
Statistikk på dagsbasis gir oss det beste overblikket for å forstå hvordan havisen oppfører seg gjennom året. Det gir oss også innsikt hvordan endringene de senere årene har foregått.
Grafen viser utviklingen i både Arktis og Antarktis i samme bildet. Vi ser tydelig utviklingen gjennom året, hvor laveste nivå i nordpolen gir naturlig nok høyeste nivå i sørpolen.
Vi ser også at havisnivået i Arktis har ligget i lavere sjikt de siste 10 årene (mørkere farge), og at det er spesielt sommerhavisen skiller seg ut ved høyest reduksjon.
Nivået ned mot laveste nivåer (septembermåneden) ligger per i dag i øvre sjikt for Arktis sett mot de siste 10 årene.
Statistikk på dagsbasis – summert polarhavisnivå
For å få et totaloverblikk, kan det være nyttig å se den totale havisen per dag gjennom årene. Dette gjør vi enkelt ved å legge sammen dagsverdiene.
Totalbildet gir et litt annet bilde enn det vi har vant med. Det er altså ikke i sommermånedene på nordlige halvkule havisen er på sitt laveste nivå.
Det er i februar måned vi ser det laveste totale polarhavisnivået i verden. Vi ser ikke tilsvarende dramatikk i dette laveste sjiktet i Antarktis’ sommermåneder.
Vi ses også at det mer stabile havisnivået i Antarktis oppveier noe for det betydelige fallet i sommerhavisen i Arktis. Bildet er ikke like dramatisk når vi ser det totale bildet.
Måndene som skiller seg ut med størst endring og avvikende verdier er oktober og november, før nivået som regel stabiliserer seg mot nyåret.
Hvordan har forskere og politikere tolket utviklingen i Arktis?
Værstat gir også mulighet til å se utviklingen på årsbasis for totalt polarhavisnivå, og for Arktis og Antarktis separat. Nå skal vi se statistikken for Arktis brutt ned til månedsmiddelverdier.
Kan vi se hvordan forskere og politikere kunne komme frem til at havisen kunne komme til å forsvinne i enkelte måneder gjennom året?
Grafen viser tydelig en relativt stor variasjon mellom månedene, og at det er månedene august, september og oktober som skiller seg ut.
Vi ser også at dersom den lineære trenden for perioden 1979 til 2020 fortsetter, så vil det være et tidsspørsmål før man når en isfri periode i Arktis enkelte måneder.
Men hvordan kunne man påstå at det var 75% sjanse for isfrie måneder innen fem til syv år etter 2009, slik Al Gore påsto?
EKSTREPOLERING AV EN KORT TIDSPERIODE
Dersom vi først ser perioden 1979 til 2006, ser vi at det er vært en relativt stabil nedadgående trend:
Men hva skjedde etter 2006?
Ved å filterere på perioden 2006 til 2008, kan vi se et relativt høyt fall i havisnivået i september for Arktis.
Bunnpunkt på 4,7 mill. kvadratkilometer månedsmiddel havis i Arktis ble registrert i 2007, en nedgang på 1,7 mill. / 26% mot 2006. Isolert sett virker denne utviklingen dramatisk.
I min grafikk ovenfor er det trukket en lineær ekstrapolering av den lineære trenden mellom 2006 til 2008, markert i rød pil. Ved å gjøre dette forutsetter man at den dramatiske utviklingen i havisnivået forsatte i samme tempo.
Den lineære ekstrapoleringen viser at havisen ville ha nådd et nullpunkt mellom 2010 og 2020.
HVA VAR DET SOM SKJEDDE ETTER 2009?
I forskning så vurderer man hypoteser og spådommer om fremtiden opp mot empiri. I dette tilfellet er vi heldige å vet empirien frem til 2020.
Fortsatte den dramatiske utviklingen man så fra 2006 til 2008?
Vi ser at etter et stegvis fall i sommerminimumsisen for september måned fra 2006 til 2008, så har utviklingen stabilisert seg.
Et foreløpig bunnpunkt på 4,1 mill. kvadratkilometer månedsmiddel for september ble registrert i 2012. I 2020 ble det registrert 4,5 mill.
Per 3. september 2021 er havisutstrekningen rundt 5,8 mill. kvadratkilometer, men vi er fortsatt ikke i det typiske bunnpunktet for havisutstrekningen i Arktis. Det blir spennende å se hvor vi ender i år!
Bruk statistikken for å få mer innsikt i utviklingen og nye utviklingstrekk!
Tradisjonelle visninger av havisnivåer gir etter Værstat sin mening ikke det fulle bildet, og fremhever gjerne enkelte elementer eller utviklingstrekk. Dette gjør det vanskelig å etterprøve påstander og spådommer, eller få ny innsikt gjennom statistikken.
Basisen for statistikkene som presenteres på Værstat er låste akser, og at man kan se det totale havisnivået opp mot nullpunktet. Dette gjør det mulig å få et nøytralt bilde av utviklingen.
Vil den fallende utviklingen i sommerhavisen i Arktis restarte etter en periode med en mer stabil utvikling, eller vil havisen fortsette på samme stabile nivåene som de siste 10 årene?
Eller vil havisen starte en økende trend? Følg utviklingen fra dag til dag på Værstat!
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