3. February 2023

Global temperatur september 2021. UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer

 

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/10/02/global-temperatur-september-2021/

Global temperatur september 2021

Vi har temperaturdata for september fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for september er med 0,25 C noe opp fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.

UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren

UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. September 2021 er med (0,25 C) noe opp fra forrige måneds (0,17 C).

  • Nordlige halvkule noe ned til 0,18 o C, fra 0,27 C forrige mnd.
  • Sydlige halvkule klart opp til 0,33 o C, fra 0,08 C forrige mnd.
  • Tropene nær uendret med 0,09 C, fra 0,07 C forrige mnd.
  • USA48 klart opp til 0,67 C, fra 0,33 C forrige mnd.
  • Arktis kraftig ned til 0,02 C, fra 0,83 C forrige mnd
  • Australia klart opp til 0,37 C, fra -0,02 C forrige mnd.

Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.

Temperaturtrend

Klimapanelets hovedrapport fra 2013/14 oppgir trenden i observasjonene, basert på bakkemålt temperatur (WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010): «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012».
For de som er interessert i oppvarmingstrenden i UAH-observasjonene siden januar 1979, uten å ta hensyn til trendskiftet i 1998, så opplyser Dr. Spencer at denne nå har falt fra 0,14C til 0,13C pr tiår.

Tysklands kanskje mest framtredende klimaforsker Hans von Storch, uttalte i et intervju med Der Spiegel i 2013 om temperaturtrenden: «In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero».
Mer interessant, uttaler han seg samme sted om IPCC-leirens klimamodeller som er grunnlaget for de spenstige scenariene for framtidig temperaturutvikling: «If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario».

Ingen av modellene greidde å forutsi den nå 23 år lange temperaturpausen, og ingen av modellene som brukes i IPCC-leirens scenarier har temperaturpauser på 20 år. Bare en modell har en pause på 15 år eller mere. Modellene feiler altså grovt på de intervallene i historiske observasjoner av temperatur hvor det pågår en nedkjøling.

Forklaringen er at modellene bruker en alt for høy klimafølsomhet for CO2 både i fortid og i framtidige scenarier. Dette i tillegg til at IPCC åpent innrømmer at modellene er ubrukelige til langtids projeksjoner av temperatur. Likevel vil ikke IPCCs politiske ledelse innrømme at modellene feiler, selv om flere av deres egne klimaforskere åpent påpeker at modellene er for varme.

Hav, energi og masse

Energien vår klode mottar fra sola deponeres som varme enten i havet, i atmosfæren eller på land. Deponiet består i hovedsak av vannets masse i vannets ulike faser (gass/vanndamp, væske/vann eller fast form/is). Basert på data fra seneste 40 år går 94 % av varmen i havet, bare ca 1 % i atmosfæren siden den har bagatellmessig masse i forhold til havet og de siste 5 % i is og vann på klodens landareal. 90 % av isen på land er i Antarktis. Det er en tidsforsinkelse på 40-50 år mellom solvariasjon (årsak) og havoppvarming i overflaten (virkning).

Havets temperatur er derfor mye viktigere enn atmosfærens. Vanndampen med skyer er altså den totalt dominerende drivhusgassen, mens CO2 hverken kan deponere energi eller utgjør noen betydelig del av drivhuseffekten. Vi velger derfor å gjengi en figur fra Ole Humlums Climate4you.com, som viser temperaturanomalier i den dominerende havstrømmen i Stillehavet (PDO). PDO er i hovedsak i fase med global temperaturutvikling ifølge prof. Humlum.

PDO i Stillehavet viser i likhet med global temperatur at vi er inne i en flerårig kjølende trend.

ENSO-varsler

ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen (PDO) på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña  (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.

ENSO-status 27.september
ENSO-status 30.august

NOAA i USA modellerer sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figurene ovnfor. Til venstre status ved utgangen av august (nøytral status), og til høyre i en fersk analyse (27. sept.) en sterk La Niña sesong fra oktober og gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. La Niña-sesongen som i august ble modellert til å kunne gi 1 grad C kaldere overflatevann, skal ifølge siste modellkjøring gi en nesten dobbelt så sterk kjølende effekt på overflatevannet. Flere land forbereder seg derfor nå på en kaldere vinter, og prisnivået på både kull og naturgass har økt drastisk den siste tiden siden tilbudet er mindre enn etterspørselen.

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