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Aftenposten: https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikk/i/GKel/kronikk-klimateorien-er-meningsloes-vitenskap
Kronikk: Klimateorien er meningsløs vitenskap
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Per Arne Bjørkum
Når man forsøker å gi uttrykk for en faglig usikkerhet i et malplassert statistisk språk, blir klimateorien ikke bare faglig upresis, men også upresis i måten den fremstilles på, skriver Per Arne Bjørkum. Foto: STEFANIE LOOS/Reuters/NTB Scanpix
Hvor har klimaforskerne lært at det er mulig å sette tall på kunnskap man ikke har?
Dette er en kronikk. Meninger i teksten står for skribentens regning.
De siste 25 årene har klimaforskere i FNs klimapanel (IPCC) funnet stadig flere observasjoner som bekrefter teorien om at vi har påvirket klimaet på Jorden. Det er imidlertid – til forskjell fra hva mange folk tror – ikke et økende antall bekreftende observasjoner som bestemmer holdbarheten til en vitenskapelig teori.
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Det er nemlig allment kjent blant forskere, men ofte glemt, at «det er lett å finne bekreftelser for nesten enhver teori, hvis du leter etter bekreftelser» ( Conjectures and Refutations , 1963, Karl Popper). Det som derimot bidrar til å overbevise forskerkolleger, er at en teori overlever alle forsøk på å vise at den er gal.
For at det skal være mulig å vise at teorien er gal, må den på en eksakt måte utelukke, eller forby om man vil, visse observasjoner. Finner man ikke noe av det den utelukker, og man leter etter det, blir teorien gradvis styrket (men aldri endelig bevist).
Har fellestrekk med kvasiteorier
Når man derimot observerer ut fra teorier som «ikke utelukker noe, ser man bekreftelser over alt» (Popper, 1963). Slike teorier blir av vitenskapsteoretikere klassifisert som kvasiteorier.
Selv om disse teoriene appellerer til observasjoner og eksperimenter, så lever de ikke opp til de krav som stilles til vitenskapelige teorier. Klimateorien som er lagt frem i IPCC-rapportene The Physical Science Basis i 2013 og Summary for Policymakers i 2014, har noen fellestrekk med slike kvasiteorier.
Ett av fellestrekkene er at klimateorien ikke er eksakt. Den består egentlig av litt over 100 ulike modeller som alle gir ulike fremtidige temperaturbaner på Jorda. Klimaforskerne er enige om at en betydelig del av årsaken til denne usikkerheten skyldes at vi pr. i dag har «mangelfull kunnskap» om klimaet og det fører til «upresise modeller om klimasystemet» ( The Physical Science Basis ).
- **Det høres litt absurd ut:
Er det fleip eller fakta?**
Kunnskap de ikke har
Klimaforskerne forsøker å håndtere den mangelfulle kunnskapen ved å angi graden av forståelse i form av statistiske sannsynlighetsmål på hvor nær man er sannheten, så som «ekstremt sannsynlig», «veldig sannsynlig», «lite sannsynlig», og med angitte prosentintervall.
Dette er høyst oppsiktsvekkende fordi det finnes ingen vitenskapelig metode for å håndtere, og langt mindre sette tall på, kunnskap man ikke har. Så hvor i sin utdanning har klimaforskerne lært at det er mulig?
Hverken Einstein, eller noen andre forskere, har noen gang forsøkt å angi hvor nær man er sannheten, fordi det ville vært helt meningsløst.
Albert Einstein var tydelig på at hans egen generelle relativitetsteori kun var tilnærmet rett, slik alle våre teorier om naturen er ansett for å være.
Men hverken Einstein, eller noen andre forskere, har noen gang forsøkt å angi hvor nær man er sannheten, fordi det ville vært helt meningsløst.
Et malplassert statistisk språk
Klima er et komplekst kaotisk system som styres av mange prosesser som virker sammen på måter vi ikke helt forstår. Vi kan derfor ikke forvente at man skal kunne komme med eksakte påstander slik vi er vant til i fysikk.
Det er derfor behov for å være ydmyk og gi uttrykk for at man ikke vet nok. Men når man forsøker å gi uttrykk for denne faglige usikkerheten i et malplassert statistisk språk (med tallangivelser), blir klimateorien ikke bare faglig upresis, men også upresis i måten den fremstilles på.
Vitenskapsteoretikeren Karl Popper (1902–1994) hadde teoriene til Karl Marx og Sigmund Freud i tankene da han fant det nødvendig å dra opp skillet mellom vitenskap og kvasivitenskap (også kjent som Poppers demarkasjonskriterium).
Disse teoriene kunne ifølge Popper tilsynelatende forklare praktisk talt alt de ble forelagt innenfor det felt de refererte til, og en «marxist kunne ikke åpne en avis uten å finne, på hver side, støtte for sin tolkning av historien».
Klimateorien viste noe av sin evne til å forklare alt da man oppdaget at temperaturen på Jorda de siste 18 årene har vært nær konstant, til tross for at innholdet av klimagasser har økt mer i denne perioden enn i noen tidligere tilsvarende perioder.
Det kom øyensynlig som en overraskelse på Klimapanelets klimaforskere, men de har re-tolket klimateorien og kommet frem til at temperaturutflatingen skyldes at uvanlig mye varme har skjult seg i havet i denne perioden.
Det ble bråk da Frp-lederen kom ut av skapet som klimaskeptiker:
Siv Jensen tviler på om klimaendringene er menneskeskapte
Ødelegger teorien de forsøker å redde
Det er ikke uvanlig, og heller ikke uvitenskapelig, å ty til den løsningen som klimaforskerne i Klimapanelet har gjort. Mange etablerte teorier er nemlig blitt «opprettholdt av dem som beundrer den, for eksempel ved å innføre nye hensiktsmessige antagelser, eller ved å retolke teorien med den hensikt å redde den fra falsifisering.
De som er personlig overbevist om at Klimapanelets teori er rett, kan, på samme måte som marxistene, finne bekreftelser i avisene hver dag
En slik prosedyre er alltid mulig, men prisen for å redde den, er at man ødelegger den, eller i det minste så reduserer man dens vitenskapelige status» (Popper, 1963). Til tross for at klimaforskerne har måttet foreta noen justeringer og retolkninger av klimateorien for å berge den, har de selv imidlertid fått økt tillit til den.
Når bekreftelsene på den måten blir åpenbare for alle som vil se dem, er det i seg selv et tegn på at man er inne på et kvasivitenskapelig blindspor.
I naturvitenskap, som klimaforskningen er en del av, har man nemlig lenge vær klar over at «..faktisk, ingenting av det vi vet kommer av det vi har sett» fordi «sannheten skjuler seg i dypet» (Demokrit, 460–470 f. Kr.), om enn ikke i havdypet.
Hva ville være i strid med teorien?
Man vil kunne øke klimateoriens vitenskapelige status hvis klimapanelets forfattere avstår fra et, i denne sammenheng, meningsløst statistisk språk og heller, som er normen i forskning, tilstreber å tydeliggjøre hvilke observasjoner som ville vært i strid med teorien. Ville for eksempel et eventuelt fall i den globale temperaturen i årene som kommer kunne være en slik observasjon?
Per Arne Bjørkum har vært dekan ved Universitetet i Stavanger. Han jobber nå som forsker i Statoil, innenfor geologi, og underviser som professor II i faget Vitenskapsteori og etikk for phd-studenter ved NTNU og Universitetet i Stavanger. Denne teksten er skrevet som privatperson.
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