by
https://klimarealisme.dk/2021/10/24/isen-paa-antarktis/
Isen på Antarktis
Vi hører altid, at indlandsisen i Antarktis smelter i stort omfang og bidrager til de årlige havstigninger. På den anden side har vi lige hørt, at temperaturen i Antarktis ikke er steget de sidste 40 år. Det lyder jo ikke som om, at det skulle kunne medføre nogen større afsmeltning.
Man bedømmer jo imidlertid ikke afsmeltningen ud fra lufttemperaturer alene. Isbalancen består af flere elementer. Tilførslen sker i form af snefald og tabet ved smeltning af is fra overfladen, men i langt højere grad ved at gletsjere afgiver is til havet. Sidstnævnte kan være forårsaget af ”varmt” havvand men i Vestantarktis er der også vulkaner under isen, de bidrager til at få gletsjerne til at glide hurtigere ud i havet.
Ved hjælp af satellitter prøver man at måle den samlede mængde is i Antarktis og variationerne fra år til år. Det er jo ikke nogen nem opgave, da de årlige udsving er meget små, sammenlignet med den totale mængde af is. Nedenstående artikels forfatter har været inde på NASA’s hjemmeside og fundet et opslag, der var baseret på en artikel, skrevet af Zwally et al., der udkom i 2017.
Konklusionen her var, at isens masse i perioden 1992-2001 voksede med godt 100 Gt (gigatons = milliarder tons) om året. I den efterfølgende periode 2003-2008 var stigningen på 82 Gt/år. Det bekymrede Zwally, der påpegede, at udviklingen måske ikke bliver ved, små forskydninger mellem snefald og gletsjerne kan hurtigt ændre tilvæksten til 0. Men det er der ikke nogen, der ved noget om. Det bekymrede også Zwally, at den stigning i havet på 0,23 mm/år, der normalt tilskrives afsmeltning fra Antarktis nu må have andre kilder.
NASA’s hjemmeside havde imidlertid også en anden side, kaldet vital signs(=”helbred”?) for Jorden, den viste det stik modsatte resultat. Her er en kurve, som vist på fig. 1. I følge den har vi siden 2001 haft et årligt tab på ca. 150 Gt.
Man kan sammenstille de to scenarier, og får et billede som vist på fig. 2. Der er jo stor forskel, for at sige det mildt, selvom det er baseret på de samme data. Zwallys artikel fra 2017 blev meget omdiskuteret – selvfølgeligt – men ingen kunne direkte tilbagevise hans resultater. Han har så i år udsendt endnu en artikel, hvor han har ført sine tal frem til 2020 og konklusionen er vist på fig. 3. Der er en tilvækst i mængden af is frem til 2012, men de sidste år er den dog relativt beskeden, 34 Gt/år. Fra 2012 og fremefter er der tale om et ganske lille fald – ca. 12 Gt/år. Kurven viser i øvrigt de store udsving med sæsonen, sommer/vinter. Faldet siden 2012 er i alt godt 100 Gt, hvilket er mindre end det årlige tab i NASA’s klimapolitisk korrekte kurve vist på fig. 1.
Det hører med til historien, at den samlede mængde is i Antarktis er ca. 26,5 millioner gigatons, så de årlige udsving må siges at være meget små i forhold hertil. Selv med NASA’s 150 Gt/år vil en total afsmeltning tage ca. 180.000 år. Til den tid har vi sikkert haft endnu en istid og befinder os måske i den næste mellemistid, hvor man næppe bekymrer sig om isen på Antarktis.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/10/06/antarctic-ice-mass-alternate-sources/
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