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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/10/05/vanndamp-er-klodens-dominerende-drivhusgass/
Vanndamp er klodens dominerende drivhusgass
- Kategorier: Atmosfærefysikk, Cicero, Drivhuseffekten
Klimanytt nr. 307. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
I tropene inneholder atmosfæren opp til 7 % vanndamp som er en meget sterk og klodens dominerende drivhusgass, men bare 0.04 % er CO2 som er en svak drivhusgass. Likevel hevder CICERO i Aftenposten at det er CO2 som styrer klima. En uholdbar påstand ut ifra fysikkens lover, forhold på vår vannrike klode og dens historikk, men også i forhold til vanlig folkevett.
Vanndamp er den dominerende drivhusgass
‘CO2 er en svak drivhusgass, mens vanndamp er en meget sterk drivhusgass’ sto det i lærebøker i 1960-årene. Da hadde de fysiske lover for stråling og holdbare laboratoriemålinger vært kjent i 100 år (KN 282). Selv om noen adresserte økt CO2s påvirkning ble effekten ansett som liten. En viktig klimakonferanse ved Princeton i 1955 for verdens fremste meteorologer hadde bare ett innlegg om CO2 (KN 194). Vanndamp absorberer det meste av strålingen unntatt i et begrenset ‘vindu’ i det infrarøde spektralområde, og svekker derved de andre gassenes bidrag noe. Regionale satellittmålinger rundt 1970 og tilhørende beregninger bekreftet CO2s begrensede betydning (KN 297, 300).
For et visuelt inntrykk. I figuren viser det andre grå feltet ovenfra vanndampens absorpsjon, og feltet under viser et langt mindre og overlappende bidrag fra CO2. For nærmere omtale se KN 150.
Drivhuseffekten gjør kloden ca. 33 grader varmere (IPCC) enn uten drivhusgasser, men bare ca. 5 grader skyldes CO2. Metan, ozon og lystgass er samlet sett bagatellmessige, mens vanndamp inklusive skyer utgjør resterende ca. 28 grader.
CO2 og vanndamp finnes i så store mengder at ett nytt molekyl bare vil ha rundt en hundredel til en tusendedel av effekten av de første molekylene (logaritmisk effekt). Det kalles optisk metning (KN 147, 297, 300).
Beregningsmodellene baseres på at økt CO2 medfører mange ganger vanndampforsterkning. Den feilaktige konstruksjonen startet med Arrhenius reviderte modell i 1906 og har siden vært basis i IPCCs modellberegninger til tross for at satellittmålinger rundt 1970 og store prosjekter om fordampning i Stillehavsområdet i 1990-årene ikke bekreftet hypotesen. Også mange tiårs målinger med værballonger og senere satellitter viser at vanndampmengden går ned i de atmosfærelag der IPCCs modeller beregner den største effekt. Hvordan kan mindre mengder forsterke?
I realiteten viser en rekke studier og beregninger (NIPCC 2013) at økt vanndamp i hovedsak svekker CO2s bidrag til oppvarming. Oppvarmingen fra økt drivhuseffekt observeres å være liten, omtrent 0. 5 C ved dobling av CO2, hvorav vi i dag har oppnådd rundt halvparten 0.25 C. Omtrent en fjerdedel av CO2-økningen er menneskeskapt, som gir ca. 0.1 C. Resten er naturlig.
Det er derfor klimadebatten i mediene er sensurert. IPCCs beregninger tåler ikke dagens lys.
IPCC med uvitenskapelig kunstgrep
I stedet for å behandle alle drivhusgassene under ett og få frem betydningen av den enkelte gass og deres samvirke foretar IPCC et kunstgrep og beskriver effekten av de svake (CO2 og de øvrige) i et eget kapittel og behandler den i naturen dominerende vanndamp i et annet kapittel under påstanden om at de øvrige drivhusgassene er årsak til mer vanndamp i atmosfæren.
Vann dominerer imidlertid overflaten på ‘Den blå planet’ og vanndampmengden påvirkes av mange og langt kraftigere faktorer enn CO2 som omtalt nedenfor. Det er snarere omvendt. Vann er en kraftig varmeregulator og kaldere vann tar opp CO2 som avgis ved oppvarming. Regn har pH på ca 5.8 som bl.a. skyldes opptak av og dermed drenering av atmosfærens CO2.
Aftenposten som forsvarer av IPCC – ikke vitenskapen
Dette er noe av bakgrunnen for at Per Arne Bjørkum stilte spørsmål til Bjørn H. Samset, CICERO om IPCCs feilaktige behandling av vanndamp i den siste rapporten (Aftenposten 27. aug. 2021). Samset et al. (3. Sept.) avviste problemstillingen og hevdet at alle faktorer ved vanndampen var godt forstått og hensyntatt. Bjørkum tilbakeviste, helt korrekt, Samsets påstander og spurte hvorfor det ikke gis et presist svar når alt er kjent? Trykking ble utsatt til dagen etter valget.
CICERO påstår at halen logrer med hunden
I svaret begår CICERO den alvorlige feil (for forskere – ikke politikere) å lage en fortelling for å overbevise folk i stedet for å informere vitenskapelig. De skriver: «Kort fortalt: uten mer CO2, eller andre faktorer som varmer jordoverflaten, får vi heller ingen økning i vanndamp». Et godt eksempel på manglende vitenskapelig integritet der CO2 med liten effekt utheves for leseren mens andre faktorer, som er totalt dominerende, får ubetydelighetens preg.
Siden det måles mindre vanndampmengde i de atmosfærelag der IPCCs såkalte ‘gode’ beregningsmodeller gir den største effekt, må modellene åpenbart være helt feilaktige uansett hva årsakene er.
Men utsagnet er også helt galt. Som ett av mange eksempler genereres store endringer i atmosfærens vanndampinnhold ved en varmere havoverflate under El Niño i Stillehavet (KN 120). Det skyldes ikke energiøkning, men kun en omfordeling av havets energi. Varmt vann som har hopet seg opp (inntil 1m), mot øyene i den vestlige del rundt ekvator strømmer østover, brer seg ut over enorme områder, hever overflatetemperaturen med flere grader og gir globale varmetopper. Fordampningen øker markant (Claussius-Clapeyrons ligning), og energi frigjøres ved kondensasjon høyere opp. I realiteten er det en utlufting av klodens energi uten bidrag fra økt CO2. Videre dannes skyer som reflekterer solenergi – også uten bidrag fra CO2, men det gir økt utstråling også fra CO2 (sic). Den kalde La Niña-fasen vil redusere temperatur, vanndampmengde og følgeeffekter – også uten innflytelse fra CO2.
Over landjorda genereres vanndamp fra alle vassdrag og fuktige områder som del av temperaturreguleringen. Mye av vanndampen kommer imidlertid fra plantenes ‘pusting’ gjennom huller i bladverket (stomata). Økt CO2 reduserer i betydelig grad antall stomata og dermed plantenes vannforbruk og vanndamputslipp ved mindre transpirasjon.
Andre faktorer som påvirker vanndampmengder
En rekke andre faktorer påvirker også havets overflatetemperatur og fordampning. Havstrømmer og deres forgreninger som i likhet med vinder påvirkes av variabel jordrotasjon, og månens periodiske tidevannssykluser som influerer oppvelling av kaldere vann fra dypere lag. Også de markante periodiske vind- og havsyklusene som NAO/AO, SAM, ITCZ, IOD, AMO/AMOC og PDO påvirker (KN 139). Slike variasjoner vil også smelte is og bidra til økt fordampning (KN 121). Atmosfæriske forhold over det meste av kloden blir berørt.
Ved solens koronautbrudd observeres i dagene etterpå en økning i atmosfærens vanndampinnhold på flere prosentpoeng. Støv, bakterier, utslipp av stoffer til atmosfæren (hvorav noen skyldes mennesker, men ikke CO2) og solens magnetfelt/endring i kosmisk stråling innebærer alle mekanismer for dråpedannelse som igjen er essensiell for videre dråpevekst som danner skyer som dekker 65+/- 3 % av jordoverflaten og som eventuelt gir nedbør.
Samset uttaler også: «Når vanndamp behandles annerledes enn CO2 og metan er det hovedsakelig fordi den har kortere levetid i atmosfæren». Det er riktig at den hydrologiske syklus bare er på 8-12 dager. Men drivhuseffekten bestemmes av de gassene som til enhver tid er i atmosfæren og er bestemt av den dynamiske vekselvirkning mellom vann og vanndamp. Gassene absorberer kontinuerlig stråling fra hvert punkt på jordoverflaten. Oppholdstiden er slik sett uinteressant bortsett fra at den kan gi raskere variasjoner (som modellene neppe fanger opp med alle sine forenklinger). Derfor er det et tilleggspoeng at mange andre menneskelige aktiviteter påvirker vanndampmengden som kunstige sjøer, kanaler, omfattende irrigasjon i landbruk og hager, reduserte vannmengder i byer og forbrenning inklusive forbrenning av hydrogen.
Konklusjon
Vanndampen er klodens dominerende reguleringsmekanisme som påvirkes av en rekke naturlige faktorer, litt av mennesker og minimalt av utslipp av CO2.
Den velrennomerte fysikeren, Steven Koonin, påpeker i sin klimabok at å tro man bare kan mate data inn i en modell og beregne fremtidens klima er bare fantasi. «Anyone who says that climate models are ‘just physics’ either doesn’t understand them or is being deliberately misleading» (Koonin, 2021, s. 81). Samset og Aftenposten får velge hva de mener er mest dekkende.
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