FNs Klimapanel tolker sol- og klimadata feil
Forfattet av Ole Humlum, professor emeritus UiO, og Jan-Erik Solheim, professor emeritus UiT.
Et panel av forskere fra hele verden har publisert en rapport som viser at vi vet for lite om årsakene til klimaendringer til å gi drivhusgassene skylden. Vår forskning gir et resultat som ikke stemmer med konklusjoner fra FNs klimapanel (IPCC) som bygger på ufullstendige data og manglende forståelse av solas utstråling.
Rapportens tittel er «How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate». Den er fagfellevurdert og publisert i «Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics», Vol 21, No.6, 131 (68pp).
Forskergruppen består av R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, C. J. Butler, R. G. Cionco, A. G. Elias, V. M. Fedorov, H. Harde, G. W. Henry, D. V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D. R. Legates, S. Luning, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, H. van Loon, V. M. Velasco Herrera, R. C. Willson, H. Yan and W. Zhang.
Det meste av den energien som finnes i jordas atmosfære kommer fra Sola. Det har lenge vært kjent at endringer i «total solutstråling» (TSI), eller den mengde energi mottatt fra Sola i løpet av de siste hundreårene, kan ha bidratt vesentlig til de seneste tiders klimaendringer. Men i de nyeste rapporter fra FN-klimapanel brukes kun forskingsrapporter som viser små solvariasjoner. Som følge av dette har Klimapanelet konkludert med at Sola ikke har hatt noen virkning på klimaet de siste 100-150 år.
Vår vitenskapelige oversiktsartikkel som nylig er publisert viser at konklusjonene til FNs klimapanel om at klimaendringene skyldes menneskelig virksomhet er svakt vitenskapelig begrunnet. Rapporten som er forfattet av 23 eksperter på solvariasjoner og klima fra 14 forskjellige land, er publisert i det fagfellevurderte tidsskriftet, «Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics» (RAA).
Forskerne sammenligner i alt 16 forskjellige estimater av strålingsvariasjoner fra sola, inklusive data som brukes av IPCC. Disse sammenlignes med 26 forskjellige estimater av temperaturvariasjoner på jordas nordlige halvkule siden 1850 (sortert i fem kategorier), inklusive datasett brukt av IPCC. Grunnen til at rapporten fokuserer på nordlige halvkule er at her finnes lengere og fyldigere dataserier enn for den sørlige halvkule. Men vi antar at våre resultater er globalt gyldige.
Vår undersøkelse viser at forskere kommer til motsatte konklusjoner om årsaken til de observerte klimavariasjoner, avhengig av hvilke datasett som brukes. I figurene ovenfor viser grafene på venstre side hvordan hele temperaturutviklingen kan forklares ved menneskelig aktivitet (CO2 utslipp) hvis temperaturserier som inkluderer temperaturer målt i byer og tettsteder (flyplasser) brukes sammen med serier som viser beskjedne variasjoner i solutstråling. De menneskeskapte bidragene er da 0,84°C per hundre år og de naturlige bidrag fra sol og vulkaner omtrent null. Grafene på høyre side viser at mesteparten av temperaturøkningen skyldes sol og vulkaner dersom vi bruker temperaturdata utenfor byer og tettsteder og soldata med variasjoner.
I den 6. rapporten fra FNs-klimapanel (2021/2022) brukes dataserier som vist til venstre med målestasjoner fra byer og tettsteder i hele verden, og lite eller ingen solvariasjoner. FNs klimarapport unnlater å fortelle om forskning som viser at temperatur utenom byer og tettsteder stiger langsommere og at mange forskere har funnet at sola varier langt mer enn de måleseriene klimapanelet bruker, samtidig som de hevder at det er konsensus blant forskerne om at deres tolkning er rett.
Når klimapanelet ikke er i stand til å gi en riktig fremstilling av forskningen på feltet, må panelets konklusjoner avvises som premature. Mer forsking er nødvendig for å oppklare årsaken til de forskjellige tolkingene og finne en begrunnelse for at den ene tolkningen er riktigere enn den andre.
Vår konklusjon er at klimapanelets konklusjoner om menneskers påvirking av jordas klima ikke representerer akseptabel forskning
Uttalelser fra deltagende forskere
Dr. Ronan Connolly, ved «Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences» (CERES), uttaler som hovedforfatter for studien:
«The IPCC is mandated to find a consensus on the causes of climate change. I understand the political usefulness of having a consensus view in that it makes things easier for politicians. However, science doesn’t work by consensus. In fact, science thrives best when scientists are allowed to disagree with each other and to investigate the various reasons for disagreement. I fear that by effectively only considering the datasets and studies that support their chosen narrative, the IPCC have seriously hampered scientific progress into genuinely understanding the causes of recent and future climate change. I am particularly disturbed by their inability to satisfactorily explain the rural temperature trends».
Nicola Scafetta, Professor of Oceanography and Atmospheric Physics at the University of Naples Federico II (Italy):
«The possible contribution of the sun to the 20th-century global warming greatly depends on the specific solar and climatic records that are adopted for the analysis. The issue is crucial because the current claim of the IPCC that the sun has had a negligible effect on the post-industrial climate warming is only based on global circulation model predictions that are compared against climatic records, which are likely affected by non-climatic warming biases (such as those related to the urbanization), and that are produced using solar forcing functions, which are obtained with total solar irradiance records that present the smallest secular variability (while ignoring the solar studies pointing to a much larger solar variability that show also a different modulation that better correlates with the climatic ones). The consequence of such an approach is that the natural component of climate change is minimized, while the anthropogenic one is maximized. Both solar and climate scientists will find the RAA study useful and timely, as it highlights and addresses this very issue.»
Richard C. Willson, Principal Investigator in charge of NASA’s ACRIM series of Sun-monitoring Total Solar Irradiance satellite experiments (U.S.A.):
«Contrary to the findings of the IPCC, scientific observations in recent decades have demonstrated that there is no ‘climate change crisis’. The concept that’s devolved into the failed CO2 anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis is based on the flawed predictions of imprecise 1980’s vintage global circulation models that have failed to match observational data both since and prior to their fabrication.
The Earth’s climate is determined primarily by the radiation it receives from the Sun. The amount of solar radiation the Earth receives has natural variabilities caused by both variations in the intrinsic amount of radiation emitted by the Sun and by variations in the Earth-Sun geometry caused by planetary rotational and orbital variations. Together these natural variations cause the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) at the Earth to vary cyclically on a number of known periodicities that are synchronized with known past climate changes.»
Willie Soon, at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES), who also has been researching sun/climate relationships at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (U.S.A.) since 1991:
«We know that the Sun is the primary source of energy for the Earth’s atmosphere. So, it always was an obvious potential contributor to recent climate change. My own research over the last 31 years into the behavior of stars that are similar to our Sun, shows that solar variability is the norm, not the exception. For this reason, the Sun’s role in recent climate change should never have been as systematically undermined as it was by the IPCC’s reports. Hopefully, this systematic review of the many unresolved and ongoing challenges and complexities of Sun/climate relationships can help the scientific community return to a more comprehensive and realistic approach to understanding climate change.»
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