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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/09/01/global-temperatur-august-2021/
Global temperatur august 2021.
- september 1, 2021
- 22:54
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk
Vi har temperaturdata for august fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for august er med 0,17 o C lite ned fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. August 2021 er med (0,17 o C) lite ned fra forrige måneds (0,20 o C).
- Nordlige halvkule noe ned til 0,27 o C, fra 0,33 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule nær uendret 0,08 o C, fra 0,07 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene noe ned til 0,07 o C, fra 0,13 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 klart ned til 0,33 o C, fra 0,58 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis klart opp til 0,83 o C, fra 0,43 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia kraftig ned til -0,02 o C, fra 0,80 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.
Temperaturtrend
Klimapanelets hovedrapport fra 2013/14 oppgir trenden i observasjonene, basert på bakkemålt temperatur (WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010): «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012».
For de som er interessert i oppvarmingstrenden i UAH-observasjonene siden januar 1979, uten å ta hensyn til trendskiftet i 1998, så opplyser Dr. Spencer at denne nå har falt fra 0,14o C til 0,13o C pr tiår.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.
NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (30. aug.) nøytral status nå, og en La Niña sesong fra høsten og gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. La Niña-sesongen ser ifølge modellene ut til å bli svak med varighet til april/mai.
Meteorologene i Australia melder nøytrale forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet (sydlige halvkule). De viser i en analyse 31. august til at modellene viser nedkjøling av havtemperatur,og 2 av 7 modeller viser La Niña-forhold fra høsten av, de øvrige mer moderat nedkjøling. For det meste av Australia medfører dette noe mer nedbør.
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